The closest we can get in beating Roulette

[Bayes]

If you see in 200 spins 50 reds and 150 blacks (z-score -7, still possible, with simulations I have seen that z-score "has a limit" around -8.5)

hmm... I've done sims on this and I found the "limit" to be not less than 65 wins in 200 spins, a z-score of just over -5.0. This was over 100 million spins, and others found it to be the same. In any case, I agree the system won't win. You need to take into account multiple parameters in order to keep the variance down.

[mr.ore]

With reds the worst I have seen was 61 I think, but the worst z-score overall I have seen somewhere was around -8.5, so I assume that if it is possible for one chance, it is possible for another. Will run again...

[mr.ore]

62 hits/200 spins for red was worst case, zero included as no hit, tested over 10 million spins.

I do it that way that first I record 200 spins and then count hits, then remove first spin in record and add next spin result, so with every new spin I measure again, this way I have a better chance of finding really "bad" sequence.

[mr.ore]

Sessions from RNG HELL: play on red, lose like a hell 

[Jeromin]

I think it would be interesting to see a graph with the % of a EC, (e.g. Red) over 50,000 or more spins. I'd be curious to see what's the longest that a significant deviation ( 40/60) takes to reverse, and if it tends to reverse in a sharp way.

I say this because over the approx. 300 spins of a typical Wiesbaden session, no even chance ends up much lower than 43% (excluding the zero ). Granted, I've only checked some 70 sessions, but I'm not too worried about something that happens a few time every 10 million spins, though it is useful to know the absolute limits of any given bet.

I suspect the resulting graph will have more waves of predictable maximum length than a purely ahistorical view would suggest. With the occasional crazy outlier, of course.

Jeromin

[LuckoftheIrish]

[attachimg=1]

[LuckoftheIrish]

I made a graph with 32 000 decisions with the percentage of High hits, but the line was so close to 50%, that it seemed useless to post.

[Jeromin]

I made a graph with 32 000 decisions with the percentage of High hits, but the line was so close to 50%, that it seemed useless to post.

I'd love to see it, anyway. And if you could make the graph longer, so the oscillations within 100 spins can be seen, so much the better.

Jeromin

[mr.ore]

It might balance, but sometimes in infinity  . You can't base a system on even chances balancing out, or at least you have to consider zero in your system, or more generally for other chances fact that payout is worse than it should be to balance out. After seeing an extreme - reset your counters in your system, it won't balance anytime soon. It is a common mistake - after something hit less than expected, it is about to hit more to "make up" for it. No, it will at best start hitting as expected, but not more.

[mr.ore]

Don't be bhenchod and stop insults...

[Turner]

I like the street idea. Will test.  I prefer to look for streets to double in 12 rather than the sleepers, ala' law of the third. Run 12 numbers and 8 streets will hit on average.

[LuckoftheIrish]

hmm... I've done sims on this and I found the "limit" to be not less than 65 wins in 200 spins, a z-score of just over -5.0. This was over 100 million spins, and others found it to be the same. In any case, I agree the system won't win. You need to take into account multiple parameters in order to keep the variance down.

Well I have ran sims also.  I have tested only a few million RNG spins and found less than 65 wins in 200 decisions.  I think the worst was 61 wins in 200 decisions.   

[Robeenhuut]

I like the street idea. Will test.  I prefer to look for streets to double in 12 rather than the sleepers, ala' law of the third. Run 12 numbers and 8 streets will hit on average.

Hello

Just forget about it.  Similar system was posted by RE before and it failed.  Streets are just too unpredictable for this type of betting to be successful.

Regards

[bikemotorman]

I and a buddy have been working on something like this for almost a month.


But I wait at least 30 spins for a Street to be a no show, then I play with a gentle progression.


I have not lost a round yet, most people dont have the Patience to way 30 spins but I sure do lol.


Will I always win PROBABLY NOT.
Will I always lose PROBABLY NOT.
Is roulette a game you can tame PROBABLY NOT.
Hats off to my buddy in DC for the Idea.


                                                             Stuart Brandt    4347912826


Oh I dont ride the Bike Engine any more I got a Motorcycle.


Check out the attached photo.

[bikemotorman]

Still Winning with PROBABLY NOT.