The Need for Experience

[GLC]

It seems to me that the way to win at roulette in the long run is not by playing a mechanical bet method.

Based on the books I have read about winning at roulette and the people who profess to win long term, the way they win is to be armed with an arsenal of methods and knowledge and experience and to attack the wheel based on what it's doing at the time.

I have an acquaintance (I could say friend, but we barely know each other) that I meet at the roulette machine and have for a couple of years now.  We play on the airball machines and sometimes I go out before work in the morning and he'll be there playing 3 or 4 of the stations.

Whenever he wins, which is almost every time I see him, he always drops the coupons showing his winnings down beside my screen so I can congratulate him.

He has been reluctant to talk much about his method of play, but the other day the machines malfunctioned and we couldn't get our money out until management came over.  While we were waiting, I pressured him to tell me how he plays.

He said that he has about 6 different events he watches for.  Most involve betting against the wheel.  Looking for things like 8 Even Chances in a row and then he bets a 3 step martingale for a change.  6 dozens in a row and another martingale, 6-steps, etc...

As Flatino knows these airball machines tend to repeat recent spins and our machines here in Tucson appear to be no different and so he looks for recurring events.  He was showing me how the 1 & 2 columns were hitting way more than they should be statistically.  So he would wait until the 3 column hit 2 or 3 times close together and then he would bet on the 1 & 2 column.  While we were waiting for someone to come an service the machine it was spinning and the the 1 & 2 column hit 9 times in a row.  Then the 3 column hit 2 times and the 1 & 2 column another 8 times.

Naturally, he was pissed off because he said that cost him about $100 because he couldn't play his system.

These various methods are in addition to playing a system that is very similar to the STAR system.  He uses some triggers, but bets the STAR bet method which is a let-it-ride for the 1st 3 of 4 bets and then bet twice at the same level.  I'm familiar with the Star system which is as good a system as most.

Anyway, he admits that it goes in cycles.  Sometimes he wins almost every time he plays and sometimes he has periods when he stays about even.  He rarely has periods where he loses too much.

He said that once or twice per year he has a bad losing stretch that causes him to back off his bet sizes until the tide turns.

I suppose there's nothing unique with his playing style.  It's based on experience and gambler's fallacy which seems to work at least most of the time.  He swears it works for him.

Of course this is all anecdotal evidence, but it's coming from a lot of different sources, so I'm thinking this type of playing style is what we should be focusing on.

What do you think?  Or is this old news to most of you?

George

[VLS]

What do you think?

Agreed.

Wheel-based or layout-based the viable methodology is just like that.

Use only short-term play. Focus in what is "in front of you".

Have several triggers/ways in your arsenal.

Compound wins inter-session to increase base unit size progressively (win more)

Regress bets on prolonged bad runs. (lose less)

Work with the averages (in the case of your example, a yearly average)



This is a good toopic, worthy of being featured in our forum's news.

Thanks for posting it dear GLC.
Vic

[Gizmotron]

This is basically how I play too. I look for workable conditions to attack the game. And yes, it all comes from experience.

[F_LAT_INO]

George mate,
All you have said here is fact which am aware of
and exactly how I play,follow repeats of many kinds,
wheel and the carpet not forcing any progressive approach
and you can hardly lose.

[Proofreaders2000]

Watch for a shrewd dealer at the live tables, he/she can kill any system.

[seykid31]

I play only AIRBALL,american wheel.With tips i pick up from Flat-Ifo..i now play a flat bet strategy only advance from profit with casino money.I must say airball tend to repeat a lot yes.Like promised winning bet,i play not sector on table but quad,5 quad..yes 20 numbers is a lot,but some play 2 dozens ..but i also incorporate hot numbers in my game.Yesterday with luck i manage to pull out 900 units with 125 units,so 775 units profit..Like i say..maybe luck.But now im starting to see the experience part.
seykid.

[F_LAT_INO]

Really glad to hear you are winning now,
after my advice.Good on ya and good luck.

[GLC]

Heres what I've been working on.  I have 4 systems that I think give me a really good chance to win about 7-8 times I play them.  I have been taking about 120 spins which is about all the time I have for playing at the casino.  That's 2 hours.  My airball machine spins every 60 seconds exactly.

I have been studying by playing all four systems on the same 120 spins, after the fact.  At least 60 to 70% of the time, they all four win.  Every now and then 1 or 2 of them does really bad.  At the same time 1 of the other ones does really good.  My goal is to be able to move from the one that's doing really bad to the one that's doing really good while the irons still hot, so to speak.

At the same time, I am keeping an eye on the Even chances, dozens and lines.  I'm looking for a streak to develop and at a predetermined point, I start betting a predetermined number of bets that the streak will come to an end.  I don't chase these to bankruptcy, just a few tries and then wait for the next opportunity.  Since this is an air-ball machine I am definitely looking for ways to play for repeats of recent dozens, lines, streets etc...

By taking 120 spins and really studying them and playing different ways with them, it is giving me a lot more confidence in getting a feel of how to play or not play each time I go to the casino.

Not all the 120 spins are from my air-ball machine, but I definitely keep track of each 120 spin session from my air-ball machine so I can study those the most.

It's a lot like studying for an exam at school, but one of the things I learned in my invertebrate zoology class was that the more you look at anything, the more you understand it.  You are eventually seeing things you can't believe you couldn't see in the beginning.

I can tell everyone on this forum without a moments hesitation that if you will do what I'm doing, it will pay a lot more dividends than anything else you can do. 

It is fun to get a new idea and start working on it, tweaking it, testing it, etc... and I'm not saying don't do that because you're learning a lot about roulette there also, but that's like high school or Jr.  college.  I feel like I'm in graduate school with my new found method of learning roulette.

I would like to thank a lot of you for your help and encouragement over these many months but I don't want to leave anyone out and hurt their feelings so I'll just say that I have learned something from all of you.  And, I really mean it.

I hope this turns a light bulb on in at least one person's head, and good luck to everyone.

LOL to all,

George (mate, buddy, cobber, pal, friend, ally and companion at large)

[iggiv]

He may not be bluntly lying? I understand betting cold just sometimes, but consistently.It is hard to believe it. Or maybe he is just being lucky. Also possible. Some say luck can be life time event. Anyway it is hard to believe this method may really work consistently.

[GLC]

He may not be bluntly lying? I understand betting cold just sometimes, but consistently.It is hard to believe it. Or maybe he is just being lucky. Also possible. Some say luck can be life time event. Anyway it is hard to believe this method may really work consistently.

Iggiv,

Your post doesn't seem to fit with what has gone on before.  It's almost as if you posted a response to a differnt topic on this topic.

If this isn't a mistake, will you please elaborate more.  We all value your perspective.


Thanks,

Geo

[iggiv]

It seems to me that the way to win at roulette in the long run is not by playing a mechanical bet method.

Based on the books I have read about winning at roulette and the people who profess to win long term, the way they win is to be armed with an arsenal of methods and knowledge and experience and to attack the wheel based on what it's doing at the time.

I have an acquaintance (I could say friend, but we barely know each other) that I meet at the roulette machine and have for a couple of years now.  We play on the airball machines and sometimes I go out before work in the morning and he'll be there playing 3 or 4 of the stations.

Whenever he wins, which is almost every time I see him, he always drops the coupons showing his winnings down beside my screen so I can congratulate him.

He has been reluctant to talk much about his method of play, but the other day the machines malfunctioned and we couldn't get our money out until management came over.  While we were waiting, I pressured him to tell me how he plays.

He said that he has about 6 different events he watches for.  Most involve betting against the wheel.  Looking for things like 8 Even Chances in a row and then he bets a 3 step martingale for a change.  6 dozens in a row and another martingale, 6-steps, etc...

As F_LAT_INO knows these airball machines tend to repeat recent spins and our machines here in Tucson appear to be no different and so he looks for recurring events.  He was showing me how the 1 & 2 columns were hitting way more than they should be statistically.  So he would wait until the 3 column hit 2 or 3 times close together and then he would bet on the 1 & 2 column.  While we were waiting for someone to come an service the machine it was spinning and the the 1 & 2 column hit 9 times in a row.  Then the 3 column hit 2 times and the 1 & 2 column another 8 times.

Naturally, he was pissed off because he said that cost him about $100 because he couldn't play his system.

These various methods are in addition to playing a system that is very similar to the STAR system.  He uses some triggers, but bets the STAR bet method which is a let-it-ride for the 1st 3 of 4 bets and then bet twice at the same level.  I'm familiar with the Star system which is as good a system as most.

Anyway, he admits that it goes in cycles.  Sometimes he wins almost every time he plays and sometimes he has periods when he stays about even.  He rarely has periods where he loses too much.

He said that once or twice per year he has a bad losing stretch that causes him to back off his bet sizes until the tide turns.

I suppose there's nothing unique with his playing style.  It's based on experience and gambler's fallacy which seems to work at least most of the time.  He swears it works for him.

Of course this is all anecdotal evidence, but it's coming from a lot of different sources, so I'm thinking this type of playing style is what we should be focusing on.

What do you think?  Or is this old news to most of you?

George

this was was a response to this posting. what's wrong with my questions? The guy -- he could not lie to you about betting on cold all the time? As i understand he wins consistently and explains this success as betting on cold ONLY. I understand that betting SOMETIMES on cold EC or dozens may work as hit and run, but all the time? maybe it is just a small part of his strategies...or he just tries to mislead u?

You said it yourself that he was not very willing to unveil his strategies, so it is possible that he hasn't after all. What he told u could be just not true, or just a small part of truth.

[albalaha]

There are many ways to earn more and lose less. Some suggest use of progression, some strictly flat betting, guys like me have a term "sensible progression" or "mild progression" when required. Experience teaches us that any method can hit or miss in any session and no bet selection can change the random nature of wheel and ball or RNG. Random means "unpredictible" and whoever authoring or using a system/method should never forget this unpleasant but universal truth.

[carpanta]

Experience teaches us that any method can hit or miss in any session and no bet selection can change the random nature of wheel and ball or RNG. Random means "unpredictible" and whoever authoring or using a system/method should never forget this unpleasant but universal truth.

These should be good news. It means we dont have to gamble at all. No bet selection is better than other because random means "unpredictable" but, and this is the big but, randomness can't evict repetitions of events. So why dont we stick to what is showing? To go with the game flow is a smart decision, while waiting for sleeping events to happen is the wrong one.
When present conditions change then we stop betting on them till happier times arrives.

Once upon a time there was a man whose favourite passtime consisted of shooting birds.
From time to time he used to go to the countryside chasing partdriges. On one of these ocassions there were none to be seen for miles around but he didnt lost his spirits despite hundred of ducks were shitting all over him.

Cheers,
Carlos.

[albalaha]

Dear carpanta, it is easier to be said than done. In case of absolute unpredictibility, nothing is there which you can follow. I remember another incident of my last casino trip where I thought if I everytime bet on 11 numbers(consecutive on the wheel), keeping the last winner in the middle and 5 numbers from both right and left to it in the wheel, I will surely win. I tried it once for 20 times and the ball kept moving to other places every time. Another incident was taking 9 consecutive numbers on a wheel, which did not turn up even after 55 attempts. What else do u suggest? Randomness ensures that every method will fail sooner or later. If u create any betting method which has an edge and earns more and losses less, it is more than sufficient.

[carpanta]

I remember another incident of my last casino trip where I thought if I everytime bet on 11 numbers(consecutive on the wheel), keeping the last winner in the middle and 5 numbers from both right and left to it in the wheel, I will surely win. I tried it once for 20 times and the ball kept moving to other places every time. Another incident was taking 9 consecutive numbers on a wheel, which did not turn up even after 55 attempts.

That was your problem: "you thought". No thinking is required. After your initial bet selection chasing a repeat of that event went wrong, fine what's the problem? it dint continue. At the least another strike to see what happens. If no hit in this second bet what is the purpose to lose 18 more times in a row? Didn't you see the chop of that event? During 18 times 26 numbers were "shitting" over you so no argument.
If you detect 9 numbers not hitting during 55 spins that's a gold mine mate. See the positive side LoL. That's an edge or am I mistaken?

Cheers,
Carlos.