Cristal ball

[ego]

 
Cristal ball

This is a crazy topic
Its about observations and know what to expect from the future outcomes.

I wrote about if before but getting to complex and now making a smooth and easy topic to grasp.
Its all about even money and the distribution of the law of series.

The expectation of the distribution

First we can look at what is the average distribution of events regarding the law of series.

[csv=]
16000, Singels,
8000, Series of two,
4000, Series of three,
2000, Series of four,
1000, Series of five,
500, Series of six,
250, Series of seven,
[/csv]

Now does numbers above is from a large sample of trails with very littel practical use or work as reference in the real world.
We will now take a look at some sample of 300 trails each witch is more realistic and practical.




Above is the distribution of repeats and no repeats using red and black.

The vacuum of underrepresented events

Now what happens if i only get singels and series of two and can measuring them being overrepresented with no other events showing.
Then i know after running milions of simulations that there will be series of three and four and five and so on - it allways is that way with every sample of 300 trails.

So what happens here if i get a window with only singels and series of two with my first 100 outcomes?
Well i know one thing for sure that i will get series of 34567 and so on for the next 200 trails that will show in the future.

In that sense i have a crystal ball as i know what to expect from the future outcomes and i know with 99.9% certainty that it will be that case every time.

Bet against or chasing a bet or just wait for it to unfold and embrace it

That involves three different ways to find a winning bet.
The last one is to most interesting one among does that i mention.

It is about to have a indication of your expectation of the future to show.
Then you have a tendency to capture does events that is underrepresented.

Playing model and the real thing

To make a working playing model out of this you have to know how to measuring the underrepresented events - find the imbalance - then just wait and wait for the future to hand it over for you.

Even if you know what the future will produce, so is it not the same thing as capture the future.
The slight andvantage is just that you play with high probability.

Like all other methods you have to develop a march based upon the indication that will show and try to embrace and capture the future.
Witch is a much better option then betting against or chasing for events witch have no significant probability to show.

[Bayes]

 

[Big EZ]

ego,

this is currently what I am working on.... thanks for posting this topic

[ego]

ego,

this is currently what I am working on.... thanks for posting this topic

BIG EZ nice to read that you into this topic - my opinion is that there is no other way and it is also based upon the best work that has been made regarding even money bets.
Might i ask how you think or what kind of idea you have behind this topic.

I share and show you what i know if you are interested.

Cheers

[Big EZ]

I have been basing a method around this and so far the test results are going good. I use a soft progression, and try and hit one of my choices in 5 spins...

What I do is try and put the probability on my side by educated guessing.  I analyze what has been going on over the past 5 spins and try and determine a series to play over the next 5 spins to try and catch a hit. Right now I am trying to finalize how to determine what the future will hold based on the last 5-10 spins...

I'm not sure if what I do will hold up in a long test run, as what I do as of now can't be coded into a program to test (there is still some intuition to it). Right now its all hand testing and as soon as I firm up some more rules with this method maybe we can run it over a large sample.

So far I have tested 4 sessions:
1:100 spins ending +8.5
    highest +20 @ spin 80
    ending +21.5  117 spins

2: 100 spins ending +14.5
    highest +15.5 @spin 99

3: 100 spins ending +14.5   
    highest +18 @spin 67

4: 100 spins ending +5.5
    highest +6.5 @spin 99


I test everything on the American 00 wheel because that is all I have access to. Once the 0/00 start showing up a fair amount if times it starts to eat at your profit..

[Chrisbis]

WOW  !!

Have U been reading my mail Big EZ? ?

What I do is try and put the probability on my side by educated guessing.  I analyze what has been going on over the past 5 spins and try and determine a series to play over the next 5 spins to try and catch a hit. Right now I am trying to finalize how to determine what the future will hold based on the last 5-10 spins...

This Methodology, is EXACTLY how I am playing my BisCending4 system,
over in the M.O.P.E.D. bike-shed.

You have it in a nutshell.

In my case, in a Nut Case!! LoL

Best of luck to U.... and the train driver once said to his passengers.... We're on the right Track!! LoL

[ego]

I have been basing a method around this and so far the test results are going good. I use a soft progression, and try and hit one of my choices in 5 spins...

What I do is try and put the probability on my side by educated guessing.  I analyze what has been going on over the past 5 spins and try and determine a series to play over the next 5 spins to try and catch a hit. Right now I am trying to finalize how to determine what the future will hold based on the last 5-10 spins...

I'm not sure if what I do will hold up in a long test run, as what I do as of now can't be coded into a program to test (there is still some intuition to it). Right now its all hand testing and as soon as I firm up some more rules with this method maybe we can run it over a large sample.

So far I have tested 4 sessions:
1:100 spins ending  8.5
    highest  20 @ spin 80
    ending  21.5  117 spins

2: 100 spins ending  14.5
    highest  15.5 @spin 99

3: 100 spins ending  14.5   
    highest  18 @spin 67

4: 100 spins ending  5.5
    highest  6.5 @spin 99


I test everything on the American 00 wheel because that is all I have access to. Once the 0/00 start showing up a fair amount if times it starts to eat at your profit..

Big EZ that sound great and i hope i can give you some inspiration regarding this topic.
I am open for discussion.

I skip the math and the probability for a moment and will just show you how i can pin point out larger series.
I believe is should not be done with out a strong imbalance - but some one could make a short cut to find larger series.

Assume you have a window of only singels and series of two - then we would expect series of three and four and so on.
But we would never know when a serie of two becomes three or a series of three become four.

The short cut is that if 3.00 or 3.5 STD is 14 or 16 singels with series of two with one serie of four or two series of three - then we could aim after 7 or 9 or more singels with series of two to capture larger series.

Singels has the value 1
Series of two has the value 0 and work as a lope hole
Series of three has the value 1 as opposite towards singels
Series of four has the value 2
Series of five has the value 3

This way you can see the strength behind the overrepresented and underrepresented events.
So if 14 singels and two series of three or one serie of four is 3.00 STD - then we know after 7 or more singels with series of two that larger series will appear to certain degree and some times still let the imbalance grow stronger.

Illustration from todays random org WWWLW


2
1
1
2
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
1 9 singels and 5 series of two
2
2
2 correction series of three
1
1
1 Correction series of three
1 WON Correction series of four

1
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
2
1
2
1
2 9 singels two seris of two
2
2 correction serie of three
1
1
1 correction serie of three
1 WON correction serie of four
1 correction serie of five

1
2
1
1
2
2
1
2
1
2
2
1
2
1
1 7 singels 4 series of two
2
2
2 correction serie of three
2 correction serie of four
2 WON correction serie of five


1
2
2
1
2
2
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
2
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
1 8 singels 7 series of two
2
2
2 Correction serie of three
2 Correction serie of four
1 LOSS
2
1
2
1
1
1 WON correction serie of three
1 four
1 five
1 six

[Big EZ]

this is what I am trying to work into my formula..... but I bet every spin.....so I am trying to figure out a way to try and pinpoint these events in a smaller window...

If its in a smaller window and its over represented, then we should play to follow what the wheel is doing, while still trying to hedge ourselves in case the event we are betting upon changes...

[Big EZ]

@ Chris....

I am spying on you, be careful 


Hopefully we are on the right track!!!

[catalyst]

WOW  !!


This Methodology, is EXACTLY how I am playing my BisCending4 system,
over in the M.O.P.E.D. bike-shed.

Best of luck to U.... and the train driver once said to his passengers.... We're on the right Track!! LoL

some peoples are on the right track but unwilling to share or accomodate others on their track!

[catalyst]

this is what I am trying to work into my formula..... but I bet every spin.....so I am trying to figure out a way to try and pinpoint these events in a smaller window...

Dear  Bigez
i have tested around 20 samples of 300 spins each which shows average ten events but difficult to kACH because of determining triggers. thiese are cycles of events at macro level. macro level consists of one big cycle--Macro cycle. some times this one macro cycle accomodate 2/3 micro cycle. betting every spin in a Macro cycle could be permissible in the form of FALAT Bating.
thakku
Katalyst
N.B.hope Kris help me out in spelling.

[birdhands]

Fascinating thread guys.  Thanks for your work.

[Chrisbis]

Dear  Bigez
i have tested around 20 samples of 300 spins each which shows average ten events but difficult to kACH because of determining triggers. thiese are cycles of events at macro level. macro level consists of one big cycle--Macro cycle. some times this one macro cycle accomodate 2/3 micro cycle. betting every spin in a Macro cycle could be permissible in the form of FALAT Bating.
thakku
Katalyst
N.B.hope Kris help me out in spelling.

I'll certainly give it a go :-"Cat-amongst-the-pigeons"

kACH = catch
thiese= these
FALAT= FLAT
Bating= Betting ... or .... he's gone fishing, and its = Baiting!
Katalyst= Catalyst..................really struggled with that one!
thakku= Its been a pleasure.
Kris= Charlie.


Cheers Buddie.

And I will share, if U ask.

[ego]

this is what I am trying to work into my formula..... but I bet every spin.....so I am trying to figure out a way to try and pinpoint these events in a smaller window...

If its in a smaller window and its over represented, then we should play to follow what the wheel is doing, while still trying to hedge ourselves in case the event we are betting upon changes...

Sound cool to aim for a smaller window - personaly i find it very difficult.
Here below is a real imbalance using 3.00 STD from random org.

20070103

  B
  B
R
R
  B
  B
  B
  B
R
  B
R
  B
R
R
  B
  B
R
R
  B
R
  B
R
  B
  B
R
R
  B
  B
R
  B
R
R
  B
  B
R
  B
  B
R
R
R
R
  B
R
  B
  B
R
  B
  B
R
R
  B
R
R -------------- 14/2 a statistical ecart of 3.00
R
R
R
R -------------- a serie of 6
  B
  B
  B ------------ a serie of 3
R
  B
R
  B
R
R
R
R
R
R -------------- a serie of 6


20070102

  B
  B
R
R
  B
R
R
  B
R
  B
R
  B
R
R
  B
R
R
  B
  B
R
  B
  B
R
R
R
R
R
R
  B
  B
R
R
  B
R
R
  B
R
  B
R
  B
R
R
  B
R
R
  B
  B
R
R
  B
R
  B
R
  B
  B
R
R
  B
  B
R
R ------------- 17/1 a statistical ecart above 3.00
R
R
R ------------- a serie of 5
  B
R
  B
  B
R
R
  B
R
R
R
R
R
R -------------- a serie of 6

Here below is the twist betting against 3.00 STD and that correction will come sooner.

2
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
2
2
2
2 WON
2

1
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
2
1
2
2
2
1
1
2
1
1
2
2
2
2 WON
2

1
2
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
2
1
2
1
1
1
2 Loss
2
1 Loss
2
2
2 Won
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

2
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
2 Loss
2
2 Won

1
2
1
2
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
2
1
2
1
1
1
1 WON

1
2
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
2
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
1 WON

1
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
2
2
2 WON

It is so beatiful - like a flower who unfold it self - here i some more sampels :-)

20080718

R
  B
  B
R
R
  B
  B
  B
R
  B
  B
R
R
  B
R
R
  B
  B
R
R
  B
  B
R
  B
  B
R
R
R
R
  B
  B
R
  B
R
  B
  B
R
R
  B
  B
R
  B
  B
R
R
  B
R
  B
  B ----------- 15/2 a statistical ecart above 3.00
  B ----------- a serie 3
R
  B
  B
  B
  B  ---------- a serie of 4
R
  B
R
  B
R
  B
R
R
  B
R
  B
R
  B
  B
  B
  B ----------- a serie of 4
R
  B
  B
R
R
R
R ------------- a serie of 4

20080719

R
R
  B
R
  B
  B
R
R
  B
R
R
  B
R
R
  B
R
  B
R
R
  B
R
  B
  B
R
R
R
  B
  B
R
R
  B
R
  B
  B
  B
  B
R
R
  B
R
R
  B
  B
R
R
  B
R
R
  B
R
R
  B
  B
R
  B
R
R  ------------- 16/2 a statistical ecart above 3.00
R
R
R
R
R -------------- a serie of 7
  B
  B
R
  B
  B
R
  B
R
  B
  B
R
R
  B
R
R
  B
  B
R
R
  B
R
R
R
R -------------- a serie of 4

20080717

  B
  B
R
R
  B
  B
R
  B
  B
R
  B
R
R
R
  B
R
  B
  B
R
  B
R
  B
R
R
  B
R
R
  B
  B
R
R
  B
R
  B
R
  B
R
R
  B
R
  B
R
R
  B
R
R
  B
R
  B
  B
R
  B
R
  B
R
R
R
  B
  B
R
  B
  B ----------- 14/2 a statistical ecart 3.00
  B
  B ----------- a serie 4
R
  B
  B
R
R
  B
  B
R
  B
R
R
  B
R
R
R
R
R  -------------- a serie 5

Here you have a chart for the STD.
At the top you have the underrepresented figure, event.
At the left side do you have the overrepresented figure, event.



This is how you caculate...

Now the first thing is to get the difference between this events, the absolute STD:
14 - 2 = 12

Now we want to get the statistical STD so we add
14 + 2 = 16

Now we take the sqr of 16 = 4

And finally we divide the absolute STD whit the sqr
12 sqr 4 = 3,00

The Statistical STD 3,00

[Chrisbis]

U missed something in your logs.

[reveal]
[attachimg=1]
[/reveal]

A series 6.

It came after two twin series of 2blacks.
Its a frequent occurrence.
A frequency dare I say.

Regards Chris