*PATTERN BREAKER*

[DoctorSudoku]

Hi Doctor,
I have an idea to get the best of both progressions. My concern with stopping at 2 has always been that you are ending up with a 1 in 4 chance of losing instead of a 1 in 8 and not betting on the third step you risk missing out on a possible win.

Now what if we gave the casino the benefit of the first step as a virtual bet and dependent on the result we bet the next two steps either FOR or AGAINST the 8th pattern forming. Early on in the PATTERN BREAKER thread there was discussion whether you have just as much luck betting for the last pattern as against the last pattern forming. This would imply that the last pattern did not form or form in its entirety. ie one step of the three steps matched our selection. So why not add some randomness in the way we decide to bet by using the result of the first bet as a trigger FOR or AGAINST.

I propose the following rule when the last pattern remains:
1. Do a Virtual Bet of 0 on the first bet. ie do not bet.

2. IF the result of the virtual bet was a WIN AGAINST the 8th pattern forming on the first step then bet the next two steps AGAINST the rest of the 8th pattern forming. This would mean the casino must MATCH the next two steps of the 8th pattern even though it was not able to match the first step.

3. IF the result of the virtual bet was a LOSS AGAINST the 8th pattern forming on the first step then bet the next two steps FOR the 8th pattern forming. The logic here is we saved a loss on the first step by not betting. So if we were betting AGAINST the pattern then we would have lost the first and, if we continued betting against the pattern, the next two spins could also match the 8th pattern and we would risk losing all 3 steps. So why not follow the trend of the first step and start betting FOR one of the next two spins matching. This would save us if we would otherwise have lost the three steps.

What I like about the above rule is we get to see what the result is and are not left feeling that we should have bet all three steps. We will truly know if we would have won or not. It will also create a little bit of a random situation dictated by random itself. So the only way for random to beat us in this 2 step bet is to choose correctly in resulting in the opposite of this situation

To give a concrete example lets say the last pattern is PPB for baccarat or LLHfor roulette

We wait for the result of the next spin or hand
Scenario 1 : Result is P or L (8th pattern starting to match) our next two bets will be PB or LH. The only way we can lose is for PBP or LHL resulting

Scenario 2:  Result is B or H (8th pattern NOT starting to match) our next two bets will be BP or HL. The only way we can lose is for BPB or HLH resulting.

So for Scenario 1 if we started betting immediately and the 8th pattern did start to form in first two steps but not make it to the 3rd step then we would rue the fact we did not see it through to the end. I know its only 3 units to recover but we are in effect not trusting our strategy enough to take it to the end. This is the whole point of PATTERN BREAKER. We should TRUST in the idea that we want to challenge the casino to the end and not "chicken out" and give the win unnecessarily to the casino.

In Scenario 2 we are not taking advantage of the immediate win but we are still challenging the casino to correct itself and get the next two steps to match the remaining pattern of the 8th. So we are still challenging the casino to overcome the random selection. If we still lose then we give it to the casino but have only lost in 2 steps and still only need to recover 3 units.

I would be interested to hear what others think of this idea. Are we still playing to the true idea of PATTERN BREAKER by creating this additional dynamic challenge for Mr Random to jump over?
I think I may try this for a while and see if my WIN rate still remains high but with the advantage of gaining profit with every win while minimizing my loss.

Cheers.
Ricky

Ricky,

This is truly a gem of a post !

I am definitely going to paper test this one -- thanks for sharing this wonderful idea with us.

[Ricky]

You play PB continuously, you will most likely lose.

Hi Doctor,
you are correct, but with good money management you can handle the losses especially with the 2 step variation.

The good thing about my casino is they have Rapid Baccarat, but I have noticed the Banker bet pays 1:1 but if it wins with a 6 then it pays a dismal 1:2 meaning you only win 1.5 times your bet not 2 times.

In regards to tracking the real tables I find manageable to track multiple tables. I tracked 3 tables on the weekend for all 3 E/C bets at the same time to find the table and E/C to bet on. I use a different player card they freely provide you to record the patterns. I make sure I write doen both the number plus the color R or B so I can keep track of what numbers on the history board have come out.  I have a pattern chart for each E/C pattern and cross them off for each table as they come out. I then know when one is remaining.

Cheers,
Ricky

[bikemotorman]

I found this today by Ellis Davis who is one of the best Baccarat players in the US and just wanted to share it, this guy wins all the time not because he is lucky but because he is skilled.

THE AMATEUR GAMBLER VS THE TRAINED PROFESSIONAL PLAYER:

My purpose is to let prospective students know what they are in for â€" what they need to learn â€" to make an enlightened judgment whether or not they want to undertake this money making the opportunity of Baccarat.

Let’s take the amateur first:

More than 99% of players are amateurs. They see Baccarat as a form of gambling. Typically, they walk into a casino, sit at the first open seat they find at a table in the denomination they prefer. From there they guess based on the shoe history right there on the tote board. There is little or no reason for the amount of their bets except that if they are behind, they tend to bet bigger to catch up. Amateurs pay close attention to how the other players are betting. Since they are all doing the same thing, they are all often betting on the same side.

Amateurs have no clue that guessers only win 43% of their hands on average.

But the casinos know this full well! Therefore casinos purposely design shoes to thwart guesses. They see that as their job. Obviously casinos are VERY good at their job. They win at seemingly impossible rates in a 50/50 game.

Look, if the game were, in fact, random, players would win half the hands and lose half the hands. That’s simple math. In that case there would be no Baccarat.

Why do I call Baccarat a 50/50 game? After play 1, every hand is either an Opposite or a Repeat. An Opposite is when the opposite side wins relative to the last play. A Repeat is when the same side wins again â€" it repeats. The odds of an Opposite or a Repeat are exactly 50/50 on average â€" Pure mathematical fact.

So Ellis, are you saying that if we simply flipped a coin, we would win half the hands instead of only 43%?

Yes, exactly, on average, in the long run â€" while guessers (99%+ of all players) only win 43% of the hands â€" much to the casino’s delight. Flipping a coin would already drastically improve your game BUT it would not achieve our purpose.

In Baccarat our purpose is to win MORE than half the hands. The table odds already get us to 50%. Training can get you to 55 â€" 57%.

That doesn’t sound like much Ellis??? No, and it isn’t. But several of my students have won over a million dollars with only a 55 â€" 57% hit rate.
And BTW, you should always record your hit rate each shoe because what you track you usually improves.

Units won per shoe is another thing the Pro tracks as well as PA â€" (Player Advantage â€" units won / units bet.)

My best trained players achieve a double digit PA â€" 10% or more. To put that in perspective, the very best BJ card counters only achieve a 1/2% PA. Hell, we tip more than that! PA is the best measurement of performance there is.

So a blogger, trying to prove me a fraud a couple years back, challenged me to play Atlantic City with him watching. I played 6 full shoes at 2 different AC casinos to an overall 26% PA â€" probably a world record for 6 shoes. Ha, he began following my bets with bets of his own but with $25 chips and made $1500 dollars of his own. He blogged later that I was a “gifted” player. I’m not a “gifted” player! I’m simply a skilled player. And when I teach you, I teach you EVERYTHING I know. I leave nothing out. I keep no secrets.

What you need to learn to win at Baccarat:

First, you need to STOP looking at the game as gambling. You need to look at it professionally as a search for opportunity. You need to see the game through the eyes of a Pro.

You no longer walk into a casino and sit at any table and guess:

1.) You learn tote board reading â€" how to find the easiest table to beat.
2.) How to use your SAP count to determine the best system to play.
3.) How to play each of 6 systems.
4.) How to bet in accordance with the quality of the game you found.
5.) Practice, practice, practice.

I’ve played tens of thousands of games in the casino over the last 30 years. BUT, I’ve played even more games at home â€" practicing.

But Ellis, it’s easy to play a shoe after you have seen it.

When I play shoes for you to study, the SAP count determines the system I play within the first few hands. I simply play that already established system by its exact rules. I’m not guessing. I’m following a system precisely. Once I establish the system, I simply follow the rules come what may. I NEVER guess.

I have a solid reason for each and every bet. I seldom switch systems â€" perhaps 1 shoe in 10. Then I follow our cash mgt rules to determine where to quit. The progression I play is based on my hit rate in the shoe at hand. THAT is how to play Baccarat professionally. That is what you must learn.

Next, I’ll be showing you some shoes how an amateur plays them vs how a trained Pro plays them.

Just a word here about flat betting: THAT is what you do BEFORE you learn how to play. Show me a shoe you win 5 units flat betting and I’ll win +20 in the same shoe or even better by selecting the best progression. We are not there to fool around â€" We are there to get the money!

To be continued…

[RouletteGhost]

Playing only a 1 2 progression on the first two bets is an idea I’ve entertained before and really like

After all if you can’t risk 3 units this may not be the game for you LOL

[Ricky]

Ricky,

This is truly a gem of a post !

I am definitely going to paper test this one -- thanks for sharing this wonderful idea with us.

Only two games but it worked for me so far. Looking good. Last patterns were BBB and BPP respectively.
On the first game I would have won on the first bet with a P but decided to skip. So then I continued betting AGAINST the pattern with another P and won as the first two results were PP.

A similar scenario occurred in the next game with P resulting on first step which I did not bet and then I started betting with a B to continue the opposite of the last pattern.  I also won this with the result of the first 2 steps being PB.

So in both games random was choosing the complete opposite of the first two steps. This is good for this variation using a two step progression  or I would like to say a 3 step 0-1-2 progression where you continue betting after the 0 bet.

The alternative to this rule would be NOT to bet if the first step was a WIN for the 0 bet. This would be like a non result and would also be positive for our bankroll

Cheers,
Ricky

[Ricky]

I found this today by Ellis Davis who is one of the best Baccarat players in the US and just wanted to share it, this guy wins all the time not because he is lucky but because he is skilled.

THE AMATEUR GAMBLER VS THE TRAINED PROFESSIONAL PLAYER:

My purpose is to let prospective students know what they are in for â€" what they need to learn â€" to make an enlightened judgment whether or not they want to undertake this money making the opportunity of Baccarat.

Let’s take the amateur first:

More than 99% of players are amateurs. They see Baccarat as a form of gambling. Typically, they walk into a casino, sit at the first open seat they find at a table in the denomination they prefer. From there they guess based on the shoe history right there on the tote board. There is little or no reason for the amount of their bets except that if they are behind, they tend to bet bigger to catch up. Amateurs pay close attention to how the other players are betting. Since they are all doing the same thing, they are all often betting on the same side.

Amateurs have no clue that guessers only win 43% of their hands on average.

But the casinos know this full well! Therefore casinos purposely design shoes to thwart guesses. They see that as their job. Obviously casinos are VERY good at their job. They win at seemingly impossible rates in a 50/50 game.

Look, if the game were, in fact, random, players would win half the hands and lose half the hands. That’s simple math. In that case there would be no Baccarat.

Why do I call Baccarat a 50/50 game? After play 1, every hand is either an Opposite or a Repeat. An Opposite is when the opposite side wins relative to the last play. A Repeat is when the same side wins again â€" it repeats. The odds of an Opposite or a Repeat are exactly 50/50 on average â€" Pure mathematical fact.

So Ellis, are you saying that if we simply flipped a coin, we would win half the hands instead of only 43%?

Yes, exactly, on average, in the long run â€" while guessers (99%+ of all players) only win 43% of the hands â€" much to the casino’s delight. Flipping a coin would already drastically improve your game BUT it would not achieve our purpose.

In Baccarat our purpose is to win MORE than half the hands. The table odds already get us to 50%. Training can get you to 55 â€" 57%.

That doesn’t sound like much Ellis??? No, and it isn’t. But several of my students have won over a million dollars with only a 55 â€" 57% hit rate.
And BTW, you should always record your hit rate each shoe because what you track you usually improves.

Units won per shoe is another thing the Pro tracks as well as PA â€" (Player Advantage â€" units won / units bet.)

My best trained players achieve a double digit PA â€" 10% or more. To put that in perspective, the very best BJ card counters only achieve a 1/2% PA. Hell, we tip more than that! PA is the best measurement of performance there is.

So a blogger, trying to prove me a fraud a couple years back, challenged me to play Atlantic City with him watching. I played 6 full shoes at 2 different AC casinos to an overall 26% PA â€" probably a world record for 6 shoes. Ha, he began following my bets with bets of his own but with $25 chips and made $1500 dollars of his own. He blogged later that I was a “gifted” player. I’m not a “gifted” player! I’m simply a skilled player. And when I teach you, I teach you EVERYTHING I know. I leave nothing out. I keep no secrets.

What you need to learn to win at Baccarat:

First, you need to STOP looking at the game as gambling. You need to look at it professionally as a search for opportunity. You need to see the game through the eyes of a Pro.

You no longer walk into a casino and sit at any table and guess:

1.) You learn tote board reading â€" how to find the easiest table to beat.
2.) How to use your SAP count to determine the best system to play.
3.) How to play each of 6 systems.
4.) How to bet in accordance with the quality of the game you found.
5.) Practice, practice, practice.

I’ve played tens of thousands of games in the casino over the last 30 years. BUT, I’ve played even more games at home â€" practicing.

But Ellis, it’s easy to play a shoe after you have seen it.

When I play shoes for you to study, the SAP count determines the system I play within the first few hands. I simply play that already established system by its exact rules. I’m not guessing. I’m following a system precisely. Once I establish the system, I simply follow the rules come what may. I NEVER guess.

I have a solid reason for each and every bet. I seldom switch systems â€" perhaps 1 shoe in 10. Then I follow our cash mgt rules to determine where to quit. The progression I play is based on my hit rate in the shoe at hand. THAT is how to play Baccarat professionally. That is what you must learn.

Next, I’ll be showing you some shoes how an amateur plays them vs how a trained Pro plays them.

Just a word here about flat betting: THAT is what you do BEFORE you learn how to play. Show me a shoe you win 5 units flat betting and I’ll win +20 in the same shoe or even better by selecting the best progression. We are not there to fool around â€" We are there to get the money!

To be continued…

This guy is obviously selling a system and sounds to me very like Jay from Baccarat TKO.
But everything he is saying is more complicated than PATTERN BREAKER. He has a different system (6 in fact) based on what the tendencies of the recent history are. We have ONE system (or two if you play Andre's version) based on the history and so far my hit rate is 100% after 24 games straight. We are continuosly experiencing these phenominal winning streaks. We are not getting back to back losses if at all. We are not getting 50/50 win loss ratio. not even 60/40. We are getting 90/10 or 99/1 or better. I think we can woop this guy in six shoes playing with $1000 base bets.

Be thankful you are part of this forum. We will go down in history, mark my words.

Cheers,
Ricky

[Ricky]

This guy is obviously selling a system and sounds to me very like Jay from Baccarat TKO.
But everything he is saying is more complicated than PATTERN BREAKER. He has a different system (6 in fact) based on what the tendencies of the recent history are. We have ONE system (or two if you play Andre's version) based on the history and so far my hit rate is 100% after 24 games straight. We are continuously experiencing these phenominal winning streaks. We are not getting back to back losses if at all. We are not getting 50/50 win loss ratio. not even 60/40. We are getting 90/10 or 99/1 or better. I think we can woop this guy in six shoes playing with $1000 base bets.

Be thankful you are part of this forum. We will go down in history, mark my words.

Cheers,
Ricky

OK I have updated the speadsheet to better define the Positive Progression with 2 step negative progression  I will deploy. If I get to LEVEL 4 without a double loss in 40 games I will have made 750 dollars. I have already shown I can win 24 or 24  games in a row in 4 days so I think this progression and staking level is doable. To meet my challenge of turning $200 into $100K I will need to repeat this 133 times. But realistically, once I have made $2K I will be able to increase my levels to $100+ bets. This will accelerate my profit. But lets remain conservative for now and see if we can sustain a high winning rate with minimal risk and build our Fighting Fund up to a sustainable level.

Interested in anyone else who has any ideas on how to create a positive progression level to maximize long winning streaks.

Cheers,
Ricky

[Andre Chass]

Hi Andre,
Isn't it great. What I am finding though is I have been deploying 1-1-3 progression but getting a lot of wins on step 2 so not progressing with bankroll. are you experiencing the same. When this happens I sometimes resort to 1-2-3 to get break even on 3rd step.
Cheers,
Ricky

Hi Ricky

I'm testing different progressions.

BPP BPP BP I bet BPB B (the four step)

I've never see a pattern forming for four times. So sometimes I bet a four step progression.

1-1-3-6 and I NEVER lose!

My bankroll is growing up like a hell

Cheers

PS: I only bet two patterns

BPP or PBB

I'm not betting BBP and PPB  because I realized it doesn't work.

[Andre Chass]

Can you give me the exact details of how to find this site Andre please.

Sentinel3

I think it's not available in some countries.

You google Betboo enter the site and open an account.

What's happening when you try for it?

[DoctorSudoku]

I found this today by Ellis Davis who is one of the best Baccarat players in the US and just wanted to share it, this guy wins all the time not because he is lucky but because he is skilled.

THE AMATEUR GAMBLER VS THE TRAINED PROFESSIONAL PLAYER:

My purpose is to let prospective students know what they are in for â€" what they need to learn â€" to make an enlightened judgment whether or not they want to undertake this money making the opportunity of Baccarat.

Let’s take the amateur first:

More than 99% of players are amateurs. They see Baccarat as a form of gambling. Typically, they walk into a casino, sit at the first open seat they find at a table in the denomination they prefer. From there they guess based on the shoe history right there on the tote board. There is little or no reason for the amount of their bets except that if they are behind, they tend to bet bigger to catch up. Amateurs pay close attention to how the other players are betting. Since they are all doing the same thing, they are all often betting on the same side.

Amateurs have no clue that guessers only win 43% of their hands on average.

But the casinos know this full well! Therefore casinos purposely design shoes to thwart guesses. They see that as their job. Obviously casinos are VERY good at their job. They win at seemingly impossible rates in a 50/50 game.

Look, if the game were, in fact, random, players would win half the hands and lose half the hands. That’s simple math. In that case there would be no Baccarat.

Why do I call Baccarat a 50/50 game? After play 1, every hand is either an Opposite or a Repeat. An Opposite is when the opposite side wins relative to the last play. A Repeat is when the same side wins again â€" it repeats. The odds of an Opposite or a Repeat are exactly 50/50 on average â€" Pure mathematical fact.

So Ellis, are you saying that if we simply flipped a coin, we would win half the hands instead of only 43%?

Yes, exactly, on average, in the long run â€" while guessers (99%+ of all players) only win 43% of the hands â€" much to the casino’s delight. Flipping a coin would already drastically improve your game BUT it would not achieve our purpose.

In Baccarat our purpose is to win MORE than half the hands. The table odds already get us to 50%. Training can get you to 55 â€" 57%.

That doesn’t sound like much Ellis??? No, and it isn’t. But several of my students have won over a million dollars with only a 55 â€" 57% hit rate.
And BTW, you should always record your hit rate each shoe because what you track you usually improves.

Units won per shoe is another thing the Pro tracks as well as PA â€" (Player Advantage â€" units won / units bet.)

My best trained players achieve a double digit PA â€" 10% or more. To put that in perspective, the very best BJ card counters only achieve a 1/2% PA. Hell, we tip more than that! PA is the best measurement of performance there is.

So a blogger, trying to prove me a fraud a couple years back, challenged me to play Atlantic City with him watching. I played 6 full shoes at 2 different AC casinos to an overall 26% PA â€" probably a world record for 6 shoes. Ha, he began following my bets with bets of his own but with $25 chips and made $1500 dollars of his own. He blogged later that I was a “gifted” player. I’m not a “gifted” player! I’m simply a skilled player. And when I teach you, I teach you EVERYTHING I know. I leave nothing out. I keep no secrets.

What you need to learn to win at Baccarat:

First, you need to STOP looking at the game as gambling. You need to look at it professionally as a search for opportunity. You need to see the game through the eyes of a Pro.

You no longer walk into a casino and sit at any table and guess:


1.) You learn tote board reading â€" how to find the easiest table to beat.
2.) How to use your SAP count to determine the best system to play.
3.) How to play each of 6 systems.
4.) How to bet in accordance with the quality of the game you found.
5.) Practice, practice, practice.


I’ve played tens of thousands of games in the casino over the last 30 years. BUT, I’ve played even more games at home â€" practicing.

But Ellis, it’s easy to play a shoe after you have seen it.

When I play shoes for you to study, the SAP count determines the system I play within the first few hands. I simply play that already established system by its exact rules. I’m not guessing. I’m following a system precisely. Once I establish the system, I simply follow the rules come what may. I NEVER guess.

I have a solid reason for each and every bet. I seldom switch systems â€" perhaps 1 shoe in 10. Then I follow our cash mgt rules to determine where to quit. The progression I play is based on my hit rate in the shoe at hand. THAT is how to play Baccarat professionally. That is what you must learn.

Next, I’ll be showing you some shoes how an amateur plays them vs how a trained Pro plays them.

Just a word here about flat betting: THAT is what you do BEFORE you learn how to play. Show me a shoe you win 5 units flat betting and I’ll win +20 in the same shoe or even better by selecting the best progression. We are not there to fool around â€" We are there to get the money!

To be continued…

Stuart,

Thanks for an interesting post.

Ellis is a pretty controversial name in baccarat circles.

He is a very polarizing figure.

He has his legion of devotees who swears by every word he says.

And then he has an even bigger legion of detractors who call him all sorts of derogatory names -- "scammer" being one of the milder ones !

I have never purchased any of his systems, so I cannot say whether his pattern-based methods work or not.

But some of the general pieces of betting advice that he doles out is very sound.

The quote that I have highlighted above is one such example.

We all want a method that can work flat betting.

But if you come across such a system that can win flat betting, then it is also true that you can possibly win more with a progression.

Of course, the caveat is that a system using a progression will lead to greater drawdowns when you hit those inevitable losing streaks (especially, if the progression you are using is a negative one).

So you will need to have a much larger bank roll to weather these storms. 

[DoctorSudoku]

Hi Ricky

I'm testing different progressions.

BPP BPP BP I bet BPB B (the four step)

I've never see a pattern forming for four times. So sometimes I bet a four step progression.

1-1-3-6 and I NEVER lose!

My bankroll is growing up like a hell

Cheers

PS: I only bet two patterns

BPP or PBB

I'm not betting BBP and PPB  because I realized it doesn't work.

Andre,

The 1 1 3 6 progression is, of course, a very bold one.

From your limited collection of statistics so far, in what percentage of triggers/games, have you been forced to go to that level?

[cht]

There should not be exposure to steep progression to recover loss.

Either bet virtual loss/1/1 or 1/1 for 2 units risk, or virtual loss/1/2 or 1/2 for 3 units risk per game.

Improve betselection to attain high win rate is the way to go imho.

[cht]

A solid betselection allows you to have a small br. Here I play with 4 units br 1/1 risking 2 units per game.

[DoctorSudoku]

There should not be exposure to steep progression to recover loss.

Either bet virtual loss/1/1 or 1/1 for 2 units risk, or virtual loss/1/2 or 1/2 for 3 units risk per game.

Improve betselection to attain high win rate is the way to go imho.

I agree -- that is why I use the 1 2 progression continuously.

And if I hit a losing streak, I still stick to the 1 2 progression (without increasing the actual dollar amounts of the betting units).



Off-topic:
Commiserations about what happened yesterday. The special one is losing his specialness right before your eyes.

[DoctorSudoku]

A solid betselection allows you to have a small br. Here I play with 4 units br 1/1 risking 2 units per game.

And, yes, bet selection matters.

Some bet selections are simply better than others (even if we cannot explain the reasons for that disparity -- it could be the layout of the numbers on the wheel or some other factor).