Technical investment analysis methods applied to roulette

[Colbster]

Hoping to start giving details of winnings/sessions now that I am solidifying my play guidelines.

Session 1: 88 spins, 48 non-tracking spins, +20 units, largest drawdown 5 units
+0.227 units per total spin, +0.417 units per non-tracking spin

Total time: 12 minutes

BV NZ  - Session bankroll 40 units

[Colbster]

Session #2: 65 spins, 25 non-tracking spins, +20 units, largest drawdown 2 units
+0.308 units per total spin, +0.800 units per non-tracking spin

Total time: 7 minutes

BV NZ - Session bankroll 40 units

[Colbster]

Session #3: 117 spins, 77 non-tracking spins, +20 units, largest drawdown 22 units
+0.171 units per total spin, +0.260 units per non-tracking spin

Total time: 17 minutes

BV NZ - Session bankroll 40 units

Obviously, this was a little harder session that still ended in our favor.  As I was recovering from the drawdown, I was amazed at how this system called the end of the trend and kept me out of jumping into the next trend before it was time.  The accuracy was great after the rough start to the session.

[Colbster]

Spreadsheet with playing rules now in Full Systems here: link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=8531

[birdhands]

"First I tested your system using just a flat bet on the first spin after the moving averages cross.  I like to see what a flat bet does first.  My results was a -64 loss based on 50 sessions each of 100 spins.

I am not in favor of a negative progression so I tested to see how long were successive losses.
I tested this for 70 sessions of 100 spins each:"


Nickmsi, any chance you could rerun this data with a flat-bet variation?  Instead of just betting once after the crossover, how about flat-betting for as long as the trend lasts?  So basically every viable bet.  I think this could give us crucial information.

[Nickmsi]

 Birdhands . .  here's what I did . .  .

Any time the fast line (4-result average) was higher than the slow line (10-result average), I flat bet 1 unit bet on  High (19-36).   I kept betting 1 unit until the averages were the same,  or lower then no bet.


When the fast line was lower than the slow line, I flat bet 1 unit on Low (1-18).  I kept betting 1 unit until the averages were the same, or higher then no bet.


I did two test of 100 sessions of 100 spins each session(10,000 Spins Total)


Test #1:  11 Units Profits.  46 Losing Sessions and 54 Winning Sessions


Test #2:  -25 Units Loss:    50 Losing Sessions and 50 Winning Sessions


Hope this helps . . . Nick

[Colbster]

Birdhands sent me a PM yesterday concerning this idea I am working with, and it made me think about one aspect of this that I don't have a firm grasp on.  Playing how I laid this method out, if we have a 3 in the fast number and a 2 in the slow number, I have suggested playing high.  However, while we may be seeing more highs over the last four spins than over the past 10, that still averages only 3 out of 10.  This may indicate that our low streak is coming to an end, but 3 stills sees us losing 7 of 10.  I have been having success with this, but I wonder how much of my success has been the progression instead of my indicator.

Birdhands mentioned the MACD oscillator.  It is well beyond the scope of this forum to discuss something that technical in the investing world, but it is a strength of signal indicator.  A lot of traders use it in addition to whatever tool they happen to be using to generate their buy and sell signals.  I am going to look at adding a MACD to my averages method to see if it can give us a stronger signal than mere edges that might be working against the market (ie. buy signals when the market is just giving slightly less aggressive sell indications).

Other suggestions along these lines are always welcome.

[Nickmsi]

I have incorporated the MACD(4 Spin Average minus 10 Spin Average) indicator in my excel spreadsheet.

Please clarify:

When the MACD indicator shows a +1 or +2 what would you bet?

When the MACD indicator shows a -1 or -2 what would you bet?

Thanks

Nick

[Colbster]

What I played around with earlier today was taking the averages out to 2 decimal places and calculating the MACD with the decimals to give us more nuance in the movement, a la 0.45 to 0.85 to 1.10 instead of 0-1-1.  Frankly, I don't know what to do with it right now.  I have thought about taking a square of the MACD and multiplying it by some amount to determine betting stakes.  I have thought about only betting high when the 10-spin-count is over 5 or betting low only when when count is under 5.  There is something to be had here, but I'm at a loss where to go.  I'm sorry I don't have specific rules for +2 or -1 yet.  I'm consumed with the idea, so hopefully I can give better direction soon.

[birdhands]

I wonder if it would work to plug spin data into a program that would give us a graph.  Successful traders use dual momentum reversal strategies to decide when to consider a trade, but then use Elliot wave analysis and other objective strategies to determine whether or not to actually enter the trade.  Even just looking for a basic ABC wave pattern in our spin graph would possibly make the difference.  Maybe there's an equation that could do this.
Another consideration is that most successful traders lose the majority of their trades; but they lose a lot less than they win on their winning trades.  This points to the fact that exit strategies are pivotal in assuring profit.  I think most of this is done with fibonacci resistance levels.  Again, we would probably need software to make this possible.  Still, why mess with Forex when we can play BV NZ for pennies if we want.
I still think there's a lot of possibility here.


Sam

[Colbster]

I never thought that I would even be discussing the thought of Elliott Wave Analysis applied to roulette.  You have no idea how turned on that makes me to even type in the same sentence!     I'm thinking Forex for retirement and roulette for income.  Either way, I think that a lot of the tools available to me as a trader can be applied here as well in the interest of taming the beast.  I don't think that my averaging idea is the only place, either.  Early in this thread, point and figure charts were mentioned.  I am starting to do some research into this idea, and think that we might be able to use this for B/R tracking, or other EC bets.  Looking at the chart that I generated from my averages, I still see resistance/support lines that might be useful at some time.  I can see this branching off into an entirely separate school of roulette study that some people might naturally be drawn too, and hopefully bring their experience to, as well.

Money management will be inherently key here.  Bird, you know my position that the Eggleston Betting Method gives us a mathematical edge over roulette.  Identifying trends through charting doesn't really give us an edge from a math standpoint.  We will always have the same 50/50 spins, just with the hope that our timing can identify the tops and bottoms of moves.  Like I mentioned at the end of my Moving Averages thread over on the main board, I think that it may have been the progression that helped me early in my testing of this first method.  Testing lots of ideas and seeing what sticks will be the only way to find our winner, which I strongly believe we will eventually find.  I'm not at all bored or let down by our failures to this point, so I am looking forward to the days, weeks, months and years of honing our craft.

[Nickmsi]

I'm already testing all 3 EC at the same time with their own individual betting, hoping to smooth out the results.

The point of all this is to identify a trend. Whether we use the MACD as the indicator or the moving averages or something else, we need to keep trying.

Currently I am testing the simplest of all trend indicators. KISS, Keep It Simple Stupid, is still applicable.

If a 15 Spin average goes from 6 - 5 - 4 then it is in a downward trend.  It if goes from 9 - 10 - 11 then it is in an upward trend.  All 3 EC at same time.

Will keep you posted.

Nick

[Bayes]

It might be worth trying an exponential moving average, which gives more weight to recent data points, or maybe a combination of SMA and EMA -

link:://:.investopedia.com/video/play/SMA-versus-EMA#axzz1kBEgfH1s

Regarding TA applied to roulette, it's certainly worth investigating, but just a cautionary note: TA may well work in trading precisely to the extent that traders use it; patterns, movements and signals tend to repeat in the expected way because they are identified as being significant by large numbers of traders, who then act on them (a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy). Obviously this doesn't apply in roulette, because outcomes are totally independent of the decisions that players make.

However, It's not my intention to pour cold water on the idea, and if you're going to use and play around with systems, why not make use of the sophisticated techniques which traders use to determine trends, rather than reinventing the wheel? A lot of roulette systems are just crude approximations of TA charts and signals. As a way of presenting and summarizing data in a visual way, TA has a lot to recommend it.

[Bayes]

the Eggleston Betting Method gives us a mathematical edge over roulette.

Colbster, so why aren't you using it? Is it posted on this forum?, I did a search but it didn't turn up anything, except this post.

[flukey luke]

Hello Bayes,

It is over on the VLS roulette forum.

Type in 'The eggleston betting system'

cheers.