*MATRIX VERTICAL 5* (FOR HI & LO)

[TwoCatSam]

amk

I only did a few thousand spins as I could see exactly where it was going.  There were 7 double losses.  There were three in a low.  There were only 12 single loses before a double loss.  Nothing close to what John predicted.

Sorry.........

Sam

[amk]

Where there less then 49 single losses Sam?   7 x 7 = -49

Then the average says you should have tested around 350 sessions of PB.   49 x 7 = -343

Can you see how many sessions you tested?

[TwoCatSam]

amk

There is a slim possibility I did the last study wrong.  I am going to run another 100,000 spins and do a quick check.  I think I have found a way to cut and paste them into the forum so you can see for yourself.

Back as soon as possible.

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

amk

Here are over 45,000 spins.  This is set with a progression of 1 2 4 and stop.  In those spins, the bot lost 67 cents.  So it plays very evenly.

When you open the .rar file. the top session should be the newest.  If not, simply re-orgainze with the heading above. 

You can see how many two in arow losses occur.

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

Consider this:  You lose the first try; you are down 7 units.  Let's be bold and raise our bet to 8 16 32.  Will win back our seven plus one.

What if we lose two in a row?  7+8+16+32=65.  If you lost two in a row, you would have to win 65 in a row to break even.  Not one more loss during that 65 spin trot.  In my searches through the file, you just don't find a 65 win trot before the loss--with enough frequency to show a profit.

I'm pressed for time and can't do any more at this time.  If anyone is interested, tell me the settings you want for the bot and I'll set it over night.

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

Here is the way I'm going to set the bot for the next 100,000 spins.  On each loss, the bet increases by 7.  It does not go back to one until a new high is reached.

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

That does not work at all.  Down over $500.00 playing pennies.

[amk]

Hey Sam,

I cant figure out too much info from your file concerning the single and double losses. Would you mind showing how many single and double losses, if you can see them, as I cant figure out how to.

Its a shame you cant get the bot to only play after a single loss.

A single loss would be the trigger.

In order for this to fail longterm it would mean that a double loss happens once every 7 single losses. This would be the same as a single loss happening every 7 games which all stat tests show to be the case.

My feeling is that this 1 loss in every 7 games cannot be the same for single losses, double losses and triple losses etc.

For example, our trigger is a double loss. Will a triple loss also occur once after every 7 double losses seen?

A triple loss is extremely rare and my logic says it can therefor not appear enough times to create an average that is the same as a single loss followed by a double loss.

[Azim]

Amk,

Can you explain?.. 
This is what I understood:

We have 8-9 patterns. We track them all and when we have 1 left example:
LHL.  For the next 3 spins we bet HLH using a 1,2,4 progression.

If I did my first bet, at spin 25,26,27 and lost.  I am re-tracking this starting from spin 28->
now we have LLH,  we bet 1,2,4 again.  We win, we only won 1 unit.
If we had lost that would be your second loss in a row. 

Now, from what I understand in what you asking Sam to do is to track this for you..

25->26->27-> We lost.
45->46->47-> We won.
66->67->68->We won.

Which is how many times we lost in row, or singles. How many times we won once or in row and for how long before a loss, is that right?

[TwoCatSam]

amk

Here is the worksheet for several hundred spins.  Start at column one.  The "22" means it went 22 wins before the first loss.  Then it went 7 wins before the second loss.  And so on........

Double losses are highlighted.

I will ask Nick if he can modify the sheet to where it waits until the first loss and only bets after that.  What would be the progression?  1 2 4?

Please understand this is the bot's RNG and not BV or Dublin spins.  However, I can run real spins from a .txt file if you have several thousand (anyone?) that you'd like me to run

Sam

[amk]

Sorry for not replying sooner Sam and Azmin,

Yes the prog is just 1-2-4 Sam and thanks for taking the time to explain the file data!


Azmin, you have a good point. A double loss in my interpretation of JLs stats is actually the following.

A session of PB is played and lost.

Now a completely new game is started not taking into account the last games spin results. I will have to double check if I can find the info but JL did not backtrack with PB play. He played +-5 games per day. Not back to back but randomly, one at 9am, the second at 10am etc.

This is how his double loss stat was filed. So he lost a 9am and then again at 10am, a double loss.

I guess backtracking is in essence the same but is by actual playing definition (how JL played) different.

[TwoCatSam]

Well, I've tried everything.  The double losses come as frequently as the sunrise--just as most folks predicted.  I have set the bot and run it many thousands of spins--no, hundreds of thousands.  There is nothing here.

I can sometimes see JL's thinking process as it "seems" unlikely that eight of eight would form.  But if you think about it long enough, you will begin to ask why?  Why is is strange?  Actually, it's not.

As to his "Hit and Run" theory--every time you play you have the same negative expectation.  So every time you jump in to play, it is exactly the same as any other time.  He stated you would have to hit dead-center on the spin that would make you lose.  Yes!!  And it's very easy to do that!

So I'm done.  Enough time and effort for this puppy.

Next..............

Sam

[amk]

Your making me believe there is no way to win at roulette Sam : )

Glad we both thought this might have a chance.

Who knows what would happen if you tried your luck for just 1000 games.

You have to start somewhere!

[TwoCatSam]

What is, is.

I think John was so self-deluded he truly believed this.

One can always ask, "What would have happened?" if only............

My answer is this goes against math and we just can't make water run uphill.

Sam

[rouletteKEY]

Hey...speak for yourself Sam...I do make water run uphill occassionally when the situation allows for it... and I pump it uphill all the time...but then again maybe that's not such a big deal for me since it's kinda what I do for a living   

It is the falling water that makes everybody ooh and aah though...at least we can count on gravity