Single events using bollinger bands observations for even money bets

[ego]

Assume there only exist three direction that the even money distribution can take, so the probability is 1/3.
Then we can observe this three formations or waves very easy.

First formations is when series of series chop - at least twice and above - is the first wave or formation.
We can call it dozen one.

RRRBB or BBBRRBBRRRRRBBBRRR

If we observe only series they will come as single events or series of series using the same principals following the average of the law of series.
It will be more single events of series then there will be two series in a row and there will be more series of two in a row then three series in a row.

Second wave is the opposite when singles events alternating - at least two - so series of singles event alternating can come as one singles event or as a serie of two or three and so on.
That is dozen two.

RBR or RBRBR

Last one is when we get no series at all and one singel event of series and one singel event as singel appears - alternating.
Then there is no formation of series in none of the direction I mention above - the singel events of the two opposite direction is alternating or hovering with out creating any formations of series.
That is dozen three.

RRR B RRR B RRR B RRRR or BBB R BB R BBBBB R BBB

Here can you read about bollinger bands:
link:://:.bollingerbands.com/

Just to illustrate this with a simple example we could play against series of three or a dozen to appear three time or more during our observations, so we place our bets after every serie appears once and try to capture as a singel event or that we will get one of the two other states to appear.

I test this for around 1024 trails as fluctuation is due to show during that sample to certain degree.

300 TRAILS

LL
WWWWLL
WWWWWWWWWLWWLL
WWWLL
LWWLWLWWLL
LWWLWLWWWWWLL
WLWWLW

300 TRAILS

WLWLWWLWWLL
WWLWLWWWWLWWWLWLL
WLWWLL
WLWWLL
WLL
WLL
WWLWLWWWLWWWWWLW

300 TRAILS

WLWWWLWWLWWWWLWLWLL
WWWLWWWWLWLL
WWWWLWWWLL
WLWLL
WLWLL
LL
LWLL
WW

300 TRAILS

LWLWLWLL
WWWLWLWLL
WWLL
LWWLL
WWLL
WWWWWLL
WWWLWWLL
LL
LWWWLWWWLL

Note.
If some one is into trending I would look into the distribution and make observation I mention above.

[wolfat]

Hi,
it sounds very interesting. . .
could you provide a sample in practical play?
tx a lot

[ego]

Just pick any random sample of read and black.

1. After you see one series of reds or blacks with any length and the oppisite appers like RRRB you play red as it will create one single event.
If a loss you will have two series in a row RRRBB then you wait until the oppisite appers like RRRBBR now you play black.
If a loss you have three series in a row.

But using bollinger bands you will bet that one single serie will apper or that singels will apper so you have 1/3.
Pick a random sample of 300 trails and put a W as in win and a L as in loss for every bet and you will get the same results as above.

If you lose two attempts you wait for the series that chop to end choping as that one single appers to break that trend and after that you bet again after the first serie appers for two more attempts.

Illustration.
20110204 random org.
1 stands for red
2 stands for black

2
1
2
2
1
2 W session 1 start
2
2
1
1 L
1
1
2
1 W
1
1
1
1
2
1 W
1
1
1
1
1
2
1 W
2
2
1
1 L
2
1 W
2
2
2
1
2 W
1
2
1
1
2
2 L
1
2 W
1
2
1
1
2
1 W
1
2
1 W
2
2
1
1 L
1
1
1
2
1 W
2
2
1
1 L
1
1
2
1 W
2
2
1
1 L
1
1
1
1
1
2
2 L session 1 end
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
2 W session 2 start
1
2
2
1
2 W
2
1
2 W
2
1
1 L
2
1 W
2
1
1
2
1 W
2
1
2
2
2
1
2 W
1
2
1
1
2
2 L
2
1
2 W
2
1
1 L
1
2
2 L session 2 end
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
2
1
2 W
1

[ego]

The difference using bollinger bands or three states is that you capture or ride two horses in the same time as the distribution creates as many singel series as one isolated event as singels by them self.
Using three reds or three blacks you just have one horse to ride.

I assume that is why the fluctuation is so low and the strike ratio so high.

[ego]

Todays file with bad swings of hits.
20110518 random org.

WWWWLL
LL
LL
WLWLWLL
LWLL
WLWWLL
LWLWWLL
WLWLL
WWLL
LL
WLWWLWWWLW

[ego]

I did not notice this before - now i have.

NOTE qlerification

1. Every state is alternating in its own way and end sooner or later with one out of the two oppisite states.
To illustrate this we can take one red and one black zick zack witch will end with two reds or two blacks witch is one state.
But using bollinger bands we have two states as posibilitys that will apper as oppisite effect.
No matter is there is series that chop or singles events that chop or if the state is hovering it will allways remain two states with no show.

Pretty cool

[wolfat]

Tx Ego,
now it's clear.  I'll do some trials.
I'll keep you updated.
ciao

[albertojonas]

very interesting thread.

Congrats Ego.

Howewer i do not know if i got it perfectly. Can you please check my example? Sorry to bother you.
thank you

[Red Nickels]

What about the zeroes?  where I live there are two of them on the wheel (although I could probably find a wheel with just one zeroe and higher minimum bets, if I looked hard enough.)  the point is, would we just ignore zeroes and continue with the bet selection as if the zeroes never interrupted the pattern, or what?  or on the other hand since I would usually be dealing with a double zeroe wheel, perhaps I should assign the color black (or red) to 0 and red (or black) to 00, in which case when a zeroe hits it might be considered a win if the color assignment is what we were betting, even though we would take a loss on it.

[albertojonas]

What about the zeroes?  where I live there are two of them on the wheel (although I could probably find a wheel with just one zeroe and higher minimum bets, if I looked hard enough.)  the point is, would we just ignore zeroes and continue with the bet selection as if the zeroes never interrupted the pattern, or what?  or on the other hand since I would usually be dealing with a double zeroe wheel, perhaps I should assign the color black (or red) to 0 and red (or black) to 00, in which case when a zeroe hits it might be considered a win if the color assignment is what we were betting, even though we would take a loss on it.

on double zero i would go for assign one color to each
red 0
black 00
for instance

i just do not fully understand the bet selection

[Red Nickels]

I think it is not hard to follow, but I have to mull it over a bit.  I have only read through it very quickly, but I think I get the idea.  when I have time, I might explain it later after I read it again and check it on my spin data, or no doubt the author or someone else may explain it some more.

oh I just thought of a better idea as pertains to the zeroes-- don't play roulette, play baccarat (mini-bac), it's better and faster.  but first let's see if this attempt to make order out of random chaos has any teeth.

if it's a decent bet selection then maybe it can be worked with (money management, oscar's grind, whatever...  unless it does well with just flat bets, which would be nice, in which case I would leave it as is... but.. when you can never have a positive expectation... on any spin, no matter when you bet or how you bet...  turning that around somehow into a positive expectation is quite the trick indeed... )

[wolfat]

still run a small test of 20 shoes (I applied it at bac)
W/L ended even 94 vs 94

[Red Nickels]

Still run a small test of 20 shoes (I applied it at bac)
W/L ended even 94 vs 94

so that is not very encouraging, no different than just taking any even chance and betting it every spin (or hand.)  after 20 years of dealing with roulette, this is exactly what I have come to expect-- everything always come out a wash no matter how or when or how much you bet or where you place your chips-- and the house edge will prevail...

[albertojonas]

so that is not very encouraging, no different than just taking any even chance and betting it every spin (or hand.)  after 20 years of dealing with roulette, this is exactly what I have come to expect-- everything always come out a wash no matter how or when or how much you bet or where you place your chips-- and the house edge will prevail...

maybe you did not get yet
the fundamentals of this bet selection.
i am still studying it but i can show you now how far i got.
hope Ego comes back and shed some more light in this

[Red Nickels]

Have not had a chance to study and think about this method yet, will do.  if wolfat tested 20 shoes and there was no profit (would be many hours at the casino and would be a loss from banker commissions even if came out even with W/L's), that does not sound too encouraging.