Gambler's Fallacy Folly

[MauiSunset]

First let's define Gambler's Fallacy:

The false notion that odds for something with a fixed probability increase/decrease depending on recent results.

Here is a typical screen of what I see all the time when gambling for practice or real:





Would you Bet Black because it's "overdue" or bet Red because there is a "trend" going on?

Basically anytime a Roulette system has you waiting for something to happen or not happen you are witnessing Gambler's Fallacy - that the odds will change somehow; the complete Roulette system is faulty - there is NO advantage to wait for something to happen or not happen since the output of a Roulette wheel/RNG is random and there is no "memory" in the wheel or computer program that will change the odds.

Anyway, I keep seeing Gambler's Fallacy in many systems here and on other websites and wanted to remind folks that this is utter nonsense.  There is no "Gambling God" that keeps track of your game and bends the odds to make the universe right again.

[Proofreaders2000]

That's ultimately why progressions don't work in theory.

[MauiSunset]

That's ultimately why progressions don't work in theory.

That brings up a great point:

"The odds for Roulette dictate that over the long run Roulette is a net loser for the gambler".

(Long run being hundreds/thousands of hours of playing Roulette)

So how do you make money playing Roulette if the odds are against you?

[MrJ]

This definition BS regarding gamblers fallacy always kills me. Let me ask this >> Lets say I put all the roulette numbers in a hat. I blindly pick any number, its the #20. I bet $5 on the #20 for one spin and then go home, I never play roulette again. Is that gamblers fallacy? If not, why?

Ken

[Kimo Li]

Gambler's Fallacy is a term coined by unsuccessful gamblers to validate their reasons for losing.  I say this because I came to realize why some people are winners while others are losers.

I cannot, and I say this with conviction, draw or paint an artistic picture if my life depended on it.  I am a stick person "artist". 

With that being said, I have an uncanny ability to understand the dynamics of number generation.   What is a reality to me is a fallacy to another.  My skill sets are different from that of a trained mathematician. The only difference between the mathematician and I is that I understand the mathematician.

Kimo Li

[MauiSunset]

This definition BS regarding gamblers fallacy always kills me. Let me ask this >> Lets say I put all the roulette numbers in a hat. I blindly pick any number, its the #20. I bet $5 on the #20 for one spin and then go home, I never play roulette again. Is that gamblers fallacy? If not, why?

Ken

There is no Gambler's Fallacy involved - you did not wait for something magical to happen and you picked a number (assuming you had 1-36 and 0 and 00 perhaps as numbers to pick) - your chance of winning was 1/37 or 1/38.  It's that simple.

Gambler's Fallacy is a term coined by unsuccessful gamblers to validate their reasons for losing.  I say this because I came to realize why some people are winners while others are losers.

I cannot, and I say this with conviction, draw or paint an artistic picture if my life depended on it.  I am a stick person "artist". 

With that being said, I have an uncanny ability to understand the dynamics of number generation.   What is a reality to me is a fallacy to another.  My skill sets are different from that of a trained mathematician. The only difference between the mathematician and I is that I understand the mathematician.

Kimo Li

If you have such a gift there is a game of chance called PowerBall, you should give it a try - I've played for 10+ years and I never seem to get the numbers right.....

[MrJ]

"Gambler's Fallacy is a term coined by unsuccessful gamblers to validate their reasons for losing" >>> 10000000% accurate.

Ken

[MauiSunset]

This is why I brought up the topic of Gambler's Fallacy - too many folks think it's not for real.


It is and if you believe the odds are getting better the more you lose then you fell for Gambler's Fallacy.

[warrior]

 

[MauiSunset]

Waiting for "triggers" is another form of Gambler's Fallacy.

That wheel or RNG has no idea what it spun last spin or the spin before that or last years spin at this time.

So if a Roulette system has you waiting for anything you can throw it in the trash can - it's full of Gambler's Fallacy and is a net loser.

[Gizmotron]

What a hoot! "The wheel has no memory." If you see 20 reds in a row should the question be "black is due or red is trending."

The question should be - no matter what the odds were, that I was lucky to be at the casino when a streak like this happened, the question should be "have I won enough." I would have already won 15 in a row. Those protecting themselves with catch phrases and other magical beliefs would get nothing and like the fact.

[MauiSunset]

What a hoot! "The wheel has no memory." If you see 20 reds in a row should the question be "black is due or red is trending."

The question should be - no matter what the odds were, that I was lucky to be at the casino when a streak like this happened, the question should be "have I won enough." I would have already won 15 in a row. Those protecting themselves with catch phrases and other magical beliefs would get nothing and like the fact.

I've sat through similar streaks in a B&M casino and watch folks look up and smile and then 50% of them bet Red and 50% bet Black; then many will bet on 0.

What's the correct answer?  It's 50/50 (actually 18/37 and 18/37 or 1/37 for a European wheel)....

[maestro]

what a usless tooopic

[MauiSunset]

what a usless tooopic

So you agree then that Gambler's Fallacy is real and that any Roulette system based on it is destined to lose?


I agree....

[maestro]

to lose no.......no