Odds of repeat?

[Maui13]

If you had spun the wheel 36 times...

What are the odds that you would get a 9 time repeat in there?

In other words, if I had a sequence of 9 - what are the odds, that within the next 27 spins, that sequence would be repeated.(the sequence consisting out of dozens & columns)

That said, if you had to bet 9 times in a row, what progression would you use?




 

[Bayes]

odds of the exact same sequence is (12/37)⁹ ~ 0.004% or approximately 1 in 25,000.

[MrJ]

This has been talked about many times before. There are actually TWO answers, it depends on HOW the question is asked.

For example >> What are the odds of the same number hitting 5 times in a row (0 wheel)?

If you said 37 to the 5th, thats wrong. Its 1 in 37 for every spin BUT if you have a
PRE-CHOSEN  (you say it, or wrote it down or even was thinking it) set and that hits, then its 37 to the 5th. EXAMPLE: I guess the 34, 12, 5, 34 & 18. If it hits in THAT ORDER, its 37 to the 5th.

Ken

[Maui13]

Thank you Bayes for the mathematical answer...LOVE THOSE ODDS!!! 

Ken, that's why I asked ....  "  if I had a sequence of 9"

Let's say... Dozens 1,2,3...Columns A,B,C

1 A 2 B 3 C 2 B 1 - Sequence of 9
X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X
--------------------- - This sequence a repeat of the first sequence

Mmm....now that I look at it like this, maybe I did ask it wrong

Ok, in 36 spins, 9 sequence is repeated after another 18 spins to complete 36 spins.

Odds of that happening??? Exact same sequence!

[Bayes]

If you mean the exact same sequence repeating, the odds I posted are correct, it doesn't matter where the sequence repeats.

The problem is though, you need to bet against that sequence, ie; covering 24 numbers, and that means tripling up. 

[Bayes]

This has been talked about many times before. There are actually TWO answers, it depends on HOW the question is asked.

For example >> What are the odds of the same number hitting 5 times in a row (0 wheel)?

If you said 37 to the 5th, that's wrong. Its 1 in 37 for every spin BUT if you have a
PRE-CHOSEN  (you say it, or wrote it down or even was thinking it) set and that hits, then its 37 to the 5th. EXAMPLE: I guess the 34, 12, 5, 34 & 18. If it hits in THAT ORDER, its 37 to the 5th.

Ken

Right Ken. If you don't pick the number in advance, the probability increases to the 4th power, because your first number could be any of the 37, then it has to repeat another 4 times only.

[Maui13]

Bayes,

I don't fully understand what you meant with covering 24 numbers?

I want to start testing it ..playing it like CODE 4.... so just betting the opposite 2 x D/C ?

[Bayes]

maui, I don't know how code 4 works, but if you want to guarantee a win betting that a particular sequence of D/C won't repeat, you need to bet the other 2 D/C yes? that's 24 numbers.

[MrJ]

But this is correct >> EXAMPLE: I guess the 34, 12, 5, 34 & 18. If it hits in THAT ORDER, its 37 to the 5th.

Ken

[vundarosa]

Thank you Bayes for the mathematical answer...LOVE THOSE ODDS!!! 

Ken, that's why I asked ....  "  if I had a sequence of 9"

Let's say... Dozens 1,2,3...Columns A,B,C

1 A 2 B 3 C 2 B 1 - Sequence of 9
X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X
--------------------- - This sequence a repeat of the first sequence

Mmm....now that I look at it like this, maybe I did ask it wrong

Ok, in 36 spins, 9 sequence is repeated after another 18 spins to complete 36 spins.

Odds of that happening??? Exact same sequence!

---------------

one problem....table limit... that's 9841 units to cover the whole progression....and your unit will be so small compared to your BR

i think there are better uses of 10000u than this type of betting

vundarosa

[Maui13]

Ok wait wait wait...

I think we're all misunderstanding each other...

The question was - ODDS of a SEQUENCE of 9 repeating within 36 spins ??

So what are the odds?? - I think Bayes covered that

Then I want to play a modified CODE 4, but 9 wide. Betting against the same sequence repeating itself after 18 more spins.

So I would apply flat betting, hoping that 5 out of the 9 would NOT be the same (more odds)
to be +5. If this line fails, I would bump up the progression.

So technically, if I have 9 sequence it would mean 9 x 2 (2 single units per step of the sequence) = that's 18 units. That's why I don't get the 24??

I would only bet the last 9 spins of the 36.

[Bayes]

But this is correct >> EXAMPLE: I guess the 34, 12, 5, 34 & 18. If it hits in THAT ORDER, its 37 to the 5th.

Ken

Yes.

@ maui,

You've lost me. How many numbers are you betting? if you want to bet that a particular D/C won't repeat, which I assume is your goal, then you have to bet that one of the numbers which aren't in that D/C will hit on any given spin in the sequence, correct? 36 numbers in 3 dozens/columns, so each spin of the sequence you have to bet 36 - 12 = 24 numbers.

You seem to be doing something quite different, so I wonder why you wanted to know the odds of a D/C sequence repeating.

[Maui13]

Bayes,

Thanks for your effort in trying to help me, this is one of those "language" barrier things (from my side - apologies for that!  )

Hopefully I can redeem myself!

Ok, here I go......

I track 9 spins - I write them down in a horizontal line (Dozens are marked 1,2,3 and columns A,B,C) So that's 9 spins out of 36 gone!

So I have a sequence of dozens and columns as follow:

1 A 2 B 3 C 2 B 1 - this is my sequence I will bet against.
X X X X X X X X X -  I wait for 18 more spins to pass.
X X X X X X X X X
--------------------- - I will now start betting, that my sequence of 9 above, will not repeat itself. Starting betting from the start - I bet on dozen 2 & 3, if loss, next bet will be bet on B & C and so on and so forth.

That's why I asked, the odds of that last sequence of 9 repeating itself...so that I would know if it would be wise to play that sequence not repeating.

I hope this makes sense now   

Cheers
M

[Bayes]

Ok, in that case what I wrote previously still stands. 

[esoito]

Thanks for your effort in trying to help me, this is one of those "language" barrier things...

Ah yes. Being misunderstood is a common cross we all have to bear!

During my tertiary training I recall having to write an essay on this very relevant quotation:

Words are wise men’s counters, they do but reckon by them; but they are the money of fools
[Thomas Hobbes, (1651), Leviathan (1651) Pt. I, Ch. 4]

And -- oh boy -- didn't we have a lively debate afterwards. Some 40+ years later it's still a vivid memory.