Flatbetting

[GLC]

I want to continue our discussion re: flat betting vs negative progressions vs positive progressions without using monaco's introductory post.

I was just thinking about the statement I made a while back that every negative progression is ultimately either a pure martingale or a modified martingale.  That's because with a pure martingale you play until you win a bet or lose everything doubling up or reach the table limit.  With Alembert, you play until you lose enough times close enough together to either lose all your money or you eventully reach the table limit.  Alembert is actually a stretched martingale.  Same thing for every other progression.
The boffins bet is a let it ride bet and it's really a double martingale since you are playing for two wins in a row instead of one win per original martingale.

I would like to suggest that a progression is also a modified flat bet.  Let's take a 2-step martingale.  You bet 1 unit and if it loses you next bet 2 units.  If either of them wins, you are up 1 unit.  If both of them lose, you are down 3 units.  Continue to repeat this process and all you're doing is playing a 3 unit flat bet but you have to lose 2 bets to lose a 3 unit bet.

My guess is that if you played this bet for 10,000 spins, you would wind up at the same win or loss point as if you just bet 1 unit for the same 10,000 spins.

If this is true, I'm only 99% sure it is, then any limited martingale works the same way.  One of my favorite systems requires a 5 step martingale.  The way I look at it is I and betting a 31 unit flat bet that takes 5 bets to lose.  If I have an advantage with this system flat betting, I will also have an advantage with my limited martingale. 

My other concern is trying to determine if you have an advantage flat betting or not.  Spin fluctuations can cover 1000's of spins.  This means that you have to test for thousands of spins to even hope that your bet selection method overcomes the house edge.  I would be surprised if any bet selection method overcomes the house edge by more than a couple of percentage points and with such a small edge, if the spins you test your system on are skewed even a little in your favor, you may think you have a winner only to have the fluctuation correct itself when you start playing for real.  A computer test of hundreds of thousand spins is better, but since nobody plays that many hands in a row, it may not be that valid either.

Take into consideration a person's luck factor and he could win the rest of his life with a terrible system or vice versa.

All things considered, playing style and discipline start to take on more and more value if one is to be a long-term winner.  A little luck never hurts.

Read my book review under this section where the author emphasizes experience and self-control as of paramount importance.  He too uses a positive progression.  He rates most of the various negative progressions at the bottom of the chart and places the positive progressions at the top.  Go figure.

I invite all thoughtful members of this forum to add your perspectives if you have time.

Thanks,

George

See the following topic for the beginning of this gentleman's discussion between myself and Victor.

link:://rouletteforum.cc/newcomer%27s-space/hello-all/msg52461/#new

[chrisbis]

What are U thoughts on a Mild progression for the flat bet (inside numbers only)?

The usual result, is, U only end up with approx 20 levels to rise to:-
(dependent on Table limits of-course!)

I suppose the Ultimate question that anyone could ask, is, how DO u recover those flat bets (values), when There Lost Flat Bets?

[albertojonas]

What are you thoughts on a Mild progression for the flat bet (inside numbers only)?

The usual result, is, you only end up with approx 20 levels to rise to:-
(dependent on Table limits of-course!)

I suppose the Ultimate question that anyone could ask, is, how DO you recover those flat bets (values), when There Lost Flat Bets?

I think you play less numbers and make less attacks. One must refine the bet selection to the maximum.

I am also in love with positive progressions... For me its the way to go. Small investment - great profits.

[chrisbis]

Bet selection is an Absolute.

I for my part, I call it 'Bet Design'.

I chart ALL of the landings in any one session, and then review after the game, looking for the Current Trend.

Then I set out to 'Design' a bet (Flat to start with) that will Dovetail with this Current trend, and Maximize the Flat bet.

But Always, Always, Always, I'm brought back to the Niggling thought that crosses my Mind:- How do I set about recouping Those Flat bets, when I have Lost a session, or the Current Trend- Has CHANGED!!

At one point few weeks ago, I was designing a new type of Bet- everyday!!

Tho invariably, each one ends up with some form of Progression attached to them, to recoup those Accumulated Loses!

Even with a straight "Formalised" Flat Bet, Ur loses are bound to grow, and in ANY measure of Loss/Gain, those loses could be said to be exactly the same, as a bad run on a Negative Progression Run!

Most, I guess, would say, U just Write those off!!................and take the hit!

[albertojonas]

Bet selection is an Absolute.

I for my part, I call it 'Bet Design'.

I chart ALL of the landings in any one session, and then review after the game, looking for the Current Trend.

Then I set out to 'Design' a bet (Flat to start with) that will Dovetail with this Current trend, and Maximize the Flat bet.

But Always, Always, Always, I'm brought back to the Niggling thought that crosses my Mind:- How do I set about recouping Those Flat bets, when I have Lost a session, or the Current Trend- Has CHANGED!!

At one point few weeks ago, I was designing a new type of Bet- everyday!!

Tho invariably, each one ends up with some form of Progression attached to them, to recoup those Accumulated Loses!

Even with a straight "Formalised" Flat Bet, your loses are bound to grow, and in ANY measure of Loss/Gain, those loses could be said to be exactly the same, as a bad run on a Negative Progression Run!

Most, I guess, would say, you just Write those off!!................and take the hit!

i suggest you take a look at last of EGO posts
;-)

[VLS]

Chris, flat betting a single session doesn't limit your ability to compound.

So, you do not want to get your losses back in your next session, but rather in a series of winning sessions, rising your bet's base unit.

If you could develop a bet selection where all the winning sessions clump in a block and all the negative sessions clump in another somewhat well-defined block, then you can be a millionaire by compounding your unit after a winning session and by decreasing your unit to the very minimum until it "evens out" in your limited numerical sample. Remember the amount placed on the felt per each bet and the hit rate are two separate things, think along the lines of earning $10's and "evening out" in pennies. If you can get better accuracy, then the greater your certainty of having good sessions clump, and of having a viable scenario for such a scheme.

Concentration and dispersion of winning and losing sessions is a fact and you have to adapt your inter-session money management to this reality, not aiming for a full recoup in yor next SINGLE-SESSION.

Regards,
Victor

[chrisbis]

Accuracy, is my Primary Aim! Lol

But random, does not concern itself with Accuracy much 

[GLC]

So far Project 202 is my favorite gambling system.  It's a flatbet for a 37/38 spin cycle then adjust the size of your bet moderately for the next cycle.  This recovers your losses more quickly (at least more quickly than with a true flat bet) without wildly escalating bets.  It is dependent on a larger than expected loss to win ratio correcting itself in a time frame your bank can handle.

I have been playing this method off and on for quite a while now and I am steadily increasing the size of my bank.  I have been using my basic follow-the-last for about 90% of the time with a jump to opposite-the-last if I get 3 chops in a row.  I started off winning, and have never been negative with this method.

I'm a little surprised that more of you don't look into this method of gambling.  The author shows you how to adapt it to blackjack, craps, horse racing, greyhound racing, even slots.

I have only read 1 negative comment regarding this method.  It was that if you do have  a very bad run and go into the hole very far, it can be a long crawl out.  All I have to say about that is "Duh".  Same can be said for flat betting.

G

[GLC]

One last point.

Is this way of playing boring as h-ll?  You better believe it!

Of course when I'm betting $25 units it'll ratchet the interest level up a few notches.

G

[esoito]

Seems there are two options:

Excitement + High risk of capital (progressions)

Boredom + Low risk of capital (flat betting)

For some it's a case of either or. And that depends on the players' reasons for playing i.e entertainment or profit.

Or it that too black and white?

[joiner29]

where can project 202 be found sounds interesting

[Tomla021]

im going to give this a small go at blackjack tommorow

[GLC]

Where can project 202 be found sounds interesting

link:://rouletteforum.cc/money-management/project-202/

Go to the last of the topic replies where I posted almost the whole method.

If you want more, I can post all of it.

I didn't post the parts on horse racing, slots, blackjack, etc...

[nightmouse]

Not sure which section to post, but I have sometime to share about roulette.  After spending 8 years playing, and losing money.  Some learning for public:

1.  If you dont know how to gamble, dont start.  Dont learn.

2.  Roulette dealer has ablity to control ball landing location IF YOU BET big sum (like 50xtable minimum single bet or more).  Hard to believe? Try again.  Because it will cause player (who dont believe) a lot.  Some casinos are un-regulated by corrupt government. 
Case in court where dealer work with player to land ball on certain number (section of number) in favor of certain player already common in news.  This paragraph worth years of frustration and learning for new player out there.

3.  If you are regular to certain casino (and bet big, u have a big bull eye on your forehead), casino will learn your betting pattern and ask dealer to spin your regular un-covered number.  Try to blend in, bet regular sum. 

4.  System are bad, casino will predict your system and land the ball on uncovered number.

5.  One or two random spin does not means the dealer will continue spin randomly.  Look carefully when dealer spin and listen to the sound of ball rolling on wheel, if it sound smooth and slow.  Leave the table.  .

6.  Most casino are shameless, they will do whatever to clean your pocket.  But when you win some money in continous day or games, they will try to stop you, whatever it takes.  (case in point: card counting, and bias roulette case).

Sorry if I you find my posting useless . . .  have a good win for players out there . . .

[ego]

GLC nice post and topic.
Lets get back to basic that many forget about.

First the staking plan is simple when we talk about true flat betting.
We have to gain at least +1 unit witch overcome the attempts doing so.

Then it becomes very simple to chart and test if a method holds up or get large down-swings.
That should be the first bench mark before testing any kind of negative or positive progression.

My opinion is that if some one can gain 10% out of 1024 placed bets flat betting - then some one has a valid and good method.

Its strike me some-times when i read about Oscar Grind that it boils down to what kind of selection one use - they all should be the same - but i know by experience that there is does who has a higher and more stabel hit ratio then others - but they all have there loses - so it again boils down to use periodic cycels or periodic momentums to recoup and try to delay and avoid a total failure.

Cheers