Streaks

[GLC]

Why won't the following system work on the Even Chance bets of Roulette?

Also, some good points about probabilities.

STREAKS - SYSTEM
Streaks of P and DP happening in a row, odds for each streak to continue are 50%
less than the last streak.

EXAMPLE :
[ all examples will only go to a level of ten - P or DP occurring in a row - the
math is the same no matter how far or near I take it - IT can not change ]

10 in a row - will occur __1 time
09 in a row - will occur __2 times
08 in a row - will occur __4 times
07 in a row - will occur __8 times
06 in a row - will occur _16 times
05 in a row - will occur _32 times
04 in a row - will occur _64 times
03 in a row - will occur 128 times
02 in a row - will occur 256 times
01 in a row - will occur 512 times
Streaks of P and DP - 2036 total decisions
50% will be P and 50% will be DP.
Doubling your bet after a loss.
No matter where you end your doubling a bet after a loss you will lose.

EXAMPLE :
[ ending the doubling and taking a loss at 5 losing wagers in a row ]
Wagers

01 unit__ win = plus 1 unit_ lose = -1 unit then wager
02 unit__ win = plus 1 unit_ lose = -3 units then wager
04 unit__ win = plus 1 unit_ lose = -7 units then wager
08 unit__ win = plus 1 unit_ lose = -15 units then wager
16 unit__ win = plus 1 unit_ lose = -31 units
END

So playing the OPPOSITE of the prior decision, this is what will happen:
All streaks of

01 in a row-plus 1 unit
02 in a row-plus 1 unit
03 in a row-plus 1 unit
04 in a row-plus 1 unit
05 in a row minus 31 units
06 in a row minus 31 units
07 in a row minus 31 units
08 in a row minus 31 units
09 in a row minus 31 units
10 in a row minus 31 units

What happens when we look at the amount of streaks we will get when we play.
__1 streak of 10 in a row = minus _31 units 1x-31
__2 streaks of 9 in a row = minus _62 units 2x-31
__4 streaks of 8 in a row = minus 124 units 4x-
__8 streaks of 7 in a row = minus 248 units 8x-31
_16 streaks of 6 in a row = minus 496 units 16x-31
_32 streaks of 5 in a row = minus 992 units 32x-31
_64 streaks of 4 in a row = plus ___64 units 64x 1
128 streaks of 3 in a row = plus __128 units 128x 1
256 streaks of 2 in a row = plus __256 units 256x 1
512 streaks of 1 in a row = plus __512 units 512x 1
for a total of plus 960 units minus - 1953 units = minus - 993 units
As you can see betting on the opposite decision [ P / DP ] and doubling each
losing wager until you win WILL lose you money.
Playing BOTH sides P and DP at the same time.

Play both sides at the same time increasing the wager on the side of P / DP that
you have just lost a wager on and using the side that you won a wager on as a
BACK UP BET.

HOW:
Start by placing 1 unit on P AND DP [at the same time] then which ever side
WINS place a wager of one unit and on the side that LOST place a wager of 2
units.
If the side with 2 units wins your ahead 1 unit then place 1 unit on the
winning side and go up to 2 units on the side that lost, the one that only had 1
unit on it.
If the side that had 2 units on it lost keep only 1 unit on the winning side
but increase your wager on the losing side up to 3 units.
If the side that has the 3 units on it wins and the side with 1 unit loses
you are ahead 1 unit, so place 1 unit on the side that won and 2 units on the
side that lost.
If the side with 3 units on it loses and the side with 1 unit wins keep one
unit on the side that won and increase your wager on the losing side up to 5
units.
If the side with 5 units on it wins you are up 1 unit . Place 1 unit on the
winning side and increase the losing side up to 2 units.
If the side with 5 units on it loses keep 1 unit on the side that won and
increase your wager up to 9 units on the losing side.
If the side with 9 units on it wins you are up 1 unit . Place 1 unit on that
winning side and increase the unit on the losing side up to 2 units.
If the side with 9 units loses we STOP HERE AND TAKE OUR LOSS! We are only
down 15 units NOT 31 units like we would be after 5 losses in a row if we were
only playing ONE SIDE [ P or DP ] and doubling our wager after each loss.
WE ARE DOWN LESS THAN 50% of what we could be, talk about minimizing losses.

EXAMPLE: P wins then DP wins
__P____DP__
__1____1___ wager/ P wins DP loss= even
__1____2___ wager/ P lost DP wins= plus 1 unit

EXAMPLE: P wins P wins DP wins
__P____DP__
__1____1___ wager/ P wins DP lost= even
__1____2___ wager/ P wind DP lost= minus 1 unit
__1____3___wager/ P lost DP wins= plus 1 unit

EXAMPLE: P wins P wins P wins DP wins
__P____DP__
__1____1___ wager/ P wins DP lost= even
__1____2___ wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 1 unit
__1____3___ wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 3 units
__1____5___wager/ P lost DP wins = plus 1 unit

EXAMPLE: P wins P wins P wins P wins DP wins
__P____DP___
__1____1____wager/ P wins DP lost= even
__1____2____wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 1 unit
__1____3____wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 3 units
__1____5____wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 7 units
__1____9____wager/ P lost DP wins= plus 1 unit

EXAMPLE: P wins P wins P wins P wins P wins [ followed by a P or DP it will not
make a difference -this is where we end our losing streak]
__P____DP___
__1____1____wager/ P wins DP lost= even
__1____2____wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 1 unit
__1____3____wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 3 units
__1____5____wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 7 units

__1____9____wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 15 units
END

EXAMPLE: P wins DP wins DP wins P wins P wins P wins DP wins P wins P wins DP
wins.
P-DP-DP-P-P-P-DP-P-P-DP
********************************
__P____DP___
__1____1____wager/ P wins DP lost= even
__1____2____wager/ P lost DP wins= plus 1 unit
__2____1____wager/ P lost DP wins= even
__3____1____wager/ P wins DP lost= plus 2 units
__1____2____wager/ P wins DP lost= plus 1 unit
__1____3____wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 1 unit
__1____5____wager/ P lost DP wins= plus 3 units
__2____1____wager/ P wins DP lost= plus 4 units
__1____2____wager/ P wins DP lost= plus 3 units
__1____3____wager/ P lost DP wins= plus 5 units

Playing this way seems to work for every streak of P or DP 1-2-3 or 4 in a row
your ahead 1 unit and for every streak of 5 or more you are down 15 units.
Let us look at what will happen in the long term [run] . When we look at the
amount of streaks we will get.

Streaks of P and DP :
01 in a row = plus 1 unit
02 in a row = plus 1 unit
03 in a row = plus 1 unit
04 in a row = plus 1 unit
05 in a row = minus 15 units
06 in a row = minus 15 units
07 in a row = minus 15 units
08 in a row = minus 15 units
09 in a row = minus 15 units
10 in a row = minus 15 units
amount of streaks 50% P and 50% DP
Streaks of - in a row
01__512 ----- plus 512
02__256 ----- plus 256
03__128 ----- plus 128
04___64 ----- plus 64
total for streaks 1-4 = plus 960 units
******************************************
05__32 ----- 32 x minus 15 units = minus 480
06__16 ----- 16 x minus 15 units = minus 240
07___8 ----- 8 x minus 15 units = minus 120
08___4 ----- 4 x minus 15 units = minus 60
09___2 ----- 2 x minus 15 units = minus 30
10___1 ----- 1 x minus 15 units = minus 15
total for streaks 5-10 = minus 945 units
*************************************************
Grand total plus 960 units - minus 945 units = plus 15 units

That seems like a lot of work just for 15 units not to talk about the time that
would take, but think about this will you really bust at 15 units every time?
Will the method of play really go like this win 15 units then lose 15 units lose
15 units win 15 units and break even. NO. When you bust 15 units you have to ADD
the amount of units you won to get the TRUE amount of the bust. Say you won 12
units and then bust 15 units your TRUE bust is only 3 units or say you won 22
units and then bust 15 units your TRUE bust is really a win of 7 units.

So in a 50/50 game you have to look at what the average is in the
long run and that is your average bust WILL only be 7 1/2 [ 8 ] units playing
this way and your average win will be 7 1/2 [ 8 ] units. Now the great part.
Play what is called a 2-1-2-1 bankroll money management strategy along with what
I have just shown you and you can not lose

A 2-1-2-1 strategy is easy what you do is break ALL your play into segments and
win or lose you leave after a segment and take a break and return later to start
another segment.
But here is how you play each segment.

Bankroll required

You need 30 units- each unit MUST be at least the table minimum bet [ example;
at a $ 1.00 table you need $ 30.00 at a $ 5.00 table you need $150.00 ] per
segment to be played also you NEED to be able to play AT LEAST 3 segments
Start segment one by playing the 1-2-3-5-9-unit progression with DOUBLE the
wager progression. Play 2-4-6-10-18 with 2 units on the other side as your backup
wager. Play this way until you win 30 units or bust [ your average bust will
be 50 % of segment money- 15 units ] .IF YOU WIN 30 UNITS: walk away and take a
break or find another table to play at.

When you return to play this time [ your 2nd segment ] Play 1-2-3-5-9 unit
progression with 1 unit as your back-up wager. IF YOU BUST : start over playing
2-4-6- 10-18 unit progression with a 2 unit back-up wager again.

EVERY TIME YOU BUST START OVER WITH THE 2-4-6-10-18 PROGRESSION WITH THE 2 UNIT
BACK-UP WAGER.

EVERY TIME YOU WIN 15 UNITS ON YOUR 2ND SEGMENT START OVER PLAYING THE 2-4-6-10-
18 PROGRESSION WITH A 2 UNIT BACK-UP WAGER.

So when you are playing the 2-4-6-10-18 progression your average bust will be 15
units and when you play the 1-2-3-5-9 progression your average bust will be 8
units.

LETS SEE WHAT WILL HAPPEN PLAYING THIS WAY
Over ANY two segments you can either,

win and win
win and lose
lose and win
lose and lose

win and win = plus 45 units [ 30 and 15 ]
win and lose = plus 22 units [ 30 and -8 avg. ]
lose and lose = minus 30 units [ -15 avg. and -15 avg. ]
lose and win = plus 15 units [ -15 avg. and 30 ]

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE LONG TERM [ RUN]

Wins AND losses in a row :
[ a 50/50 game ]

EXPECTED WINS IN A ROW [ sample only to 5 ]
1. 16 W-L [ 30 - 8 avg. = 22 ]
2. 8 W-W-L [ 30/15 - 15 avg. = 30 ]
3. 4 W-W W-L [ 30/15/30 - 8 avg. = 67 ]
4. 2 W-W-W-W-L [ 30/15/30/15 - 15 avg. = 75 ]
5. 1 W-W-W-W-W-L [ 30/15/30/15/30 - 8 avg. = 112 ]
1. 16 x 22 = 352
2. 8 x 30 = 240
3. 4 x 67 = 268
4. 2 x 75 = 150
5. 1 x 112 = 112
total = 1122

EXPECTED LOSS IN A ROW [ sample only to 5 ]
1. 16 L-W [ -15 avg. and plus 30 = 15 ]
2. 8 L-L-W [ -15 / -15 avg. and plus 30 = 0 ]
3. 4 L-L-L-W [ -15 / -15 / -15 avg. and plus 30 = - 15 ]
4. 2 L-L-L-L-W [ -15 / -15 / -15 / -15 avg. and plus 30 = - 30 ]
5. 1 L-L-L-L-L-W [ -15 / -15 / -15 / -15 / -15 avg. and plus 30 = - 45

1. 16 x 15 = 240
2. 8 x 0 = 0
3. 4 x -15 = -60
4. 2 x -30 = -60
5. 1 x -45 = -45
total = 75 [ plus 240 - 0 - 60 - 60 - 45 = plus 75

So if what is expected to happen happens and it will [ over the long run with
little variation swings in the short run ] YOU CAN NOT LOSE.

Does anyone have any input on this?

George

[MrJ]

VERY NICE thread, thank you!!


Ken

[Tomla021]

very interesting george, thanks

[GLC]

I have analyzed my initial post which was a system designed for craps and not by me. 

I think the math is flawed in that it only considers 10 in a row.  10 is not the limit.

It suggests that you place opposing bets because it's written for craps players.  In roulette, opposing plays are stupid unless you're playing on a no zero table.

In Roulette we would bet differentially.  That means that when he would bet 1on Red & 1 on Black, we wouldn't bet at all.  When he would bet 1 on Red and 2 on Black, we would bet just 1 on Black.  When he would bet 1 on Red and 3 on Black, we would bet 2 on Black, etc...

Here's the real system for us:

Always bet 0 units on the color that won.
Bet 1 unit on the color that lost.  If it loses again, bet 2 units, then 4 then 8 then 16.
If you lose betting 16, you lose 31 units.
Anytime you win before losing on 31 units, you win 1 unit.

This is nothing more than a standard martingale bet method betting that a color won't hit 5 times in a row.

A definite loser.

The only interesting idea he's presented is the idea of breaking sessions into 2 game series and betting at different levels depending on whether you won or lost last game and whether it's the 1st or 2nd game in a series.

This may be a useful concept to explore.

George