Prediction versus Similarities in Coincidence

[Gizmotron]

The mathboyz always make the case that we claim an ability to predict the future. It's called a straw man argument.  They would prefer to win an unrelated argument than ever deal with any possibility of being wrong.

Now ask them to explain the odds for a coincidence happening the same way in a few spins like 100 spins. They won't give you an answer. So it's pointless to argue with them. It shouldn't end discussions it should start them. But on almost every forum it ends discussion.

[Skakus]

Hello Mr Gizmotron, nice to see you back again.

Do you consider these coincidences equally recognizable on a real wheel and an rng?

Or do you consider the different unfolding of the number streams will noticeably effect their predictability?

[Gizmotron]

Skakus, I never use predictabilty. I use a process that peralels and currently  coincides with what I see that is happening. If that works then I have a working strategy.

Regarding rng I don't really know. The rng on my laptop works like a real wheel . The thing about casino rng's is that they can be manipulated. I don't trust them.

[iggiv]

Wow! who came back...welcome back Gizmo...that's been half a year?

[Skakus]

Skakus, I never use predictabilty. I use a process that peralels and currently  coincides with what I see that is happening. If that works then I have a working strategy.

Regarding rng I don't really know. The rng on my laptop works like a real wheel . The thing about casino rng's is that they can be manipulated. I don't trust them.

Thanks, I think I understand.

What level of intuition would you say is involved in this type of play, or is it all history repeating kind of stuff?

[Gizmotron]

" or is it all history repeating kind of stuff?"

Yes, it's history repeating itself kind of stuff - combined that is with thousands of hours of playing experience .

[Gizmotron]

Iggiv - thanks

[Blood Angel]

Hi Giz,
Im really glad to see you back.

[Gizmotron]

The true test of a trend player is knowing when to bet on a trend. The answer has always been right in front of you. If the bets win then you are in an effective win streak. If they don't then you are not. It's that simple.

You can know the state you are in while using your specific bet selection plan. Knowing is far better than wishing.

[A3on]

Welcome back Giz !
It's really nice to see you here again 


I'm always waiting to see if you "reveal" some more info about that trend tracking. Been testing and testing and unfortunatly, still can't find anything to exploit.
Seeing you back here, really brings my "testing mood" back 


Cheers,
Afonso

[Gizmotron]

Afonso, I have revealed new information. Knowing that your bet selection choices is working or not lets you know what to do next. It's  a very important thing to know.

[Gizmotron]

OK, so I'll try to recall what I wrote last night. Bayes had asked me if I was repeating what I had written about in years past regarding "the global effect." I created an example that showed how following a trend would lead to continuous lost bets. I shared what I did to deal with bet selections that don't work. Dealing with randomness is my big secret.

[amk]

Hello Gizmotron,

Glad to see you back. I read your threads from this past summer sometime ago. I was really impressed but moved on somehow. Look forward to journeying down this path again.

I still have to catchup to how you are playing etc but came across this interesting thread a while back. It deals with trends and randomness using 35 to 1 odds. What are your thoughts about it?

link:://:.rouletteforum.net/cgi-bin/forum/Blah.pl?m-1312779103/s-0/

I feel that there is something there.

[Gizmotron]

I cut my teeth on single number betting. That includes years research using computer simulation as well as real spins.  I've concluded that everything is similarities of each other. I have charts to try to find the hottest numbers. Reading randomness all comes out the same. It's just that the outside bets are easiest .

[Bayes]

Knowing that your bet selection choices is working or not lets you know what to do next. It's  a very important thing to know.

Suppose, for the sake of argument, that you're betting the ECs. You can keep track of your wins/losses and record them as a sequence. e.g.: W,L,L,W,L,W,W,L...

Now suppose you're betting some kind of 'trend' system which aims to keep you on the winning side. A simple bet selection is to pick the side which has hit 3 or more times in the last 5 spins (on a rolling basis). You can use your sequence of W/L in the same way. ie; if your W/L sequence has 3 or more wins in the last 5 bets, continue the bet selection as described, but if you have more losses than wins (3 or more L's in the last 5), then switch to betting the opposite, which in this case is betting the side which has hit twice or less in the last 5. This can work well at times, the trouble is there is always a nemesis pattern, in this case repeating triplets. If it isn't working, try adding another sequence which keeps track of your W/L sequence, so now you have 2 'levels'. If nothing else, it keeps you from getting fixated on believing that an event MUST occur in the next X spins. If you start believing that, you're really in trouble.

I like to play around with bet selections, but in my opinion money management is more important.