EXPERIMENTAL IDEAS FOR PRO PLAY

[XXVV]

Some work on Incremental Analysis (IA) soon to help us look into the future and also some gems from the quaintly titled "Full Time Gambler" (shock horror) of LG Holloway who was decades ahead of his time, and paved the way for true professionals. This book was first published in 1969.

[XXVV]

This is the idea behind IA, and am grateful to a pro colleague for discussing this with me.

We can use an analogy of hunting also, and setting traps, because we know the familar tracks our target(s) will take (in the future) and we know and have measured past, recent and very recent activity. We can almost hear the action. We can certainly sense it intuitively.

Then we wait and remain still, patient.

Its like fishing too isnt it and how many times have these analogies been used - but here I hope with added freshness because the tracking is more efficient and the trap/hook is proven.

Proven by past research and testing. Efficient by use of IA.

So incremental analysis looks at a recent and proven accurate sample of the roulette play, say 20, 50 or 100 spins. 50 is particularly useful.

Then we make two columns left and right.

On the left we test, on the right we set the traps and play.

Divide (say) 25 into 5 groups of 5 spins.

Put them on your left column and as the outcomes unfold, check the results to see if the 'bias'/ skew/ imbalance on the observations of the original 50 spins are still there, or are they changing.

You can go with the flow or if there is clear evidence of a swing in place then on the right hand side in clusters of (say) 5 spins you can set the traps.

Your choice is to go with same or change. If there is no evidence of change stick with the current 'bias'.

If say you are monitoring W and L, then one W after a long losing streak isnt enough, but perhaps 3 out of 5 might be, as you go with the tide.

It is risky to play for change as that may be the Gamblers Fallacy trap you are falling into but that principle is more about wishful thinking than hard evidence which IA can provide, in bite size increments.

The method can apply to streaks of many varieties, and can be de-tuned to say groups of 3, or ramped up to clusters of 7 or 10.

You can see how you can set the trap bets though in small groups.

[XXVV]

The IA approach may be useful of course when you have more time and are in 'virtual space' mode. Am applying this to my testing live spin by spin work thats underway. This is all part of the training for the new campaign in March.

Also here is a little bit from Lou Holloway's book - the original Englishman in New York - but he never got stung!

Some portions of this I will paraphrase so apologies to the Estate but it should result in more sales.

Based on 100,000 spin sample he made a GAP BOOK. Each number was tabulated in terms of the gap figure between hits. Then each split, corner, street, six line, dozen and column, and all EC was "gapped".

This condensed the big run of numbers and gave all a new dimension and the ability to learn the true value of patterns and to avoid being tricked by coincidence.

Totals of every approach were graphed and the peak of every cycle was determined - the key of when to get in and when to get out.

This is the key to what I keep harping on about - setting the parameters based on large scale testing which will give us a (temporary) edge when we apply this overview knowledge to our particular area of opportunity in the game.

Mr Holloway suggests also the following guidelines on repeats. ( You can refer to Roy Ward Dickson as well as some other classic writers).

Twice within 10 spins - follow for a short time.

Three within 20 spins - follow for 10 spins and another ten when hits.

We all have our pet theories on this but this writer was a trail blazer.

What I am excited about is the "gapping" and the staking/ management.

Lyle Stuart gives this man tremendous respect and in fact re-published this edition in 2001 as the originals are out of print.

On that subject, Baccarat ( the mini bac version) can also be a useful adjunct to pro roulette play and the money management aspects that Mr Holloway utilises in several casino games can be cross transferred between roulette streaks and the streaks on that simple game.

Some might call it that but if you can win +USD250K in two Baccarat Tournaments ( as did Lyle Stuart) that is serious enough for me.

Later some research on staking on streaks.

You will gather this 'workshop' has various departments and if I stray into money management or cluster theory please forgive me. This is intended to be an (organised) cuckoo nest collection of lots of shiny 'objects' collected from various sources  ( some very near, some very far) and assembled for our immediate use and benefit when re-assembled and fueled, ready to rumble like Mount Panorama.

[XXVV]

We are looking to capitalise on streaks.

Suggest format into W or L *

* This is Win or Loss of the bet. The bet may be a single spin cycle or a cluster of spins, 2, 3, 4 ,5 or 6 spins say.

Trigger may be a W

....then play on to allow streaks to flow. Streaks are runs of wins. It is a characteristic of natural phenomena that they can cluster in sequence, and if wins are being recorded, a series of W outcomes.

Stop on a L

Re start as a Win is a trigger.

But if encounter two losses in a row this may be your signal that the cycle has ended, or you can trial and error and try to go longer. You will need to conduct 30 session tests to have sufficient data to make a good choice. Recently I received a false signal because I thought by session 11 it was looking so good, it had to be a winner. Not so. Massive reversal over next 10 sessions - way too volatile.

Also vary within these sessions access to various sources of data.

All have large number characteristics, of cycles within cycles within cycles. All samples have their unique characteristics, that is why you dare not reverse engineer a method from one small sample. The 'small' sample can be 20,000 spins. Reverse engineering is fatal.

Weigh up benefit of a W against cost of a L

Easier to balance if the two figures are identical or close.

There is scope here for a lot of trial and error. I have some preferred combinations but you may find better.

Key is to find a consistent generator of streaks.

Streaks may occur 15 -25% of the time depending on the bet selection.

The real profits are made in the streak outcomes , ie more of the same.

Step aside from the choppy stuff, indeed you may put yourself into virtual mode, 50-70% of the play, and just come live when you find a streak is unfolding.

Again you will have to define that but I find 3 or more W outcomes in a sequence are a good sign. Two winning outcomes in row could be a trigger to go live as an idea. These are frontiers of research, although they seem so simple.

Hope this assists. It would be good to hear your experiences. XX VV

[XXVV]

Did I say 80% there with testing.

Not so easy as that - I call it IK - Instant Karma - no sooner do you think you are there and you tell - fatal error.

She is a jealous mistress.

OK now to explore GAP theory and also a more effective trigger and exit for STREAK theory.

Lots of work still to go before Tuesday and if not ready I will just go and watch.

[XXVV]

Clearly a more sophisticated switch ( trigger + exit) is necessary.

It may be wise to exit while still winning if you know the relative spread, duration and percentage of likely streaks.

Those greenfield streaks are what we are out to harvest. A trigger may also be a propensity in a game for the streaks to run as opposed to short brittle chops - lots of noise -not much signal.

It seems also that a simple trio parlay ( ensuring of course you kick off as soon as possible for step one) may be a very good 'compromise'. I am measuring their relative frequency amongst some of the more difficult result sequences also.

The fascinating thing now is transcribing these words/ ideas into concrete rules of action -physically manifesting what you sense is there.

Good Hunting XX VV

[XXVV]

I was also thinking after reviewing test results on attempts to catch streaks, that if I could eliminate the double loss at the end of a 30 game session ( as this was my exit strategy ( crude), in say 50% of the outcomes, I would increase net result by over 500 units, and thus would have had 10 winning sessions out of 10.

The parlay, by definition, is one way of eliminating such wastage. So I will think some more about this idea and re-test spin by spin samples.

[XXVV]

There has been some very interesting work I have been kindly directed to on VLSroulette. Thread by Know When To Quit (KWTQ).

This is a long thread going back 18 months but is well worth some study in a couple of key areas.

The writer uses four or more methods when going to the table and adapts his approach depending on outcome opportunities. His earlier analysis using 'exponential' graphing of outcome patterns in EC outcomes is very useful when after a suitable sample, anomalies can be revealed ( ie far fewer outcomes of say one are than the expected half fewer RR outcomes which is the 'exponential curve' according to the writer). Observing imbalances/such anomalies he plays by overlapping the correction expectation ( take care with gamblers fallacy if utilised too soon) with another imbalance say a loading of H versus L or a sleeper column.

( The logic can be reversed of course and it may be safer to target the warm to hot patterns - same- while they are manifesting rather than a hunch to switch- change.)

Given the 60 seconds available between spins ( often the case) then great organisation and preparation is required. Sometimes leaving a group of spins to play virtually is very wise anyway and a great opportunity for analysis.

The writer clearly utilises his collective experience of 15 years play with a term used by one of my favourite writers 'choosability'. When not carefully managed or without key variables monitored, choosability can be a fickle friend.

KWTQ however appears to handle the wave of information with great skill and also in most recent posts appears to have mined a very fertile part of targetting key numbers, that of 'warm' numbers.

They are between hot and cold and bubble along often with frequency and energy when monitored in cycles of say 37 spins or more.

Combining several overviews with some wise and experienced judgement may mean that luck can be temporarily ignored.

Such play cannot be stated in simple rules, as it is discretionary and rules can be safely broken which would be bewildering for a novice. The writer appears to be consistently successful and I wish him well, but never let that guard down.

The really important points though are the targetting of a section of the wheel at times, and especially the quick and accurate analysis of a sample of data ( say 20 spins or more) to give an exponential analysis. Lets call it EA.

The IA I have been referring to earlier in this thread was for say 5 spins.

EA ,(at 20 + spins) here may look at other factors but is a wonderful tool and I will lease it immediately for my ROBE/BORE work!

The targetting of warm numbers, using some fuzzy logic ( refer matrix work) is a potential goldmine when you can neutralise/ dampen the variation between fizzing frothy warms and cooler and getting colder warms, so as to avoid long and dangerous progressions.

Again it is a matter of setting the ' trap parameters' to define your target.

At the moment I play a method which targets just such opportunities and my selection is simple, probably too simple, in seeking a triple appearance of a previous double appearance candidate within a certain cycle of spins.

Targets can range from one ( ideal) to the most I have ever encountered in one nightmare game, seventeen. Average number of targets encountered in the cycle and the terms I play is slightly less than four, so is frequently an opportunity for a flat staking gain.

I bluntly play flat so regularly take small losses rather than chase the whales.

This is a technique I am now going to revisit thanks to KWTQ and EA.

[XXVV]

Sometimes the obvious solution is right under our noses and we miss it. Its like looking at the test psychology picture - you see one version but just can sometimes be blocked to see the other, reverse version.

Just so. Instead of closing the session with two losses - sure its a signal, but the loss of 30 or 40 units is crazy.

Instead the terms for finish, exit strategy,  are two consecutive wins. Its not hard, and they are not rare.

Difference between the two versions may be +60 units!! Fantastic.

[XXVV]

So far re-testing using this fresh approach on my more difficult games recently reviewed using test data from Macao, Wiesbaden and other German Casinos has been a revelation.

I am also formulating a set of sensible rules so that 'discretion' can be reduced and consistency can be obtained and others can be taught. I will schedule these in the next days given that good results keep flowing.

Some great links also with the thread set up by Esoito under the title finding ways to bet on streaks/trends in the General Discussion section.

I will be honest also, and do state that sometimes too much knowledge can get in the way. I have, in earlier times, sat at a table and been in a state of shock unable to engage the knowledge I have as I was not thoroughly mentally trained and prepared.

It is better to find a very few ways and master them rather than spreading yourself too thin. Sure there will be times when some work better than others and we need flexibility but not at the expense of swift and appropriate action to take advanatge of an opportunity or damage control in a challenging situation.

Looking forward to setting out these rules - about 7 of them I believe.

[XXVV]

This is getting interesting and I have given careful thought to just how much I should say. I still believe in a maxim that self effort is the most rewarding as long as genuine leads and guides are given. I dont know all the answers at all and if I did, anyway it would be foolish to publish all as even then it might not be understood or appreciated. And of course someone will always be able to improve the strategy.

As it is I can make some real headway and from there we can all develop our own valid approaches.

There is a complete matrix of possible outcomes of course, and from showing just a few you will get the picture.

I see it as a sort of chess game with (relatively) optimal solutions given certain prior moves and context.

First it is necessary to agree on target goals that are realistic in the context of the method chosen.

I think +50 to +100 units is good profit for a session which might run 30 -90 mins max.

Realistic bank might be 500 units taking the advice of the great Lou Holloway. Might be 5 sub banks of 100 units though.

Stop loss might be 100 units approx in this context - something that we can quickly recover if we have a relatively consistent method.

To give you some idea of where I am coming from this is for reasonably balanced alternative outcomes, ie Red-Black, Odd-Even, RO/BE-BO/RE, etc.

For larger income on smaller value units (or can play bigger units on outside table) I am tending to play these options with inside table bets now.

This is also because I 'overlap' techniques sometimes to give an extra 'edge' to my targetting.

I break results into W or L for win or loss outcomes and I look for patterns with IA, EA, or streaks and trend patterns. In fact primarily I am hunting streaks.

There can be streaks of W and of course like a mirror, streaks of L, losses.

Each accounts for 20% of outcomes approximately.

Trigger for me now is to climb on after a W.

After a L,  I stop and await a successful W before climbing on again.

No longer do I exit on a LL. How foolish was that!! No wonder my results were so volatile. Now I exit on a preferable WW. Results have improved more than 100% since I changed that perception.

Have a look at the following situations. Then you can extrapolate the rest.

W 
WW
WWW
WWWW 

After 4 consecutive wins there is my profit goal.

L
LL
LLL
LLLL

After 3 consecutive losses even with my circuit breaker in I stop and go virtual until a double WW manifests.

Also

LWWWL
and
WLLWWWW

What about ....

LL  then W
Play on....
LLWL
Play on....
LLWLL
Play on....
LLWLLW
wait
if
LLWLLWW then all clear and go for it...
if
LLWLLWL
you might play the loss as a bet ( reverse)
LLWLLWLL
play the W

Stop loss may cut in by this stage but whatever it would be good to finish on a W and then wait and see.

Runs of losses are as rare as streaks of wins so there is no need to panic but watch the choppy stuff.
Short term patterns or use of EA may help you.

If too hard just write it off and find an easier one to play - strategic retreat.

With my current approach I am obtaining 8/10 or even 9/10 results that are postive in sequences of mini sessions making up a cluster of 30 games for a maxi session. One session can be 10 games , or 5 games depending on duration. One session per day.

If unable to finish on a WW, at least finish on a W, but to that there can be exceptions, see below...

If start shakily or adversely exit at first profit point
eg LLWLWLLWWWLWW

If start well and a bump is hit take the profit if your goal is achieved
eg WWWWL
or WWLWLWW
or WWWL

If start in chop just soldier on and await a triple
eg WLWLWWLLWWW

If you have paused because of adverse chops go virtual and await return of short runs ie a WW for every L, then exit with small profit.

If 3 consecutive losses pause! then wait for the loss streak to abate, and remember they may come in groups of two, so be patient before going back in.

I think you will see my drift here.

For my technique I am preparing a matrix chart that gives me the ideal move for every particular outcome in a series, a bit like Blackjack and Perfect Strategy. Of course this has varied over time as Fuzzy Logic is better understood.

I have a lot of work to prepare this for live play very soon now.

So I hope this helps as food for thought. XXVV

[XXVV]

Adding to these thoughts a couple of C/S principles...

Get in and get out of a game as quickly as possible, dont dally.

Dont ever find yourself in a situation where you have made a modest profit but less than your target and the tide turns and you lose a bet, but still have b/even or close to it. Never place a bet that would extinguish your earlier hard won profit and worse, leave you in loss ( thanks to Arvis for this).

If in a loss situation, say LLL and you are pausing, then get a signal to proceed, WWW, dont struggle to recover all the losses. Mitigate the damage then get out of it asap. For example -41 units is a lot healthier than -105 units, and quicker to replace.

Many games are choppy and if the tide is turning against you, you could step aside for a while and wait for a clearer direction to show. It might be you bet Loss for a while ( ie reverse your bet).

[XXVV]

Reviewing the task ahead I have now considered designating the logical and actual steps in a series of outcomes with a number code and then to use that in a series of statistically sound 100 spin/ 120 spin samples.

e.g. W is a trigger

but it can go WW      (ie 1A)
              or  WL       (ie 1B)
then              WWW  (ie 2A)  etc etc    

From that evidence I will tabulate the results and that may help weight the preferred bets to give the best return in net units in a real sequence of live play. There will always be the best option plays. These are what I am trying to find and then apply consistently.

This can also be done in a W and L format to study the patterns and again test the streak frequency theory.

It is a logical process and while going through live play situations will also be recording results to code and tabulate that night in the hotel.

Hope to have some data to publish early next week.

Please note what I am doing is VERY different from straight EC outcome play, which would have alternate best strategy play. Each individual player will need to tune their particular method of play and choice of bet to a unique matrix.

What I am trying to do, in helping myself, is to show in principle the steps in the process so others can apply and benefit directly.

[XXVV]

Here is the result of a first study of 111 spins from German Casino data.

Purpose of this study is to investigate the sequence of Win (W) and Loss(L)outcomes from results.

This is not spin by spin live response but review of past data.

Simple W is trigger and L is a stop with restart a W.

There are deliberately no other pause signals in this approach ( even after 3 consecutive losses), as I am not interested in the overall + or - result. It is irrelevant.

32 W
29 L  (overall result -129 units)

Best fast result was 5W-1L  after 15 spins   (+54 units)

Best overall result after 50 spins  13W-5L     (+90 units)

Best after first WW signal exit       3W-1L      (+24 units)
and next signal WW opportunity    8W-4L     (+36 units)


With this approach I am analysing data in elements ( note code as earlier suggested).

After each signal to stop the outcome sequence is broken and hence an element is isolated, eg:

W
L
----                 or     WL/ WWL/ L/ WL
W
W
L
----
L
----
W
L
----

I will print out the full sequence of 111 spins after this.

L  after30 spins 2      after 111 spins 12

WL                   2                                8

WWL                1                                6

WWWL             1                                1

WWWWL          2                                2

You can see that the EA analysis after 30 spins shows a big skew to streaks and that there was a shortfall of single L plays at that stage (re,member exponential analysis).

Thus in the following 81 spins there were 10 L and 6 WL elements.

This would give very good earning opportunity by playing for a Loss ( a reversal) which would give  +20 for a success and -16 for a failure.

This was a good example of taking a streak opportunity when it materialised and taking profit before it ( as always) corrected later in the cycle.

This is the series outcome

WL/ WWWWL/ WL/ L/ WWWWL/ WWWL/ L/ WWL/ WWL/ L/ WL/ L/ WL/ L/ L/ WL/WL/L/ WWL/ WWL/WWL/ WL/ L/ L/ WL/ L/ WWL/L/ L/ WWL/

Am going through several of these 111 spin sequences in order to ascertain the general characteristics. These outcomes have been set out from the point of view of W priority and there are three elements that streak in 17 overall, ie about 20%.

When reversed and looked at from an L priority there are also three L streak elements ( defined as three or longer of W or L).

Clearly the benefit of an exit strategy after a WW is demonstrated; also the benefit of seizing an opportunity and taking profit before the inevitable correction ( the true nature of roulette). As the correction swings, the reverse strategy can be applied and an equivalent profit taken on the other side.

Clearly the cycle nature of the game has to be read accurately and quickly.

I find that streaks of a similar nature cluster in the short cycles.

Hope this helps and I will be applying this overview in live play, spin by spin decision making, when targetting streaks.

[XXVV]

Well a lot of live play experience since last post and there are several key points to emphasise, learn from and apply for future work.

First I must acknowledge fresh sources and hence to Lyle Stuart's company for publishing R.D. Ellison's book (2002) on Roulette : Gambling to Win.

Second to thank JohnLegend and S/Doo for developing a couple of brilliant plays, but in particular the work on (Choppy) Dozens -"Two of a Kind" which at the time of writing is being developed on his thread under Roulette Systems.

John makes those earlier key points that a pro method has to have regular and reliable strikes, and then to apply good banking management with a professional and consistent self discipline.

I am averse to progressions but a short stepped progression under tested conditions may be appropriate here. It seems as JohnL states that streaks of wins may be quite extensive with this method and certainly that is what I am foremost searching for amongst several options.

This method appears to have streaks of 10 + quite frequently but substantial testing is necessary because how often is it that 2000 'games' may be analysed ( say 3000 spins) yet early results can be misleading.

So far my own experience has been very good but I will still be monitoring for test purposes individual 100 spin sessions with spins taken from various live casino sources.

The advice here is go for sets of +5 points in groups, with a gradually increasing unit value as your bank grows in value.

Step by step by step with great patience, and with great respect to be shown to your 'adversary'- ie the casino house edge.

I play with sufficient unit value to be able to permit a small 'insurance' bet to cover zero so that should that happen the effect is a small bonus.

This is the luxury of a 35-1 payout versus 1-2 odds on playing 2 dozens.

We all agree a key factor here is recognise the role of the correction factors - clusters of Loss. Get out before they come or at their first appearance unless you switch your bet to catch them thus targetting 2-1 action. .........     ( reverse bet). Remember this is the key advantage you have over the House. You can leave at any time. Quit while ahead wherever possible.

The material in R.D Ellison's book is direct and for the professional regarding advice in strategy and psychology.

There are substantial advantages now ( even more so than when the book was published) to play with reputable internet casinos that are genuine live feeds.

Last night I tuned to Bet 365 from Latvia, then to Asia and my CNN live feed on SKY matched their live feed of CNN in the background of the wheel, to the second.

Keeping a simple bet is preferable in these situations, although preferable to avoid complex progressions in case of technical feed problems. The other night when I had major inside bets I did have problems but this I believe was coincidental and principal outside bets avoid this problem for speed of placement and avoidance of error by the player.

As R.D. Ellison points out when we walk into the Dragon's Den - the B+M Casino:  then we are subject to all their counter and subversive measures to distract , tire and confuse us, as well as appealing to our inner personality enemy 'compulsive' elements.

It is an appealing case for the internet casinos who can supply feed at high efficiency and low cost in overhead for them. You can play in the comfort of your favourite surroundings.

As professional players we must seek to minimise our negative risk exposures. There are pros and cons listed in his book for various casino types but with the advent of genuine and well managed live feed casinos then this is the place to build the pro bank and avoid all the hidden costs and extras of the travel destinations.

Very different to the romantic notions we may harbour I know, but the reality is why make the pathway extra hard - it is tough enough anyway.

In due course there can be room for all experience, but first must come the toughening, tempering process of discipline, discipline and more discipline.

Also suggest spreading play over say at least three casinos so as to not overload or overstay your welcome in any one place. Test all for speed of withdrawal facilities first. Keep your floating balance modest.

Remember as a constant -"The True Nature of Roulette".

You are given access to trends and short term edge - read this and take advantage of this and then exit fast.

It is a reading of the game, and with JohnL's excellent method judging the placement of entry and exit to avoid in conventional play the correction phases of loss.

The test samples need to be sufficiently large to say with some conviction and proof that the most frequent nature of sequences is streaks between corrective clusters. Measure those loss passages. Analyse just how bad they can be and at what point you may have to exit and take a loss.

Some open questions.....

Is it possible to play this method flat staking? Or if not what is the most risk averse stepped progression? Realise how smart your opponent is - always awaiting your mistake and over extension. See the roulette game as interactive at all times and never leave your guard down.

Can the method be applied to columns?

Can the dozen and column analysis overlap?

Can other methods overlap with the trending for chop/ change in the dozen sequences?

I know it is dangerous/ extra risky to play two methods simultaneously unless you weigh carefully the needs of each and regularity of strikes in each.

To keep the purity and focus of one principal method is probably the best way. If that method is out of phase/ in correction mode then leave the game and take a small loss if necessary. Start afresh elsewhere is best, after a break. Make your profit and sleep on it. Enjoy it.