*PATTERN BREAKER*

[Steve]

John, you said:

stay focused stay positive and longterm success is yours.

You say you must "hit and run", AND you say long term success is yours. You don't understand why your statements are contradictory.

Do you really want to know Steve? I thought you already had all the anwsers. The way you dismissed my post last night really suggested that to me.

I want to know. that's why I asked the questions.

And I did not dismiss your post. I responded to it. But it still didn't help you understand why your approach doesn't work.

Again people can find out for themselves, it is just rather frustrating to see people go about it all wrong and not understand why it is wrong, despite me explaining it many times.

Please, answer these questions for me:


can someone please explain to me why you can't be greedy and need to stop after a few wins?

why can't you just go to a different table and start again? or tag-team another player who will come and start fresh?

please someone explain it to me.

ps - again john it is nothing personal. you are just very wrong and are misleading people. fact is not mere opinion, and you interpret my expression of fact as arrogance. I'm just confident that 1 + 1 = 2.

[ugly bob]

why can't you just go to a different table and start again? or tag-team another player who will come and start fresh?

This is the kicker for me.

Just say JL has finished a session of Pattern Breaker and reached his target and gets up and walks away.
Now somebody else who also plays Pattern Breaker just sits down and starts his session for the day. You can not then say that person has less chance of winning.
There is also the possibility that someone was just leaving after playing his session just before JL sat down and started playing. So does that mean JL has less chance of winning.

If you say it would make no difference for all three different players, you then have to ask what difference it would have made if the same player sat there and played all the way through those three HAR sessions.


bob.

[iggiv]

only those who have consistent advantage over casinos can play long sessions without fear.
You can't have consistent advantage without having it. It must be physical advantage. Either bias or
VB skills. Steve is asking his questions as a player who has consistent physical advantage over casino.


No simple mechanical method can give such a consistent physical advantage. That's why even the best mechanical methods are doomed if u keep using them non-stop.

on the other hand famous personalities which i mentioned already (John Patric, Brett Morton, Lee Tutor) have been able to show possibilities to win even though their methods are losers on a long run. That's the fact.

So it is possible after all. If u use smart gamble tactics. And HAR is just a  part of them. Sure if u just come along, bet red or black and run away after a few spins it will not make u a winner. There is more to it. But if u stay and keep betting there are many more chances to lose, each time u keep betting You have more chances to lose and less to win. That's the fact. About those things are written many books. Roulette is a game with negative expectancy. Another fact is that 70% of the players in casino at some moment are winning but then most of them lose all their winnings and more than that.

And casinos are eager to keep players betting over and over again, to keep them as long  as possible in casinos. They are well aware that time is working for them while a player is staying longer.

i am wondering why some  people don't get it. It is so simple, still some people make it complicated.

in my opinion if u wanna win without advantage play first thing u gotta do is recognize that roulette is unbeatable game...

[Still]

can someone please explain to me why you can't be greedy and need to stop after a few wins?

why can't you just go to a different table and start again? or tag-team another player who will come and start fresh?

please someone explain it to me.

It might have something to do with parallel universes.  Leaving the table may be what it takes to get into the next universe over...kind of like walking up to a new table.  But why the next universe would treat a player better i'm not sure.  Might have something to do with tricking the punishment mechanism in the universes.  Like leaving hell before the devil knows you're there. 

[Steve]

ugly bob, well I'm glad you "get it".. however ugly you may be. It is plain logic.

.. or maybe let's be a little less than realistic and assume the method works. Ok so let's do somethihg crazy and test it enough times for it to clearly not be "chance"...

or maybe we can't do that because it only works if you play a few spins then don't come back for a while, then do another few spins.... and in 10 years, you played 500 spins and profited a little. So it must be a winning system?

I mean JL, forgive me for asking these elemental questions, but they must be asked. Put the pride aside and look at it scientifically.

Sure there are things about this universe we don't know, but lets be realistic.

It might have something to do with parallel universes.  Leaving the table may be what it takes to get into the next universe over...kind of like walking up to a new table.  But why the next universe would treat a player better i'm not sure.  Might have something to do with tricking the punishment mechanism in the universes.  Like leaving hell before the devil knows you're there. 

I'm not sure if this was serious or not. Sounds like...



What is more likely:...

1. the system needs to win only in the short term because the universe is built that way. The universe just acts in mysterious ways.

OR

2. any system can win in the short term from random fluctuations in short term results - even just betting red for 100 spins or so. And just like the casino can have a losing day, but in the long term they will slowly drain player bankrolls. But just because a casino may have a losing day doesn't mean their "system" (house edge) doesn't work. With the JL system, there is nothing but short term wins and the gambler's false believe (fallacy) that they are winning for years... by only playing a few spins each day.

[TwoCatSam]

This is the kicker for me.

Just say JL has finished a session of Pattern Breaker and reached his target and gets up and walks away.
Now somebody else who also plays Pattern Breaker just sits down and starts his session for the day. You can not then say that person has less chance of winning.
There is also the possibility that someone was just leaving after playing his session just before JL sat down and started playing. So does that mean JL has less chance of winning.

If you say it would make no difference for all three different players, you then have to ask what difference it would have made if the same player sat there and played all the way through those three HAR sessions.


bob.

bob

I've made that same argument many times.  Once wrote a piece called "New Eyes on the Marquee" about it.

Sam

[rouletteKEY]

I don't think I'm qualified to comment on parallel universes but if I could just get a little wormhole going to take me back about 10 minutes in time with a super high limit table I know I'm making inside bets and not worrying about a 3 step EC progression.

But since the laws of physics are unlikely to shatter at the right time and place for me to own the Bellagio..............

The whole HAR theory makes sense to me in that it really doesn't matter much if you have great progressions and methods coming out your ears...if your bet selection sucks you are going to lose miserably.  Part of bet selection is timing so let's just assume that for this argument that a key factor is absolute perfect timing.  You must attack at the precise golden moment that the trigger presents itself.  Based on some very rudimentary tracking against actual spins on real wheels I got good results 12:1 strike rate just playing it out to a loss and 6-0 with HAR on about 300 spins.  Obviously a statistically insignificant number of spins, especially figuring that my personal example is spread over 3 sessions on even/odd and hi/lo only.

So based on the methods rules...it's a once and done play.  The bet presents itself, you play it and win or lose you move on.

However, there are alot of other things to consider. 

First... if this method is so very specific that you could potentially hang around for 40-50 spins before making a play...what happens if you pull the first 15-20 numbers off the marquee and they are wrong...it would only take one wrong number to screw the whole deal if it's that fine tuned....but of course you would never know if one number on the marquee was wrong and it caused you to lose or allowed you to win...so invariably there is a small (very small but existent) question as to the validity of the results you get in a b&m if you use the marquee for a one play session.  Good or bad result...you don't know whether to validate or invalidate that play if you didn't personally watch the ball drop...just sayin'

Second ...treatment of zeroes in tracking and play are always an issue and here in the USA we have 2 of those friggin green spots to deal with.  If I am playing say a $100/200/400 progression and I have 2 green spots on the wheel I may have to consider their affect...again...just sayin'

Third and likely the most important ...in this type of tracking and play so far as it applies to what seems to be the current argument.  If there is no specific rule as to how and when to start tracking there can be no difference between me starting on one spin, then someone else starting on the following spin, and yet another person starting on the next or three spins later and then someone else starting on a whole different table.  Our tracking is based on a unique set of results based solely and entirely on the first spin of our entire session.  You change that one originating spin...you have changed the entire tracking and play of the system.  This is magnified by the 2 outcome and 3 spin format.  HLL or RRB  Every method has some form of tracking but if you are tracking inside numbers it may make a difference if I start two spins after someone else playing the same system...but the long progression and high variation of results (37 or 38 numbers instead of hi/lo and green) minimize the inherent problems in outcomes that could be encountered by starting literally 1 or 2 spins earlier or later than another player using the same system.  Don't misconstrue this I'm not talking about competing with another player I am simply noting that you will inevitably and by the rules you will by mandate get completely different results and triggers for the entire duration of the single bet tracking and subsequent play

Now on my small tracking example of actual spins I would have gone 6 wins against 0 losses playing hit and run.  While playing to a loss I would have gone 36-3.  Just using the standard progression that's being kicked around anything better than a 7:1 strike rate has me making money.  Isn't that the goal?  If the method stands up it just comes down to how much you want to risk and how much you want to make.  Playing stand-alone you have to play pretty big units in order to justify the time involved.  But tracked and thrown in on top of a few methods being actively played you could just use $25 or $50 units or whatever fits your style and bankroll and try to amp up each session with 1-3 plays (depending on whether you are playing all 3 EC's or not)

To thoroughly do our due diligence on any type of bet method like this would we not have to track the system with all available spins...then go back and pull the first spin result off and see what it changes?  Then continue to remove the first spin and have the tracker continually re-score the method...just thinkin as I'm typing here.  If you can have 1000 spins with 900 unique starting numbers (just let the last 100 play out) and it plays out...then I think you can consider continuous play vs HAR based on those outcomes...just my opinion

Whether the 6-0 track record falls in line with a 9:1 or a 12:1 a 25:1 or a 6:1 strikerate is still the big question.  Depending on your progression will dictate what strikerate you need.  Testing and playing are the only things that will eventually prove it out one way or the other.  Alot of people are having success and I am not an even chance player but if there's profit in it...I'm good to go...as Gordon Gekko said "Greed is Good" right?

Of course I think someone also once said pigs get fat but hawgs get slaughtered.  I try to keep that one in mind.

There are good arguments on both sides of this and I think sometimes we just have to agree to disagree.  For me...I'm not an even chances guy but I will track it and play it till it really bites me in the ass.  If I can make an additional $50 or $100 a session (assuming the testing shows that the strikerate is really that high) I'll take the money because well...I'm just not one to turn down cash...it's sort of a person policy of mine...accept all cash...it works for me

[TwoCatSam]

KEY

That was a fine bit of writing.  Gives me more to think about.

Sam

[Steve]

I'm the type of person where if I don't see the logic (cause and effect), then I don't believe it.... UNLESS there is statistical data to back it up in which case there is indication my ignorance needs to be cured.

In this case, there is neither logic OR supporting statistical data.

I don't see it getting any simpler. Others see it differently, it happens.

[rouletteKEY]

thanks Two Cat, I was compelled...how's the wife's shoulder?

[TwoCatSam]

KEY

Well, she's still grouchy as an old bear but she's on the mend.  The worse part of the ordeal for her is she can't put on her make-up and fix her hair!  And eating left-handed is no fun.  Finger food is the order of the day!

Thanks for asking.

Since you seem to have thought out this PB thing, let me ask you something that bothers me.  What does waiting for all these past patterns have to do with the one at hand?  Would it not be just the same to select a time of day to log in and play against HLL with LHH?  You would have to hit on top of LHH to lose.  What if I waited for zero as my trigger and then bet LHH? 

Or five reds in a row?  Or any other pattern?  What if I varied the pattern from trot to trot?  I cannot see where what happened twenty or thirty spins ago has any bearing on the present.

Still---I am intrigued by the idea!

Sam

[rouletteKEY]

TwoCat
Yeah like I said I'm not an EC kinda guy but I've thought about this one some because it kinda uses some of the same basics I use in other methods.

Mr J had a method up that kinda uses the same basis if you can extrapolate it across.  If I understood Ken's method it worked kinda like this...if this isn't the way he plays it / this is the way I play it...have the 12 streets marked out (kinda like the different combinations of EC's for PB) then once you get a certain number of spins (I think Ken uses 27 I use 30 because I track in series of 6...I'm tired / just watching football...so I'm not gonna look up Ken's right now) and you get to one remaining street you wait for it to hit...that's the trigger.  Then he plays the 2 numbers that weren't hit in the street.  I play one unit on the number that hit and two units each on the other 2 inside numbers.  So you have a cold set of numbers that are now hopefully waking up.  The main and obvious difference is those dudes are paying me 35:1 instead of 1:1 so I can carry that out almost indefinitely to a win (it usually hits first within about 4-8 spins and the second will hit right away...or go back to sleep in my experience anyways.  So if I hit early I give it another 6 plays or so and if my original hit strung me out a bit I take whatever I can for profit and call it good.

That was a lengthy explanation but it had to be to explain how I see the correlation.  So you have in PB a series of patterns (equated to streets in this example) and then I am looking at it like this.  It's stayed cold for this long...what are the odds that it wakes up while I make 1-3 bets on it?  So that's where all the previous spins become relevant.

Well if it wakes then I guess the odds were pretty good for the casino and I think that's where the bet selection and hit and run comes in.  I don't believe that if a system can't be played continuous that you will be profitable.

However.  I also believe this is a game of catching waves and avoiding troughs and this is a timing method where you seize the moment or you don't.   I like the idea of having systems that you can make arguments for making money on a flat basis and then playing them with a slight progression.  After all it is gambling.  If the numbers make sense I never risk more than a twelfth of my total bank in a session so if I go down in flames I go down in flames.  If you have faith in your systems and the numbers play out...in the end you'll be fine.  If you're too timid to put up some cash when it makes sense to then you're just playing for fun...here's another WallStreet quote..."Anything worth doing is worth doing for money" right

I think this is best played to track and potentially supplement whatever else you are playing...if people are making great money on it that's awesome.  I just can't take that much time to track to make a couple EC bets...doesn't fit my style of play, but that doesn't mean it's not a great fit for someone else.

So I will test this some more and depending how those go will adjust bank accordingly.  But if it doesn't lose 2 in a row like everyone says that it doesn't I would be inclined to use it as a supplemental bet maybe $20/40/80 so that if I did lose I could cover the loss next bet by maybe going more aggressive and tripling up instead of doubling the bet 50/150/450 maybe?  Don't know till I run more numbers but if you have faith in a stable system that very seldom ever loses twice in a row why wouldn't you put up some more cash.  If I lose I lose.  If the decision was sound I lick my wounds and go on.

This of course is why I prefer to play a few inside numbers at best though...even money chances are tough to recover from once you get behind and rushing it only hurts worse...but if the system is that stable and the 2nd loss back to back happens some ridiculously small percentage of the time...what the heck its only money. 

This is obviously totally a psychological thing but on this type of system I would be nervous if I were playing only this system and I was banking on this to make some cash so I was playing bigger units and my bet was RRR or BBB.  I know in this context, or any other for that fact, that it's really no different than RBR or BBR...just my aversion to EC's make me cautious about it to begin with but those triples are just seen too much and being an inside player psychologically the chops just "look" better.  I know they are all technically the same 47% shot each spin...just the way I look at it.

In the end the wheel doesn't have the memory that we do with the paper in front of us so in the end we are simply gambling while telling ourselves that we have an edge.  As long as we keep winning all is well and our little science and math project keeps humming right along.

Because we select when to bet, where to bet and how much to bet I do believe that with proper bet selection and money management we can stay ahead of the curve.  I have...but at any moment that can all change (that's where splitting the bank into 12 sessions comes into play...it's gonna have to hit me in 12 sequential moments...I like my odds there and that's really what this is all about)

Cr*p...did somebody say you were in Oklahoma TwoCat?   I shoulda just picked up a phone.  Worked out...the football game went to overtime and just finished up anyways

[speed]

..do not need to worry, everything will prove us JL until 2020. 

Steve, good posts and useful for everyone except for CP.

[Steve]

Speed, it mostly falls on deaf ears. I honestly thought I'd have learned by now not to waste my time.

[Johnlegend]

John, you said:

You say you must "hit and run", AND you say long term success is yours. You don't understand why your statements are contradictory.

I want to know. that's why I asked the questions.

And I did not dismiss your post. I responded to it. But it still didn't help you understand why your approach doesn't work.

Again people can find out for themselves, it is just rather frustrating to see people go about it all wrong and not understand why it is wrong, despite me explaining it many times.

Please, answer these questions for me:


can someone please explain to me why you can't be greedy and need to stop after a few wins?

why can't you just go to a different table and start again? or tag-team another player who will come and start fresh?

please someone explain it to me.

ps - again john it is nothing personal. you are just very wrong and are misleading people. fact is not mere opinion, and you interpret my expression of fact as arrogance. I'm just confident that 1 + 1 = 2.

Steve you have your ideology of play, I have mine. You skirted around my explanation of why your 10,000 player explanation is flawed. And twisted my explanation of why H.A.R works to suit what you asume is fact. that's why I am doing the challenge Steve. Can I fake my way to 50,000 plus euros from a few hundred?  Of course not.

All people not just you Steve who think math explains EVERYTHING, can't and neverwill understand that math doesn't hold all the anwsers when it comes to beating this game. I played for years as most do AND LOST. that's a fact. When I adopted the H.A.R approach. I started to make overall profit and have never looked back. When I spoke of MENTALY able to beat this game. Your response was you asume everyone already has the capacity to play the system to the rules.

Thats not what I'm talking about. The biggest weak point when it comes to beating this game is a persons MINDSET. Their lack of STAYING POWER, IRON DISCIPLINE, and above all PATIENCE. If I tell 10 people to play PATTERN BREAKER a certain way. You can bet your life,  some of them won't. Theyll fold when they don't get the results they expect.

The people who have what it takes mentaly to beat this game are going to succeed. You and many others basically called  PILOT a liar when he made his claim for PATTERN BREAKER. You had to do this, because you personaly believe only your approach can be successful.

And that's why I am going to prove over the next  1,2,3  however many years it takes to sink in. This game is ABSOLUTELY beatable LONGTERM. When you apply the right method/s strategy of play, and mental approach to it. Players of my ilk will only ever be a tiny minority. I know this already. But just watch what the next 3 years brings. And try and tell me or yourself its all LUCK.