Technical investment analysis methods applied to roulette

[Colbster]

I was thinking about the random nature of roulette and the "random walk" theory of investing.  Even if there is random price movement in the markets, we can still apply technical trading tools to exploit the random movements.  I began toying around with some of the same tools I use to trade Forex to see if they apply to roulette.

My methodology was as follows (RNG - NZ BV):

1. I created an Excel spreadsheet where I would enter spins as they came up, left to right, on row 1.

2. I entered a formula to determine if each spin was low or high in row 2:    =if(A1<19, "L", "H").  I copied this formula several hundred cells to the right down row 2.

3. Beginning at J3, I started counting how many high spins we had in the previous 10 spins using formula       =countif(A1:J1,"H").  This formula I copied as far as I had copied the formula from step 2.

4.  Beginning at S4, I took the average number of high spins from the previous 4 results, using formula:     =average(P4:S4).  I copied this formula as far down row 4 as I had the other formulas.

5.  Beginning at S5, I took the average number of high spins from the previous 10 results, using formula:   =average(J5:S5).  I copied this formula as far down row 5 as I had the other formulas.

Here is where the investing tools came in.  I like to use the cross-over of moving averages to give me market direction.  The 4-result average  is the same as the fast moving average and the 10-result average is the same as the slow moving average I use to time investments.

Any time my fast line (4-result average) was higher than my slow line (10-result average), I anticipated an upward move in the averages, and bet on High (19-36).  When the fast line was lower than the slow line, I anticipated a downward move in the averages, and bet on Low (1-18).  When the numbers were the same, I considered that a choppy market and stayed out altogether.  My spreadsheet is set to zero decimal places.  I don't see any real benefit to playing farther out than whole numbers.

I used a Grand Martingale progression, as I had not seen many 4-in-a-row losses.  I played 1,3,7,15, using the indicator I just explained in the previous paragraph.  While I did experience some occasional bankroll losses of 26 units, I easily surpassed this in gains in every session that I have played (admittedly by hand, as I haven't taken the time to learn to code yet).  Obviously, this could be adjusted to a regular Marti, or any other progression that isn't too incredibly aggressive.

I was quickly impressed at how this gained hold of genuine streaks quickly and kept me out of a lot of junk.  True chops won't hurt you here, as you would win every other bet for a total of +2 using the grand Marti.  What would hurt is a strong up trend, immediately followed by a strong down trend, immediately followed again by a strong uptrend (or vice versa).   Gradual trends are the friend of this method.

Also, this system seems to absolutely love the Labby progression [1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1] (Thanks GLC - I owe you one for introducing me to that!!!)

Would love some feedback with people familiar with this type of investment analysis especially.  Do I need to change my time periods (4- or 10- numbers too fast or too slow?).

Currently playing with BR of 26 (1,3,7,15).  Stop playing after full loss, restart tracking for next session.  You will have to track the first 19 spins without a bet.  Also, there are periods, though not long, where you are watching and not actively betting.  Should be under 10 spins at a time without betting, although that may have exceptions.  Since Betvoyager doesn't allow for free spins anymore, I play 2 units on Doz 1, 2 units on Doz 2, 1 unit on 25-30, 1 unit on 31-36.  That is a true free spin that will never cost or gain you anything while you are tracking between bets.  I have this arrangement saved as a personal bet for quick play.

[Bayes]

Hi Colbster,

Nice topic, I'm surprised more people don't look into this, because there are a lot of sophisticated tools available in TA for those who like to play trends. Some might say it's nonsense to use moving averages etc on roulette because the game is random, but no more so than price movements in the markets.

Personally I like point 'n' figure charts, they give you a nice visual overview of both 'global' and 'local' trends.

There's some free software - Forex Strategy Builder which might be fun to play around with. Although the data in the text files are price movements, you could easily replace it with some roulette related data. As long as the format is correct in the file, the program won't know the difference, then you can use all the built in tools to analyse roulette. 

[Colbster]

Bayes,

Point and figure charts could be brilliant for this, just substituting one side of an EC for an uptick and the other for the downtick.  Wow - not my area of expertise (I am a candlesticks guy myself, which work great with MA and other TA indicators), but I may have to give it some consideration.

When I first started playing around with this idea, I put a very basic charting mechanism into my spreadsheet that showed the ups and downs of the rolling counts.  I was struck immediately by the similarity to stock charts.  Not only do we have the usual undulations of the price/count, we also experience very clear resistance/support levels that respond to all the usual TA methods.  Additionally, we have the benefit of a fixed channel to work within (0 to 10 Highs (or reds or evens) possible in 10 spins.  We don't have to worry about setting a stop limit or having prices gap beyond our expectations.  If anything, this is less random than the stock market.  Frankly, I cannot imagine anything more random than human nature, driven by fear and/or greed, seasoned with mob hysteria dynamics and directed by commentators that have their own agendas.  This seems safe compared to equities, and most see that as semi-legitimate.

[amk]

Hello Colbster,

This looks really good. Thank you for taking the time to explain it. I think you should get a lot of help here soon.

What are your stats at the moment? You said you lost your BR several times but this was easily regained. How many spins/sessions have you tested etc.?

I still have to fully grasp everything but it seems to me that there will not be too many greater fluctuations than what you have seen. On the stockmarket there will be far greater fluctuations. Roulette is in this sense "stable".

[GARNabby]

As with the very-slow progressive betting, the straight-up random-walk stuff alone will never beat even a vig of 0.1%.

I've done a lot of that sort of math.  Not interested in posting the hints here as the mention of anything serious quickly finds its way to the trash-bin, on this message-board.

Come on, were the real markets random, on a "random walk"... no one would  be playing those, which would have collapsed more than a few times since the big one.

[amk]

Hello GARNabby,

Please share with us. Your insights would help greatly. I am sure they will not enter the trash bin.

There are many great threads and posts. Look at Gizmotron for example. There should be a lot more interest in his ways but it seems that people have a preferred approach to the game and if it does not meet there vision will leave it alone.

Only by contributing will we all get somewhere......

[Colbster]

@AMK, moving to the Labouchere was perfect. I'm playing with a line of 10 1s and a BR of 40. Highest bet yet was 8, win every time since changing progressions. I am up to 20 sessions with the new progression, averaging 30 spins after the 20 tracking spins. I haven't even sweated yet with this method. This seems super-solid

[Gizmotron]

" There are manygreatthreadsand posts. LookatGizmotronfor example. There should be a lot more interest in his ways but it seems that people have a preferredapproach to the game and if it does not meet there vision will leave it alone."

Thanks. I happen to agree with the common sense offered by John Patrick.

He's an advocate of trends but you won't find much information from him explaining it. That's what I'm trying to do now.

[Colbster]

Until just recently, I did not pay enough attention to Giz.  In the past few weeks, I have been noticing some strong underlying thoughts, especially concerning trends.  Giz asked how we know when a trend goes into effect and when one ends in one of his other posts.  I think that this is a perfect means of quantifying trend beginnings and endings.  A lot of my thought process for this idea came from Giz.  This gives us a concrete (objective vs. subjective) entry and exit, rather than trying to "get a feel" for the game.

[Colbster]

@GARNabby

I am undecided on the randomness of the markets.  Some claim that roulette isn't even all that random, although please don't count my in that group.  Regardless, there are great tools that can be applied to investments that can be very profitable, just by looking at the charts.  I initially started this concept for myself a few weeks ago by trying to use traditional charting methods (specifically trend lines and support/resistance lines) to lock roulette into some sense of order.  My moving averages method is the end result, and it looks as solid as any other method I have ever created or tested.  In the near future, I will be moving this from the notepad area to full systems with a copy of my personal spreadsheet so I don't have to explain the formulas to people who don't know Excel too well.  Right now, I am extremely excited by how accurately this grabs trends and avoids a bunch of the junk chops in the middle.

[Gizmotron]

Colbster - " This gives us a concrete (objective vs. subjective) entry and exit, rather than trying to "get a feel" for the game."

Two very powerful things that you are doing. You use charts to see the trends easily and you deliberately avoid the chop.  That makes you a proactive and pragmatic expert. Randomness requires these techniques  in order to take advantage of it.

[Nickmsi]

 Colbster, great post using moving averages to determine possible trends.


Both Gizmotron in his latest post on trends and XXVV on his moving averages are pointing the way to possible success at this game.


I created an Excel Spreadsheet per your specs and added my testing data as well, many thanks to Reddwarf, Madmax and Superman for their assistance in creating and testing in Excel.


First I tested your system using just a flat bet on the first spin after the moving averages cross.  I like to see what a flat bet does first.  My results was a -64 loss based on 50 sessions each of 100 spins.


I am not in favor of a negative progression so I tested to see how long were successive losses.
I tested this for 70 sessions of 100 spins each:


Under 3 in a row losses:  25
4 in a row losses     20
5 in a row losses      9
6 in a row losses          12
7 in a row losses       0
8 in a row losses       1
9 in a row losses       3


Nothing much to get excited about, but this is the first try.


What appears to be more favorable, would be to try using the 10 spin average only.  When the 10 spin average goes from 4 to 3 bet on LOW and when it goes from 6 to 7 bet on HIGH. Or any other combination that look favorable.


I will test out this tweak and see what happens.


Again, thanks for the post.  It is most enlightening.

[Colbster]

Make sure that you are stopping your betting when the trend ends.  If you had a 7 on the 4-spin and a 6 on the 10-spin, indicating High, you only bet until the 4-spin drops down to 6.  If that happens, you stop betting immediately and wait for the next trend to emerge.  I wasn't sure if that was how you are playing.

I did just have a loss of a 40-unit bankroll.  Still up around 200 total using the Labouchere on BV NZ.  Despite the inevitable loss, I love this method!

[Colbster]

And just as quickly, I have recovered the entire session BR that I lost.  I am playing the 10x1 Labouchere to completion, 4 in a row to comprise a session.  I just won 4 straight, with 3 of them exhibiting extremely strong trends in both directions.  Will continue to test this and keep you all in the loop.  Looking great so far!

[Nickmsi]

Thanks for the update on stopping the betting when the trend ends, I will re-do my successive loss figures.

In the meantime, I did a quick test of betting Low when the 10 spin ave went from 4 to 3 and betting High when it went from 6 to 7.

27 Sessions of 100 spins each made a flat bet profit of 15.  However, only 2.67 bets per 100 spins.

Nick