What is a trend?

[Gizmotron]

Even though many seem to say they completely understand what a trend is. With known advocates around the internets and in many published books we see a lot suggesting the use but there really seems to be very little explained regarding it.

This thread is dedicated to an investigation of the trend. In the past I identified the characteristics of a trend.

Topics:

When does a trend start?
When do you identify a  trend?
When does a trend end?
What is a dominance of series?
What is a sleeping group?
What is a pattern?
What is the global effect?
What is the effectiveness of a trend trend?

Please add to these questions and give an example if you can.

[Gizmotron]

When does a trend start?

Every trend has beginning, a middle, and an end. So before any trend is identified it has already had a few spins. The question continues to come up. To completely understand this there must be an understanding of context.

For instance identifying a sleeping dozen is different from identifying a streak of reds as an example of establishing context. Most people don't even know that dozens and columns sleep. They become inactive for several consecutive spins. I commonly see this happen. They sleep for 10 to 15 spins while the other two remain active.

[Gizmotron]

When do you identify a trend?

This is the topic of many a mathboyz. They all say you must lose the very first bet that is the basis of following any trend.

I wish I had a good rule to go on for you. Most of you are searching for that easy rule that will change your world forever. The trick is experience using first bet attempts. You must have confidence in your attempts at jumping on to a win streak as early as possible. That comes from experience. On 50 / 50 bets when you try that first bet mathematically you should lose half of all your attempts. You also get to go on a win streak that costs you nothing if it comes to pass.

[Skakus]

The 'perfect' trend starts before you get there and ends after you leave. I think this is what the hit and run advocates long for.

[Gizmotron]

When does a trend end?

If you read nothing else, remember this, the first loss is an indicator that the trend might have ended.

Consider the 80% streak or the pattern typed scenario where a loss is part of the flow of the trend.  In this case the loss is not an indicator that the trend has ended. But when a loss happens when a sleeper comes back to life or a streak of reds has its first black in a long while then that is an indicator to change tactics before the next bet.

[Gizmotron]

What is a dominance of series?

This one is simple... if you have the capacity to see complex things that are simple.

When a trend is a dominance it does not have to be perfect. It just needs to continue the same way for a while.  It can be mostly perfect, like 80% or 90%. Now if there is a continuation of a domination  of things never repeating then you have a streak of singles in series. A streak of doubles would be RRbbRRbb etc... An imperfect example might look like RRbbRRRRbbRRbb etc.. Repeats of triplets are very nice if you are riffing on a lead guitar. It's also very nice if you see a very long streak of them.

[Gizmotron]

What is a sleeping group?

This usually applies to the dozens or the columns. It would apply to methods of charting streets and double streets as well. There will be consecutive stretches of spins where one of the sections stop hitting for a while. When that happens you can take advantage. While the phenomenon occurs the temporary state of the statistics is radically alltered.It's very easy to see when these occurrences end. The sleeping section of the grouping wakes up.

[Gizmotron]

What is a pattern?

Let's take the dozens for an example. Say that the high dozen, 25-36, hits in the continuing pattern  ( hit, hit, and not hit ) . If you bet on it continuously you would end up with wwLwwLwwL etc... as the result.

Patterns happen all the time. If you want to be good at this you need to be prepared to take advantage of patterns that you have never seen before. That's not to say you should not be prepared to take advantage of patterns that you have seen before. You should do that too.

[Gizmotron]

What is the global effect?

Perhaps illustrating by example will communicate the best.

rrrrrBBBBBBrrrrrrrrBBBBBrrrrrrBBBBBBB

1122332233113322112233

111233312221113331222111333

rbbbrbbbrrrbrrrbrrrbbbrrr

[Gizmotron]

What is the effectiveness of a trend trend?

There are times when following the trend just fails to cooperate. The point is to get enough wins in order to have a winning session. The best way to track the effectiveness is with a "wL" chart. So along with your trend charts for bet selections you must stay aware of the effectiveness of using them.