What's A Good Betting Strategy For Following STREAKS / TRENDS?

[esoito]

Flat?

Progression?

All ideas and details gratefully received.  

It will constitute a useful thread for everyone.

[Gizmotron]

I like focusing on singles and dominations. I there are far more reds than blacks then that is a domination of reds. Some times when things happen you only see one side of an even chance bet hitting as a single time. Example: BBrBrBBBrBBrBr

[esoito]

I like focusing on singles and dominations. I there are far more reds than blacks then that is a domination of reds. Some times when things happen you only see one side of an even chance bet hitting as a single time. Example: BBrBrBBBrBBrBr

And a betting strategy for this is...?  (We need to keep to the thread's topic  )

[Calypso]

Hi Nice thread esoito




well for me its no mather waht method or strategy i follow .. i like it Flat...

but this can be sometimes a serious grind  and i hate that ..

so i looked into the garcia progression .. wich is kinda nice .. but the session can end faster then u know..

i like the fact that with the garcia progression .. u  start a session with 8 units ...

your first bet is 2 units when u lose u bet another 2 units .. when u lose again u bet 4 units..
if all 8 units are lost .. thats it for the day

whats cool on that progression .. u dont have to be afriad of the terrible twos ie RRBBRRBB
when u play the opposite of the last outcome for example... thats how gracia played it..

i alwas played the opposite chance... and made a fortune and lost a fortune

i will look into that progression more deeply now .. and see how it plays out with the way how i track .. trends..

attached is a progression template from the garcia progression.

[Gizmotron]

And a betting strategy for this is...?  (We need to keep to the thread's topic  )

With the example: BBrBrBBBrBBrBr

You notice the single red by the third time that it happens. You bet on it two more times. You bet big on Black right after each red. The problem with rules is that they produce three kinds of results. They work very good, very bad, or chaotic. You notice also that your guesses are working in these same three ways. So you have three degrees of difficulty. If your session is working great then your guesses are working great and your rules are working great. You must notice all this at the same time as your bet selections. You learn to do this by practicing doing it. You might or might not notice this but I really did keep it on topic this time.

[esoito]

STEP1

Start by defining your
PROFIT TARGET
and
STOP-LOSS (as a percentage of your betting capital)

STEP 2
Decide on your betting triggers.


STEP 3
Now consider betting in Cycles:

Cycle 1: Bets = 1-2-3

Cycle 2: Bets = 4-5-6

Cycle 3: Bets = 7-8-9

...and so on

ââ,¬Â¢   If the first bet in FIRST cycle wins then a 2-unit bet is made.

ââ,¬Â¢   If the 2-unit bet loses you go back to a 1 unit bet.

ââ,¬Â¢   If the 1 and 2 unit bets win you go to a 3-unit bet.

ââ,¬Â¢   If that bet loses you go back to the beginning of same cycle and make a 1 unit bet.

ââ,¬Â¢   If 3 bets in a row win you are now into the SECOND cycle

Then a 4-unit bet is made and from this point on, until 3 bets are won in a row (the 4, 5, and 6 unit bets) every loss will send you back to the 4 unit bet.

And 2 consecutive losses will send you back to the first bet in the first cycle, which is 1 unit, and the whole FIRST cycle begins again. (Yes. The FIRST. We're capping losses.)

So, if you win the 4 and 5 unit bet and lose the 6 unit bet, you go back to a bet of 4 units which is the first bet in that SECOND cycle of 4-5-6.

Once you win 3 bets in a row and clear the 2nd cycle, you then progress to the THIRD cycle of 7-8-9 and follow the same pattern.

If you win the 7-unit bet but lose the ensuing 8-unit bet, you go back and bet 7 units once again.

Should you lose that second 7 unit bet also, you go back to the FIRST cycle and make a 1 unit bet.

Rinse and repeat ad nauseum.

But you've got to know when to stop!!  Hence the importance of defining your STOP-LOSS beforehand -- and sticking to it.  

[XXVV]

Thank you Esoito this is most helpful and I like the logic.

We know that streaks ( three or more in sequence) may occupy some 20% of outcomes. Check this with your data.

Get the feel of the current mode of play. I used to term it 'friendly, neutral or hostile' and found the friendly phase ( ie your technique/ mental + emotional state are in resonance with the current cycle of outcomes) would be also about 20% of the time. ( Hostile was 10% and Golden was  5%!!).

Another way to look at it is to review recent 3, 5, 6, 7 outcomes - but maybe 5 is a good balance. Determine chop or streak behaviour. Streaks often accompany streaks.

Without risking progression failure, I am interested in harnessing the kinetic energy in a short parlay, ie three hits in a row. These are quite common especially if you can contrive to be there from the outset. This means counter-intuitive behaviour sometimes like betting both outcomes (if a duality) and going with the flow. Any watcher may think you are mad (including casino staff) but it can be disguised, or you can play on a private screen, or on a quiet table with a smarter friendly dealer.

In and out short hits, but could be high unit value.

Testing outcomes, duration and frequency at this time, especially amongst challenging past results. Will advise outcomes.

This is all easy to say; much much harder to do.

[esoito]

Looks like I'm to be the main contributor to the thread.  

Come on, people. Streaks and chops are the meat and drink of roulette ECs. Some of you must have suitable betting strategies you can share!

Here's one that works OK for baccarat.

Modify it for roulette.



STEP 1
Waiting for a repeat of either P or B, otherwise known as "2 in a row".

Bet 1 unit on the opposite
So if 2 Ps show:   bet 1 unit on B. Win= +1 loss = -1

STEP 2
If a repeat goes to 3 in a row: Bet 2 units on the opposite Win = +1 loss = -3

STEP 3
If a repeat goes to 4 in a row: Bet 1 unit that it would repeat to 5. Win = -2 loss = -4

STEP 4
If it repeats to 5:  Leave 1 unit on the repeating side that it would go 6
Continue to let that 1 unit ride until the end of the repeat streak (5,6,7,8,9,10....)

STEP 5
If the repeat does not go to 5, and jumps after 4, that repeat streak  results in a loss of 4 units. (That's the most you will ever lose in one repeat streak).

So then start from the beginning: Wait for the "2 in a row" and begin with Step 1.


RISK ASSESSMENT
The most you risk is 2 units. (Step 2)

About 1 out of 10 shoes result in a loss.

TARGET
Leave on +4 to +8 units per shoe.

This can happen immediately or you may have to grind it out.

[albalaha]

See this:
link:://rouletteforum.cc/money-management/paroli-a-progression-which-takes-maximum-benefit-of-streaks-with-least-risk/msg39848/#msg39848

[esoito]

See this:
link:://rouletteforum.cc/money-management/paroli-a-progression-which-takes-maximum-benefit-of-streaks-with-least-risk/msg39848/#msg39848

And we can also draw from this one:
link:://rouletteforum.cc/money-management/ratio-betting/msg39853/?topicseen#msg39853

[GLC]

Esoito,

Why don't you copy some of the posts from the "Bet Selection" and "Money Management" topics to this thread?

Here's one that's called the Lucky 7 Even Chance Bet.

You bet on any E.C.  If you win, your next bet is a close to 1.5 times the last won bet.

If you lose at any point, you must return to the 1st bet.

Here's an example starting with $5 bet.

Bet amount            If lose                If win
      5                         -5                      +5
      8                         -3                      +13
      12                       +1                     +25
      18                       +7                     +32
      27                       +16                   +70
      38                       +32                   +108
      57                       +51                   +165

As you can see, once you have won the 3rd time, you can't lose.
You don't have to push it all the way to 7 steps.  A nice profit is made at 4 or 5 steps.

The bet amounts starting with 1 are 1-2-3-5-8-12-18.  When starting with 1 unit, you only break even on the 3rd win.  If you win all seven you win 49 units.

The bet amounts starting with 2 are 2-3-5-8-12-18-27.  Same as with 1 unit, you only break even on the 3rd win here also.  If you win all 7 you win 75 units.

The bet amounts starting with 3 units are 3-5-8-12-18-27-38.  A 7 step win = +111.

An option is if you win 4 in a row and then lose on the 5th bet, just drop back 2 steps and continue from  there instead of going all the way back to the 1st bet.

LOL,

George

[XXVV]

This is such a good idea having a title that can help us harness the best results from the best opportunities available in Roulette.

Despite all the IA and EA theory ( see Workshop thread) and guess work, discretion, choosabilty, speculation or intuition, you may never really know when a streak will certainly appear and I think a good approach when testing is to randomly roll the results and stop and play spin by spin until an outcome is established. Then randomly roll the data again and so on, but be assured to regularly switch number groups as all have their massive cycle characteristics also. Be prepared for a streak to happen at any time.

So, no matter what the start, you play with a set of rules which I am currently shaping. I will file these in a day or to all going well. However in the interim can I suggest you play flat staking to reduce risk exposure, but you start with a trigger and yes that can be your target say, Red or RO/BE, and you then play one by one to follow and hunt the streak.

Depending on your starting outcome there will be several consequences. You may start well (one, two, three wins) or badly (one loss).

What I do is transcribe to W and L mode.

After a L, loss,  I stop and await a W, win, to re-commence.

After a short to medium sequence I finish preferably on WW. This is so important.

If an adverse situation finish at least on a W.

The difference between finishing on a LL and a WW in ROBE/BORE play is +74 units. Thats a lot of money by just a change in perception of the correct exit strategy.

After some more testing of some various ideas I will post those 7 Rules for Staking.

[XXVV]

PS
It is +74 units because I always play and target zero in my group of numbers being targetted - inside table betting.

[XXVV]

Please note. It is possible to make substantial consistent returns without going to progressions which I can assure you, having seen the damage it has done to some I know,  some I have heard about, will result only in ruin and tears.

When selecting a method of play to target your chosen daily goal, and the level of risk to which you wish to expose yourself, and the hard earned capitol, oops sorry, capital, you are prepared to stake as your risk bank, think very carefully, and do your homework..

Some approaches are much more slippery than others. Select wisely.

Some say roulette is streaky by nature. No, it is sometimes streaky. 20% so to be precise. My current goal is hunting and trapping the streaks.

I will post a suggested set of rules for streak betting, and a response to a range of outcomes tomorrow. Please feel free to improve upon my suggestions with your logic. To be sure there will be opportunities.

[XXVV]

In these times it seems 'tomorrow' can be a long time. Sorry for delay.

Some criteria for Optimum Bet Matrix Selection ( OBMS - yet another acronym).

1. Goal A B C
2. stop-loss
3. Mini Bank
4. Total Bank
5. Trigger + Exit Strategy
6. Fast Cycle
7. Definition of a Streak
8. Hunt the Streak
9. Test Coded Samples

Quick summary of current thinking based on inside table betting of a pattern which may repeat consistently enough to enable targetting of streaks.

The true nature of roulette suggests that there are many such betting opportunities but that they may only occur in short bursts of streak/ trend.
Elsewhere I have listed some examples but the list can easily be extended with lateral thinking.

By coding outcomes as W or L, we find that 20% of outcomes are available at both polarities - you just have to switch bets at pre-determined times ( ie by prior testing of samples that can give you signals and triggers for repeating pattern behaviour).



1. Goal A   minimum W say        +15 units
   Goal B   preferred WW say     + 30 units
   Goal C   brilliant WWW say      +45 units

2. stop-loss - in this context       50 units

3. Mini Bank                                150 units

4. Total Bank                               500 units

   Reserve Bank                           500 units     ie 1000 unit TOTAL

   Daily Sessions : 3 max

   Daily Goal       :  + 100 units

   Weekly Goal   :  + 500 units

5.  Trigger is W
    Stop is L
    Retrigger is W
    Exit is WW        
                                                                                                    Elsewhere the variables within this matrix are considered

6.  Fast Cycle is get in and get out asap. Take profit when offered.

7.  Streak is defined as 3 or more in a sequence WWW or LLL

8.  These may make up some 40% of outcomes ( 20+20)
    Bet to set a trap to catch the streak
    Observe EA ( 20 + spins - refer workshop thread)
    Observe IA  ( 5 spins - test volatility)
    Observe pattern sequences and predictable repeats

9.  OBMS provides a coded distribution and frequency chart of outcomes
    within cycles of 111 spins ( 3x 37). From this an optimum betting
    strategy (to be tested and proven) tells us the best bet to place at any
    time for any prior outcome sequence, in order to achieve where possible
    a positive net result as W, WW, WWW or better.

This is where theory pushes a frontier, and experimental work is underway to establish this theory or contribute to a re formulation of our goal.

For example a sequence will unfold as follows ( W is a trigger)
WW       code1A
WL        code 1B
WWW    code 2A
WWL      code 2B   and so on

In 111 spins we want to use GAP theory ( see L. Holloway book - Full Time Gambler) to determine the frequency and distribution of these coded sequence outcomes.

Live Casino play follows on Friday for three days and nights, and after that data will be collated.

Hope to publish some interim results early next week.

Good Hunting XXVV