"Progression-MM" is OUR ONLY POWER

[GLC]

Progression for two dozens - double up bet on lose, half your bet on win. It is basically Fibonacci on two dozens. It does not work, but it is SO close, if only there were not those holes...

Took approximately 2200 spins in this quick to actually lose (I would not play such big bets for real like those in that drawdown in the third image...).

This statement by Mr. Ore is exactly what I've been pondering the last couple of days.


Meaning, I've been rethinking my penchant for long, steep progressions.  Granted, the longer and steeper the progression, the greater chance that we may never go all the way to the end and thus always be a winner, but in reality, can most of us make a $1500 bet to keep from losing $6000 when we know that if we lose the $1500 bet, we will have to make a, for instance, $2500 next.


Me thinks there are few of us with nerves of steel to make those bets, therefore, long progressions are probably unrealistic.  I even find myself balking a little when making very large bets even just testing some system.  I think to myself, could I make this bet for real money?  I'd hate to find out right when I need to make the bet and then I realize that I don't have the guts.  Because by the time you need to make that bet you can bet that you're very deep in the hole.


G

[Steve]

See :.genuinewinner.com/truth.html which explains in plain language how roulette can and cannot be beaten.

Progression does not help. The only possible exceptions are:

1. If you already have an edge with accuracy of bet selection being better than random

2. Your progression allows you to sustain winnings, based on events that may never happen in your lifetime. But IF you lost, then you could lose very big.

3. Your progression somehow exploited streaks. But streaks are fickle. You would need to determine which streaks are more than just typical fluctuation. But this still comes back to increasing accuracy of predictions.

There are people making money with roulette cosnsistently. But I've never know one who uses progression to earn a living from it. The closest is someone that has had a good run of luck. But if you test their method more extensively, you see it has no merit.

So you can have 100 people applying the same system. Maybe 50 will be ahead $5000 each, and convinced their system works. The other 50 will be down $5100 each. The casino still wins. That is the house edge.

If you want a very simple progression strategy that does quite well, try this:

Start by noting your bankroll, and bet 1 chip on red. If you lose, increase bet by 1. When you win, decrease bet by 1. After each win, check your bankroll. If you are UP on the start's bankroll by X amount, reset back to 1 chip on red. X amount can be whatever you want, but you dont want it to be too small.

A more agressive approach is dont set X's value. Just keep going until you are happy.

[nitrix]

I also read a very good post on VLS, how you can turn 30$ into 30'000$ in 3 months.

Basically, you're aiming for 10% winnings of your total bankroll. From 30$, that is 3$. So devided into 3 units, it's 1$ chips. Simply win 3 units, everyone can have that at some point using any systems. Then quit for the day.

The next day's session, you'd have to do the same but with your new bankroll of 33$. 10% of 33 is 3.30$. So you'll be betting 1.10$ this time and also expect 3 wins.

The day after, you're at 36.30$. And so on and so on.

Notice how we didn't take any useless risks, or went into any crazy progressions or bet selections. The worse that could happen is run into a HUGE BADLUCK (you know the one that makes your system usually lose) and your losses would be of.... get ready.... a mere starting 30 bucks.

If you did it right, here's a table:
Month 1:  30$ -> 300$ (10% grow in 30 days)
Month 2: 300$ -> 3'000$ (...)
Month 3: 3'000$ -> 30'000$. (...)

You get the picture. At least, if I had a winning safe enough system, that's how I'd play.

[GLC]

Simply win 3 units, everyone can have that at some point using any systems. Then quit for the day.

I have seen a few people who thought they had a system that would win as little as 1 unit every day. As their bank got larger, the units got larger.


At some point it always failed.  None that I know of who started ever kept going.  They all hit the wall and gave up.  It's not as easy as it seems.


Your 30 unit stop loss keeps the amount of each loss down, but I'm afraid there will be quite a few of them.


I have often thought that we should try this approach with every system posted and see which one can go the longest.  We might learn a lot from such an exercise.


What say ye?

[nitrix]

I'm still debating whether it's a good idea or not. You sounds very rational and I don't want to jump into tiring testing if it might not get me anywhere. After 3 years of experimenting with randomness & RNGs (I have never entered a casino once in my life, mind me), I have still yet to see something promising.

Every time it just looks insanely "on to something" but when you really turn it upside down, it won't work as expected.

It's tiring. I was hoping this thread could lead me to something. I eliminated progressions and bet selections, but I cannot figure out what do we have left (appart from VB, dealer signatures, and other black magical things).

I'm pretty sure randomness obeys to some set of rules, we programmed into computers, there must be a way to reverse engineer that, I mean, geeez! I seen this thing on YouTube with Quantum physics, they have the same problems. Atoms have random states and they cannot predict with any accuracy at all what the next state might be.

It's a much bigger question that not only applies to Roulette. Whoever finds a solution to beat randomness, let me tell you the whole world will owe you something. That's a major discovery.

As for myself, I'm going to bed now, working on a method to make a profit and quit before its too late. Hit&run looks like the only solution from now on, but how can you make a living of Hit&run ?

I should really be sleeping...

[monaco]

Start by noting your bankroll, and bet 1 chip on red. If you lose, increase bet by 1. When you win, decrease bet by 1. After each win, check your bankroll. If you are UP on the start's bankroll by X amount, reset back to 1 chip on red. X amount can be whatever you want, but you don't want it to be too small.

I've tried this a little bit, aiming for 20-25u as a win, setting a stop-loss of 100. Doesn't half swing around a bit, there's highs & lows & not much time inbetween, but something I've still got in my mind .

Me thinks there are few of us with nerves of steel to make those bets, therefore, long progressions are probably unrealistic.  I even find myself balking a little when making very large bets even just testing some system.  I think to myself, could I make this bet for real money?  I'd hate to find out right when I need to make the bet and then I realize that I don't have the guts.  Because by the time you need to make that bet you can bet that you're very deep in the hole.


G

carrying on from above, a shorter variation on Steve's suggestion, is to play to a stop-loss of 15u, aim for +1u. Once you get to a drawdown of 15u, you're probably betting 5 or 6 units, it's about this time that things can spiral out of control quickly - the possible swing down can come very rapidly, losing just another 3 or 4 spins & you've more than doubled your drawdown & you also start getting into territory where it gets harder to get back to zero. 15u feels like a kind of tipping point to me - i never really feel in control once that point has been passed. Prevention is the best form of cure.

Try it betting for a single to form - i doubled a bankroll, then decided to ignore the stoploss & ended up where i began, about to summon up the energy to give it another go..

[ego]

I also read a very good post on VLS, how you can turn 30$ into 30'000$ in 3 months.

Basically, you're aiming for 10% winnings of your total bankroll. From 30$, that is 3$. So devided into 3 units, it's 1$ chips. Simply win 3 units, everyone can have that at some point using any systems. Then quit for the day.

The next day's session, you'd have to do the same but with your new bankroll of 33$. 10% of 33 is 3.30$. So you'll be betting 1.10$ this time and also expect 3 wins.

The day after, you're at 36.30$. And so on and so on.

Notice how we didn't take any useless risks, or went into any crazy progressions or bet selections. The worse that could happen is run into a HUGE BADLUCK (you know the one that makes your system usually lose) and your losses would be of.... get ready.... a mere starting 30 bucks.

If you did it right, here's a table:
Month 1:  30$ -> 300$ (10% grow in 30 days)
Month 2: 300$ -> 3'000$ (...)
Month 3: 3'000$ -> 30'000$. (...)

You get the picture. At least, if I had a winning safe enough system, that's how I'd play.

@ nitrix

I think you made a very good point - it is rare to see pepole write about Capitalization ...
Do you have a link to that topic at VLS ...

Cheers

[nitrix]

@ego, here it is: link:://vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=17382.0

I do not particularly agree with everything the member says, though he had really good points.

(Read from Mr Green's post #3).