EXPERIMENTAL IDEAS FOR PRO PLAY

[XXVV]

Synchronicity is a remarkable phenomenon, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb may be correct in stating we are (presently) not good at dealing with randomness, but there are wonders abounding in this life which forever break previous (mis)understandings.


An example of this is the Nobel Prize for Chemistry this year going to an individual ( Daniel Shechtman in Israel for his work on quasicrystals)  who was once publicly humiliated by Linus Pauling who said that  there is no such thing as quasicrystals only quasi-scientists. Such bitchy behaviour from individuals who should know better no longer surprises me, and in fact we need to open our eyes to so-called experts.


The Nobel Prize was awarded for the work in crystallography-quasicrystals- where this man's efforts in the face of several decades of adversity and abuse showed that patterns are formed which are non repeating. This was previously believed impossible.


Such imagery was indeed observed by the brilliant Moslem culture of the Alhambrah Palace in Spain
many centuries ago. From that culture the first universities emerged.


Just so, through the writings of Ben Mezrich on the MIT Blackjack team(s) that hit Vegas, the notion of 'a running count' so useful in reading the BJ game, may be able to be applied to Roulette.


That's my theory anyway. I am certainly not going to publish that openly in the Forum where all and sundry, including our gracious B+M hosts, will eagerly absorb the information. Suffice to say that I have found several ways to monitor the ebb and flow of the game, the Ecart/ Equilibre ratios, and I have mentioned already several aspects of this theory where it can be applied to individual bets.


However it was the coming together of the writings of Taleb, and Mezrich and others that energised this quest.


Don't believe anything you read from so-called experts or the nay-sayers who like to comment from time to time in this Forum. They all have personal agendas, from insecurities to blinkers in thinking, to commercial vested interests


Me?  I just like to believe anything is possible, and to side with Pascal who placed the safest bets.


Best
XXVV

[pedro]

XXVV,

Another great post, keep up the good work.


Thank you

[XXVV]

I have been exploring the notion of the Running Count as applied to Roulette.


Have completed several large samples from live spin samples suitably formatted to deal with finales betting.


By applying a couple of overlays, and one in particular that is the toughest control, about 55 to 60% of potential bets are eliminated before play.


I record the overall mean averages of bet outcomes 'blind' and then compare the mean average outcomes on the bets actually made. There is a consistent effect that is worthwhile.


To give you some direction where to research ideas for these tools, look at moving averages applied to results over various spans. By trial and error test for the most appropriate impacts.


Given sufficient samples, ie greater than 100 game samples, then you will note the effect of efficiency.


If the 100 games were all above the cut off figure, ie the results were Ecart skewed in a corrective mode, then you might not have one qualifying game.


That has happened in some of my samples.


Of course that's a great result.


Generally with the Finales game in the format I play ( and there are several possibles) a game will average between 10 to 15 spins, with some games shorter and a few longer.


My goal is purely to improve bet efficiency and in so doing from time to time outcomes will be trapped which will exceed/ negate the house edge, and you will harvest short cycle profits.


Intrinsic to my work also and which is a theory I look to 'seamlessly' link results from sessions (which themselves are deliberately lengthy, ie +300 spins) in my 'personal universe' of results.


Good Hunting


XXVV

[XXVV]

It might be useful to explore the notion of Running Count and then True Count, by transferring the ideas across from BJ.


Additional to moving averages might be a figure of + or - added to an ongoing total ( that commenced at zero balance) so as to show the relative skew or deviation in a passage of play.


Every bet will have its unique characteristics but all are influenced by these tides.


This is work in progress for me and am simply thinking aloud.


The moving average method though definitely does have merit, so at this time am just considering alternative ideas.

[catalyst]

dear XXVV
the notion of of Running Count, True Count or moving averages provide a protective cocoon for a bet to be worth. your 'mathematical model' is the creation of 'justified time' in the length of 'justified spins' in which bet efficiency are materialized. in my testing of around 15 games( each 300 spins = 4500 spins) for the Carsch sector method, i have noticed the existenc of 'justified time' in which bets can be placed to tap the winnings through almost flat betting or extended slow progression. it could be coincidence as i have also experienced 300-spin-length is an ideal form for 'inside bet' to be materialized unless it is an 'EC Bet' in which profit realization could be tapped through higher value of unit and shorter spin length.

you have crystallized your various efforts in this forum to explain few things mentioned above -the fundamental concepts of roulette - as manifestations of a single underlying force 'time'.

your research is inspiring and assisting  me to formulate my game.

thanks
catalyst

[XXVV]

The use of BJ as a model from which to extend ideas to roulette is deliberately spurious as in BJ of course there is a gradual reduction in possible outcomes toward a much more likely set of scenarios which occasionally can tip or tilt the scales in favour of the player. Similarly poker.


Hence the BJ running count is a general guide by adding or subtracting factors in accordance with card outcomes being small or large and the true count being a further detail arrived at by observation of the decks remaining to be played. Fewer cards in the deck the more significant the count becomes.


There are casino counter measures to all of that but that was the general early basis used by the MIT team before they got into even more brilliant observation techniques to identify opportunities.


Roulette of course does not have a diminishing source and appears to start every spin with a clean slate.


However it is not as simple as that and there are threads of 'historical linkage' and some 'glue forces' at work that under certain circumstances appear to have an impact so that we can identify short term short cycle opportunities.

Certainly there are Ecart/ Equilibre cycles that swing to enable deviations from the expected norm and if we can read these natural phenomena then we can make progress.


Yes, it seems these cycles can resonate at certain durations and this is something we can look into.
The 37 variables suggest 37 spin cycles as one fundamental observation. The one third principle of outcomes ( the so called Law of the Third) is another. Thus multiples of 37 may have a bearing, and we can look at individual number outcomes and sleeper spin numbers but then you get into extreme events where you must take protection from random behaviour by a chosen stop loss to protect from the unthinkable.


Moving averages can apply to results on small or larger cycles, and probably medium as well. They all three have their uses. A method can be used to assign loading of scoring points for the various cycles. The medium scale may be the most practical. Trial and error for the appropriate time scale for these short, medium and long scales will be necessary and I do not claim to have the best solutions yet.


Every bet has unique characteristics but if you are working with a particular family of bets, say finales, and you come to know one member of the family of options quite well, then the characteristics of the bet can be measured and the outliers and mean average can be marked. Extreme deviations can be measured by heuristics, and this data can be so useful once a sufficient sample is taken. To be robust you may need 10,000 + spins.


Then another variable to add to the moving average or formula can be the measure of game durations, ie spin numbers required to trap a winning bet.


For one bet I use this variation moves between 3 and 17+.


High points can be given to all outcomes 10 or less, or better 7 or less.


The mean average is actually 10 over big samples so that is nicely symmetrical.


Its not always a symmetrical bell curve though with bet outcomes. Refer to Taleb's book on randomness.


It is sometimes the aberrations to the curve that can offer the opportunities and I have found some of these by long searching in other areas of roulette outcomes.


More soon.

[XXVV]

As I will be away for a while now on business, here is a short summary of my position.


I have applied the moving average calculations and the average game spin duration to one of the Finales Bets that are available. There are several to choose from.


In order to dampen or reduce volatility however I play a target of a particular finale group after it has appeared twice, and then target a third appearance of that group. You have the choice to play this thread alone or as I do which is combine that finales group with other qualifying finales groups once they qualify prior to any one of the groups winning by way of a third appearance. Games can finish with between 1 and it seems up to 8 finales groups within my very large sampling. The average is just under 3.


Thus I give every game a number, I call this the MFB number which is multiple finales bet number.


This number can be recorded in a vertical result list and from this, moving averages can be calculated. This is an example of a transformation, a parallel set of data, and still easy to monitor live at the tables. But it requires patience.


The m/a variables I use are three games at a time or better, ten games at a time. This latter device seems to eliminate 55% or so of games when a sensible benchmark threshold for play is set. This is discovered by means of extensive testing.


Likewise game spin duration using same scales as above is a useful guide.


This is not complex but in testing is time consuming. You will find the application of this knowledge very effective.


I am sharing this much in order to encourage you. This discipline and its professional application live will eliminate more than 99.9% of all interested roulette players. Of this I am confident.


What has been very interesting (and rewarding) has been the way that Ecart ( Deviation) runs frequently in short-shortish cycles but usually not choppy. The scales of Deviation and Balance are formidable.


Thus, given patience and overview understanding, the timing to join a game and quit a game can be made that much more efficient.


This is so important.


Hence to summarise 12 months research and development work I respectfully suggest the following :


#1  Devote pure study time to this subject and your efforts will be rewarded. This is business, and
       remarkably, is less fraught with random extremes than market business. Not many know this.


#2  Focus on two or three methods, bets, which you must test individually personally at least
      50,000 spins, preferably 100,000 spins for robust samples, in order to understand the bet
      characteristics. Use true live samples only. Avoid RNG. Use only smart* bets. Know your bet.


#3  Know the strengths and weaknesses/ vulnerability of the bets. Flat staking can lead to long
      periods of sideways movement and then retracement unless you take steps to tune the bet
      by means of taking realistic profit and avoiding loss cycles by Overview ( see later).
     
#4  Identify suitable short cycles of play for optimum results and time entry and exit with care.


#5  Apply an Overview to live play by means of a moving average monitor and establish a suitable
      trigger for play. This will eliminate more than half of the spins viewed and improve your bet
      efficiencies. The Overview will also indicate when to quit. You may attend a session and have
      no qualifying live action. Smile at this and reward yourself!


#6  Flat stake where possible or short stop progression always with a backstop stop-loss point.


#7  Apply stern money management.  Compound your returns and take out profit  from time to
      time, banking that profit independently so it can never be lost.


#8  Accentuate the positive sessions by letting profit run, and mitigate the negatives by stop loss.


#9  Know yourself.


#10 Keep sessions as short as possible for best results.


#11 Always take profit within 10-20% off peak.


#12 But even better, where possible finish a session on two consecutive wins thus finishing on an
        all time session high. This makes a massive improvement in your net efficiency.


#13 Respect Madame Roulette and never become complacent or over-confident. She can be a
       jealous mistress.


#14 Donate at least 10%, preferably 33% of net winnings to worthy causes about which you can
        really become passionate and care. This will fire your motivation professionally and will provide
        powerful positive suggestions for your professional play and will attract good fortune.


#15 Control your emotions at the tables.


#16 Train to remain in peak condition on all levels as any successful professional athlete.


#17 Maintain balance in all you do and enhance your sense of humour.  Dont be too hard on
       yourself when things go wrong ( as they will sometimes). Use the PGA  Pro Golfers as role
       models.


#18 Maintain the understanding that 'the true nature of Roulette' enables short cycles of small
        profit.  Adjust unit values and money management accordingly.


* a smart bet is a bet that is simple, forgiving and shows a regular high return: expenditure ratio.




O Fortuna!
XXVV

[XXVV]

While on the road a short series of updates on my laptop, so please excuse any typos.
The above series of principles is a great checklist and through live experience I can add afew more :
1. Patience. Patience. Patience.
2. When arriving at the casino I now spend about 20-30 mins sitting near the live wheel and record genuine early data and ongoing spins. I then measure the context  and fluency of my key bets by testing their performance, ie measuring the Ecart status.
3.This will usually show what method is currently preferred. If none, move to another table.
4.The casino does not object to any of this and you may even be offered free coffee while you study the data.
5. Then on the basis of a pre set target you go for a 3-4% postive return on your Risk Bank.
6. Three sessions of about an hour every day should enable a 10% return but there will be occasional setbacks, ie stop loss sessions. The context overview is designed to mitigate this risk.

Good Fortune.
XXVV
Experimental Verification

[XXVV]

Context Overview is of course another way of saying 'reading the trends', or 'state of the Ecart'.
By measuring say 20-30 spins you can do this by applying 'smart bets' and given a green signal, proceed and attack for say 2-3 consecutive wins, then pause and take your profit.
XXVV

[Maan]

A VERY Impressive Topic this is! Clear, Interesting Informative reflections and theorys. All free from unnecessary rambling.

Very Good! Thank You

/M

[XXVV]

Thank you for your comment.

As I am on an extensive live play campaign access to longer term keyboard facilities can be limited, and my laptop is sometimes too restrictive for lengthier communication.

However today I am catching up with some written work so just wanted to add a couple of live play observations.

Always aim to end your working day at the casino ( whatever hour of the day or night) with a win, and prefereably the entire day to be a net postive result. Sounds simple but it is very important after all the bio chemistry and energy of the day to feel good and dream/ sleep well after the action.

Always it is your choice to stay or leave.

Thus select a departure time just after a suitable win.

This makes a huge difference to your confidence and game plan.

Professional play is defintely patience to the n'th degree as timing is so important.

On several occasions on a losing sequence I have stayed too long and thus necessitated a table change and some hard work to correct the damage.

Try to avoid too much volatility.

It is easier to have say 5 short mini sessions in a day at +100 units each than have one session achieving +500, especually if your RB is say (only) 300 units.

Or ten mini sessions at +50 is much more achievable.

Key is avoid the mesmerising focus of a slow decline. Better to cut and run and re-start.

The methods I am using are as detailed in various threads here such as MFB or D+C ( reverse bet). I use also some methods based on warming numbers and re-awakened sleepers, and also 'hunting zero' ( or zero section.

On all these methods I try to use where possible an overview which measures the Ecart status, so as to choose to join or not the game being observed. In a small boutique casino tehre are not always multiple tables to select from so you need to make sensible compromises sometimes.

Best advice though is to always finish the session on a win. And most of all end the day on a winning session.

Best

XXVV

[Wally Gator]

to choose to join or not

Einstein couldn't have said it better .....


Thanks for all your hard work.

[XXVV]

Through recent play experiences I have made some additional notes.
These are designed to re-programme my own behaviour and to improve performance. It is not easy in truth but by repetition and positive efforts on all levels we can improve and change.
These notes will be added soon and I think we will all find them useful.
Best
XXVV

[XXVV]

Greetings
Daily live play has been both a delight and a test. Have been seeking application of the most efficient 'commercial bets'. There have been good results and also some poorer than expected results which I put down to procedural and management failure on my part. There has been perceived need for significant improvement.
Inspirational has been patient reading and application of John Patrick's ideas as expressed in 'Advanced Roulette'.
Setting aside his writing style, and looking beyond that, there are massive professional guides and inspirational passages.
There are smarter bets we can select but the management aspect of it all is critical, and it is telling to hear of his Vegas professional colleagues who themselves had to curb their enthusiasm and energies to focus on one game at a time and one application at a time, always starting conservatively.
What I now do is always apply the following principles and I acknowledge JP for some of this important advice.
1. Consider the available Risk Bank and divide it into at least three session banks.
2. If you have less than 300 units dont even bother starting.
3. Never use resources that are needed elsewhere where your emotional energies might be diverted and almost certain loss will follow.
4. Calculate a sensible percentage win goal on your session bank. 10-20% gain per session is fine.
5. Not all sessions will win, so start slowly when the trend you are following is targetted.
6. Should the session start failing quit at the loss of no more than 50% of the session bank.
7. If you make an early gain, however modest, consolidate that gain and dont leave a loser.
8. JP has his up and pull money management method which is smart.
9. By running say 3 sessions per day you may be able to gain a net +5% on your RB daily.
10. Such returns compound into awesome power and after 7 winning sessions I always disburse the proceeds into thirds. One for debt, one for RB growth, and one as gifts.
11. Before sitting at the table first measure the game at a distance with recording of data. The Casino encourages this and supplies card and pens. When you find trends, attack them.
12. Should there be no perceived trend you see, then wait or move on. Never sit at a table and commence betting without due care. If you do you will be down 100 units before you know what hit you.
You may well have read all these principles before, in various styles and by various authors. Believe me, once you really care, and you apply yourself using such principles, you will be astonished at the difference in your net results and improved efficiencies.
Necessity they say is indeed the mother of invention, and when it comes to professional play, your very well -being and survival depends on such care and professional exactness.
You will still encounter tough passages and runs of losses, but the trick is to keep the losses small.
Expand and grow your stakes only on previous gains, and build on your own inevitable winning streaks. They will come and in due course your new confidence will attract them as a magnetic force.
But never become complacent, or greedy.
Work the percentages.
A 20% gain may give you a +10 unit gain. But you can feel grand on this result, or even a nil return, which I still count as a win, as you have avoided loss.
I stop at three sessions usually now, because it may have been hard work and tiredness may not register but your mental efficiency may be down. How many professional athletes race more than three sessions, even the decathletes pace themselves over several days. They are the world's best.
The pro golfers do just one round per day.
View yourself on so many levels and from so many viewpoints. Be kind to yourself. If you slip dont beat yourself up, but just pick yourself up and start again. Remember the advice given to and from the world's best entrepreneurs.
Remember also, the Casino is a 'fixed market' in that the variables are known and defined, although random. This is a safer market than the financial markets which are also random but which may face the unexpected - daily, and where there may be no limits to loss. Observe the financial markets in coming months. There will be examples that illustrate this point.
Refer to Nassim Taleb's magnificent book. Dont you be fooled by randomness. This is a subject full of smoke, mirrors, and empty rhetoric. By comparison your Casino may be viewed as a relatively safer haven. Just dont get sucked in. Develop and maintain your skills.
Best
XXVV

[XXVV]

There are further notes to add, and I certainly want to emphasise that just because I write with specific ideals and suggested behaviour, that I still make mistakes, and sometimes quite silly errors.
We can so easily be caught off guard or the old enemy complacency and over confidence will trap us.
In recent days I have been testing various methods and this can lead to error. In several sessions I have denied the opportunity to take an early and easy profit and in so doing have signalled to my sub consciousness that I want to push the limits, and risk loss, or worse actually want loss!
Time and time again refer to JP advice and take sensible profit when offered. That may be 10-20% of your session RB. If you fail to do this you may well lose. I believe this to be the most important principle of self management.
I do limit what I carry in cash, but seriously do suggest you transfer profits from your pocket to a third party or have the casino issue a CPV ( chip purchase voucher) as a receipt of cash they will hold for you sometimes for days or weeks. I now limit my carrying wallet to 600 units.
I suggest bringing no more than 10% of your total RB resources to the casino, and that itself can be divided into say three session banks.
Here also are some encouraging results from 7000 live spins I have played or witnessed while on this live play tour, nearly 3 months.
Flat staking the reverse ( loss bet) version of the D+C bet and with cover for zero...
+268 units
Playing a 7 step short progression with a 21 unit RB....
+384 units
This is without an overview, or selective choice of session, just straight in. results would be improved by selection.
This is a big picture approach and over the past 2000 spins there was a correction and then re-growth. It is not a steady climb but overall is encouraging.
I am searching for the best commercial bets.
Sometimes the above approach will work better than others. as always try to shut down the losing streaks and play at minimum stake until a winning streak where you can raise unit value.
The above results do not incorporate such discretion and that is why there was a long 1500 spin correction between 5000 and 6500 spins. Re-tracement was about 30%.
Hope this helps. More soon.
XXVV