EXPERIMENTAL IDEAS FOR PRO PLAY

[XXVV]

Two notes to add.
The recent results by JL on the use of the standard D+C demonstrates that there are winning cycles in both ways the method can be played. These results can be enhanced by timing of entry and exit.
I find the reversed bet however smarter in application because of higher win to cost ratio.

Also yesterday in live play I observed how you can turn a disadvantage into a short trend massive opportunity. One of my techniques to target a particular street ( one in four, ie 3 streets) was blocked and was clearly not going to work until one trigger finally operated. in the meantime a series of repeating six lines were operational and numbers like 17,18,7,28,29.9.20,31 were repeating.
In 7 spins I made a 300% return on RB using this short trend, which soon corrected.
This could be played with high value units. You don't need to stay around for long games but you do need to be alert and responsive and get out once the trend has finished or your goal is achieved.

[XXVV]

Short Trends

We can refer to this again and again. With a raft of techniques that you have become familiar with and have tested so you know the bet characteristics, strengths and weaknesses, and the general rate of earning (potential), when you observe a spread of say 15-20 prior spins before you start to play, then you can assess the priorities. Which bets are working and which are blocked.

You can go with the flow and if a technique is on a streak then climb on, but dont overstay. Go in only after pre-selection of a win goal, and dont permit a re-trace to erase your gains. Better to leave +1 than walking away discouraged -20.

Conversely, when a method is blocked, this also presents an opportunity by reversing your approach or identifying the blocking characteristics, and attacking these for a short term trend.
At the end of the year I will publish the 10,000 live spin results from this tour on a few different methods for comparison.

[XXVV]

When I say short trends, I mean short. These can be 3 spins or more once the characteristic has been noted. I often find it unlikely that the trend will abruptly end as asoon as you are on board. This would be the fear of amateurs. But in lengthy observations and practical play you can haul in short term profit as long as you cease as soon as your profit goal is achieved or the pattern breaks up.
Updating the live spin results on the reverse D+C at 7400 live spins, the uptrend has reverted to strong climb.

I will set out the full result at 10,000 but I have graphed the progress and that helps. The correction phase lasted from 500 to 750 spins ( thats about 10 consecutive sessions) and hit the step 7 hardest of course, but both flat and step 7 stuttered. There seems to be two rates of climb - steep and mild, then there is correction and for flat a horizontal phase. As i emphasise these results would be mitigated in correction by 'overview' and using discrimination when to stop especially. If 5 consecutive losses when you climb on that is a sure sign the tide is out, but as today on columns if you get hit,hit,hit,hit and then a sequence os 2,3 and 1 outcomes in a 70 spin sequence before it cooled off that is a great result.

Flat + 296 *       Step7 +444*
* indicates all time high

[XXVV]

Once again I want to emphasise the fine work promoted by John Patrick (JP) in his Advanced Roulette, particularly with regard to Money Management.
It seems so many may have appropriated his ideas without due credit, and I include in that the words of Charles Scammer with his 'left pocket' strategy.
The concept of Guarantees and Excess being added to the Win Target allocations and the continual yet conservative allocation of these resources based on a conservative and achievable 20% return on RB is a brilliant strategy.
I refer you to the text for detail but to incorporate these techniques into your play will make the difference between being an Amateur and a Professional.
There are many many play techniques that can be used to win. Sure some bets are smarter than others, and yes there may be some bets that overall have a winning edge, given suitable 'overview' discretion for entry and exit. I certainly have found some of these but even with a 5% or more net edge you will still lose occasionally with Ecart swing. In many cases it is the exit timing which is the most importan factor. It may be after one spin, or a hundred.
What I seem to be finding is that despite our quests for methods, and I have spent over 20 years on that Quest, it is in the management and of course the self management, that will determine whether you win more than you lose.
And if its the case that you are a net loser, then stop right now and totally re-construct your entire approach. Thats the workshop.
It is evident we will not eventually learn to win every session, because we are dealing with Random Reality, albeit in a controlled range in the casino, but if we mitigate the losses and enhance the gains, then that is professional play which can always be tuned upward for improvement. there is no limit!
You get to the stage where there is a healthy balance of reality check and self knowledge, and you can enjoy play and never need to emotionally over-react to any outcome. As they say its par for the course.
Looking forward to that happy day and realisation. Just over the next hill......

[XXVV]

Recent observations with live play illustrate the beauty and the wonder of randomness which is so misunderstood or not even glimpsed by most.
Patterns emerge as short traces and then break up, fragment, like the traces of the sub atomic particles seen momentarily in the records of the vast and powerful accelerators used in particle physics research.
Some particles are in that twilight realm of materialisation and non material activity.
Just so the short term patterns/ trends we can make out in the number outcomes in roulette are marvellous and show what it is like to be on the threshold of exciting research.
This note is also to wish all readers a magnificent Solstice, whether in the southern or northern hemispheres. This is a powerful time.
Best XXVV.

[XXVV]

Further to the understanding, or lack thereof, of randomness.
Where I am located we have just experienced a 'cluster' of 'aftershock' earthquakes.
Prior to this there had been no major action for past 3-6 months.
The experts ( who admit they know little in this field of prediction of EQ) stated prior to this we had a diminishing 10% probability of an EQ of M6.0 or greater.
This just happened.
Cold comfort that the probabilities have all been re-distributed.
The neat spread of 5 big EQ's on yet another fault only just discovered, and worryingly, just off the coast, produced a formidable cluster. Horrible to experience but an example of randomness in Nature.
It is easy to be wise after the event.
Reminds me of roulette.
Also during 'the experience' it is difficult to be sure that the diminishing power of these events is to be accurate and believed. Also the real power actually experienced actually depends on location, proximity and depth of the event. At the time you wonder if the building will come down around you.
When you go and lie on the grass/ the earth after such an event(s) you can feel the earth quivering in constant action.
It is truly awesome in the real sense of the word.
We know little of randomness.

[XXVV]

The goal that is now shaping for 2012 in the world of roulette for me is to determine what is the most effective, the most efficient bet, the most commercial bet in the calculating cold objective professional way that 'professional' apparently implies.
This choice has really been brought home to me when I review the catalogue, the arsenal of methods collected and developed.
There have been some tough lessons in 2011.
However for those tests and trials I am grateful because it has made me question everything.
At this stage the answer appears to be directing toward the reverse bet, the reverse of the D+C, when it is applied to either dozens or columns or both, and with the added bonus ( and complication) of playing zero with an additional RB.
Reasons for this choice :
The bet is simple and fast to calculate and place.
The bet has a positive return in that a win earns +2 and a loss only -1.
RB need be small if played flat or 7 steps or WP*
* Whittacker progression ( how to never lose, at least approximately anyway)
Bet appears to have a positive edge**
** Recent 3 month play has provided + 9000 spins witnessed or played
Flat staking result +360 units and 7 step result +560 and both at all time high results in a steady climb with only minor retracements.
Flat RB suggest 100 units
7 Step RB suggest 100 units ( individual RB is 21 units)
There may be periods of pause or retracement but also periodically profits will shoot forward.
Suggests to me reason for the edge is two fold :
Incorporation of Zero into play to reduce length of losing streaks
Independent of this the results would still show positive growth but slower, and this is positive because it is a reversal of a method that although clever, is a losing method, ie the D+C. Simply by reversing this you win but only in the long term. There will be short aberrations in both directions which may confuse you and otherwise raise false hope. I have tested over 50,000 spins to arrive at my realisation over the past 9 months and this is a robust sample.
The reverse bet is forgiving as it quickly repairs human error of judgement, ie mistakes.
By covering 12 inside numbers as a whole it is less specific, ie more generic, than the clever bets that target individual or smaller groups of numbers.
Most importantly, the more specific you target, the more vulnerable you may be to randomness.
Thus in the generic sense the bet is also forgiving. It is a smart bet.
It is an even smarter bet when you incorporate context and more carefully select your entry and exit points, that is if you even choose to enter at all.
10% of all games, ie session starts, are best avoided.
Overall the bet performance can be improved by +30% above the rate of return quoted above by applying the XX, YY and ZZ notations and overviews my threads have noted or hinted at. They are not so mysterious, just various degrees of measurement of moving averages based on immediate context results of the current tested session whether virtual or actual.
There we are, its only December 27 ( here anyway), and I have answered next year's question. That is why I like to contribute to this Forum. Its an opportunity to think clearly and write concisely and to share some worthwhile information.
Overlay and apply the Money Management and Self Management disciplines recently introduced (thankyou JP) and you have a formidable approach to 2012.

Have a very enjoyable, happy and most importantly, a very prosperous New Year.
Best XXVV

[XXVV]

Best 2012 to all readers.
Here is the summary for the Reverse Bet D+C ( including zero cover) played over past 3 months live.
The results are set out step by step also.
RB for flat and for step 7 short stop progression suggest at least 200 units for each ( 21 RB for step 7 and thus this covers about 10 banks). Very conservative.
All play has been 'steamroller' and just keep going with no overview or discretion as to stop or start. Had such been applied results would be improved by 30-50%.

                   Flat                  Step 7
1000            +25                 +40
2000            +115               +192
3000            +146               +283
4000            +176               +348
5000            +226               +396
6000            +224               +364
7000            +268               +384
8000            +345               +532
9000            +355               +565
10000          +361               +670

Note in both cases that there were phases of about 2000 spins where progress was halted and re-traced a little. That is the nature of flat staking or relatively flat staking. Hence the conservative multiple RB.
By applying Whittacker Progression there was no phase which was unplayable and the zero spread prevented long devastating streaks of loss. The longest out phase was a modest 14 on one game and it was followed by several 1 games to enable clearance.
More challenging was one game where there were a few 9  and 7 games in a short cluster but even those soon cleared by being patient and even a lumpy progression approach would have mitigated damage.
Real challenge is handling 2000 spins, ie say 20 sessions where there was no progress or even a backward fall. That would stall most players and if you started like that it would be discouraging.
Hence apply 'overview' XX and YY moving averages for extra security.
I will write soon on a more commercial approach to professional play and the way I am managing to handle this. Ideas and concepts at this stage but I can only continue to praise the writings of John Patrick and even the application of his 'simple' methods, given wise management that he applies to money, and most importantly self.
Best for the New Year.
XXVV

[Nickmsi]

 Best wishes to you as well  . . .  and thank you for your informative and well written topics.


I have had more fun running down the paths of enlightenment that you have shown in several of your posts, such as, finales, short term trends, reverse betting, moving averages etc.


What I like is that you have given us some tools to grow our own food rather than just hand us a loaf of bread.


Looking forward to your posts in 2012.


Nick

[XXVV]

Thanks Nick
Recent experiments I have had with hybrid bets have shown mixed results. Trying to do too much and be too clever can be a trap.
One criterion that is essential in live professional play is simplicity.
The method I have referred to above is a reversal of a clever bet devised by Scooby Doo.
I like the simplicity of his method and it churns out fast data on both dozens and columns if desired.
Of course each is equivalent. It is a fallacy that any EC or column/ dozen bet is more favourable than any other. Such thoughts are based on too little data in analysis. Of course in the short term as in any trend, there will be a bias,  but long term the results of RB, OE, HL or Doz and Col will be equivalent in performance .
The cols or doz selections when reversed make the bet a smarter (better than clever) bet as it is paying better returns in relation to risk and then if you apply an overview and exercise patience and discrimination, then this bet will show you better returns than the financial markets.
More on this later, but also note that it is also a forgiving bet allowing occasional human error without catastrophic results, and it is not number specific so also is forgiving in its general clustering of 12 numbers as targets.
When you decide to play seriously bring sufficient resources and rather than being tempted to wander because of relatively slow returns, make the unit value higher, or at least if starting low ( smart) build up the unit value step by step asap.
Best
XXVV

[XXVV]

The hybrid bet I referred to is an interesting combination of several methods using finales, repeat numbers and repeating finales.
When first devised I thought it clever because it really played for an ultimate "coup" on average every 20-25 spins or so, sometimes less, sometimes more, and in the interim produced (often but not always) lots of mini coups, thus producing cashflow and reducing exposure.
Nice in theory but I have found that it might go fine for sessions and then occasionally an errant and delayed coup would be without prior cash hits so the RB required was 500 units plus. This is counter productive because it also entails progression when needed.
The WP applied to the dozens or columns though is an easier approach.
JP put it so well that what we seek is to start with a minimum outlay and climb onto a short term trend and then accelerate staking within reason while the streak continues. If it goes wrong we get off quickly also.
This is the simplicity we need because there are many variables in this game when we factor in the frailties of our human nature.
Lets be realistic and if we were a market trader and they have certain characteristics which are not necessarily professional with randomness and luck factoring heavily very often then we would be not so concerned with 'human nature' and frailties. In their environment it is full on and with a lot of technical support, often weighing up potential loss in a trade.
In roulette it is up to the individual to be tested alone.
Heed the truth told by JP at the end of his book.
It is not an easy path at all, but with practice and patience our average performance will gradually improve. But dont be too hard on yourself. It s a tough game.
Best
XXVV

[XXVV]

Over the coming weeks I will explore some successful commercial bets which combine simplicity with smarter qualities, and still provide the satisfaction of significant coups.
It is a matter of reading the game, patience, and timing.
Also I must emphasise, in order to arrive at some of these realisations I have had to make a lot of earlier mistakes.
In my view we are on this journey together and I will share some insights, in principle but also with some specifics, so as in helping myself I am helping others and vice versa.
The essence of all of this you will find boils down to some key ingredients. That recipe is what we are working toward. Then its practice, practice, practice!
Best
XXVV

[XXVV]

As promised I am going to provide some information on my current campaign live professional play.  Being located close to a brilliant local boutique casino I play every day.
I will share some methods in general terms ( detail will be left to the reader to design) and will report on success and failure.
As a general overview strategy I am dividing my attack into two broad policies : one is to use  the reverse bet as described from D+C and apply it strictly and following the advice from JP keep base units minimum and attack short term trends. The RB is small but in 10 reserve parcels. Goal is to compound session RB daily by 10% on average. An overview using YY moving average will provide a useful radar for when to enter and exit. Session goal will also cut in. Even with a definitive edge in our favour there will still be losses and the impact of these has to be mitigated and the successes celebrated and enhanced.
The other attack is a more discretionary RB for several excellent methods that are in the arsenal and which from time to time will shine out as appropriate to call upon.
At this stage the two funds are equal and as a weird little game within a game they will compete with one another. One team will be red, the other pale blue. One has a local Manager, the other, an Italian import.
At the end of the month progress will be reported.
It may be a case of the tortoise and the hare but we shall see, and adjustments will be made after 2 weeks and review.
Last but not least I want to thank Mr J for his blog. It is great to hear about real live play success.

[XXVV]

As an aside, one definition of professionalism is 'success' in a chosen field.
That means making more money than you lose. In other words you derive an income that is postive, ie in the black.
If that were not so you would be indulging in self delusion, whether tax loss or otherwise.
The entire point of professionalism is to raise your game, and endeavour to achieve new highs in performance. ( If you were not a 'success' within a reasonable period of time you would direct your efforts in another field of endeavour.)
There will be challenges, setbacks and frustrations, but the goal is to achieve profit and then build on that with focus, determination and realistic self analysis, together with game analysis and review to reach ever new levels of skill and achievement.
In roulette the contest is forever with yourself ( your relative self knowledge) and reaching levels of  consistency that gradually improve. There is no reason why this cannot be achieved and so the fascinating challenge of roulette for the individual.
As I have recently paraphrased it is clear we are relatively flawed in our biased judgments and often false optimism. Nevertheless, with expansive study of random behaviour, and lots of practice, and good will, and huge preparation effort, we can progress as a 'young' professional and move forward. An attitude of wise and understanding overview of our behaviour, even if at times with ironic humour, will assist. It helps to have some peer review as well.
So, in spite of the difficulties, we do our research work. We make plans. We practice and then we take our steps. It is a microcosm of much in life but has the advantage of working with narrower constraints and range of variables.
Next week I will report on some of the success ( with explanation) and some of the failures ( and reasons why) in the casino playing roulette.

[pedro]

XXVV,

Thank you for your very infomative posts,

Looking forward to the next.

Cheers Pedro