Gambler's Fallacy Folly

[GARNabby]

Gotta love this game!

Which game is that?

[Gizmotron]

MauiSunset, nice try, but you didn't answer my question. You just asked a bunch of questions yourself.

P.S. Looks like you are claiming that simple math is a predictor.

[MauiSunset]

MauiSunset, nice try, but you didn't answer my question. You just asked a bunch of questions yourself.

P.S. Looks like you are claiming that simple math is a predictor.

Your question can't be answered unless you be more specific.


I don't know what you are trying to accomplish by this game - you need to define your magical "quality trends".


Unless you don't know the answer and are looking for some guidance - then I'd be glad to help you....

[Gizmotron]

MS-" Your question can't be answered unless you be more specific."

OK. If 8 quality trends happen in the next 100 spins then how many quality trends happen in the next 100 spins.

Quality Trend: any trend that is 80% pure or better and that lasts about 15 spins.

[MauiSunset]

MS-" Your question can't be answered unless you be more specific."

OK. If 8 quality trends happen in the next 100 spins then how many quality trends happen in the next 100 spins.

Quality Trend: any trend that is 80% pure or better and that lasts about 15 spins.

OK, there is no generally accepted Roulette term "quality trend" - you defined it for your own needs.


I still have no idea what you mean by "Quality Trend: any trend that is 80% pure or better and that lasts about 15 spins."

Since this is your definition why on earth quiz me?  Just tell us what you are trying to get at.


Then I can respond to your definition.


Honestly, I don't know what game you're playing but it's just wasting everyone's time...........

[woods101]

Try this one:

The gamblers fallacy is not a fallacy, it's actually a truth. If you wait long enough at a roulette table for certain events to happen then eventually they will. The 'gamblers fallacy' of waiting for an event to happen is entirely valid. The particular event WILL actually happen.

As for any fallacy - the only fallacy is believing you may be able to cross your legs, put a cork in it, stay awake and have a BR in the millions to last long enough to profit from it.

In my mind this is the true fallacy so in answer to this topic, I would state that the gamblers fallacy is actually a truth. Wait for it. It will come. It's mathematically proven!


woods

[Gizmotron]

MS - " Honestly, I don't know what game you're playing but it's just wasting everyone's time......."

Just admit it. You can't answer my simple question. I knew you couldn't. I have decades more experience than you, both math and trend playing. I can't answer my own question. Nobody can. It's not a waste of everyone's time to see you patronize others.

[MauiSunset]

MS - " Honestly, I don't know what game you're playing but it's just wasting everyone's time......."

Just admit it. You can't answer my simple question. I knew you couldn't. I have decades more experience than you, both math and trend playing. I can't answer my own question. Nobody can. It's not a waste of everyone's time to see you patronize others.

I admit that I can't comment on your definition of "quality trend" - there is no such animal in reality.


But if it makes you feel superior to other gamblers I'm happy for you.


My experience is that folks who can't win at Roulette need to cook up all kinds of insane ideas that have no basis in reality.  There is no "quality trend" in this reality - maybe the one you live in has these occur all the time......

[Gizmotron]

MS - " I admit that I can't comment on your definition of "quality trend"- there is no such animal in reality."

You have established yourself officially that you are a mathboy. (mathboyz)

All mathboyz claim that trends don't exist.

[MauiSunset]

MS - " I admit that I can't comment on your definition of "quality trend"- there is no such animal in reality."

You have established yourself officially that you are a mathboy. (mathboyz)

All mathboyz claim that trends don't exist.

Gizmo you did this same thing 1 year ago - you propose and insane idea, belittle folks for not being as smart as you, then when asked to demonstrate your insane idea you give all kinds of excuses why you can't do it.


Nothing has changed in a year - if you have such a fantastic idea start your own topic or chat room and brag about how great you are.....

[Gizmotron]

MS, that's a great idea. I need to prove the existance of trends.

Basic accepted definition: " the general course or prevailing tendency."

[MauiSunset]

MS, that's a great idea. I need to prove the existance of trends.

Basic accepted definition: " the general course or prevailing tendency."

There are NO trends in random numbers - just higher and higher probabilities against the last color/odd/high/dozen/column/number showing up in the next spin to extend the "trend".

If you see trends in random numbers you are suffering from a form of Gambler's Fallacy - you believe in something that is not there....

[woods101]

There are NO trends in random numbers - just higher and higher probabilities against the last color/odd/high/dozen/column/number showing up in the next spin to extend the "trend".

....er...isn't this called gamblers fallacy.....?!?   

[MauiSunset]

....er...isn't this called gamblers fallacy.....?!?   

No, what I'm trying to say is that (for Black/Red) if 2 Reds are on the Marquee then the chance of a Red spinning is 18/37 and the odds of 3 in a row are 18/37*18/37*18/37=11.5% (European wheel).

If you see those 2 Reds it means nothing but afterwards and 3 Reds show up then the odds were just 11.5% of that happening.


The trick, of course, is to have a bet selection method that would have you bet Red in this instance...

[Gizmotron]

MS-" If you see those 2 Reds it means nothing but afterwards and 3 Reds show up then the odds were just 5.6% of that happening."

Gads - get your mathboyz face on. The odds are .4864 for red to occur. The house advantage for a 37 slot wheel is 0.027027027 .

P.S. there is an 11% chance of getting three reds in a sequence.