Technical investment analysis methods applied to roulette

[Bayes]

Thanks John. 

[Colbster]

It can also be found on this forum here: link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=3608.0

Bayes, as a math guy, I am interested to hear your input.  Pay more attention to the mathematical element at the beginning of the post and less on the bet selection that it moved to later.  I introduced a different betting method later, Eggleston Betting Method 2.0, also available on this forum.  The problem with both is that, like the Parrando Paradox that is getting so much attention currently, finding a way to apply this bet correctly seems to be undoing it.

I never got into roulette to make money.  I dream numbers at night, and doing roulette spins in my mind is helpful in falling asleep.  I did make some decent money playing this method until an errant click blew my entire bankroll.  With no money to play, and confident that I had a solid solution, I got bored by playing my method.  I still play around with it sometimes, but I don't get the thrill I do from trying new angles that I think up or read about here.  This is more a mental exercise for me, although I don't rule out making a little money if I ever find something more "holy grail" caliber. 

I think that there is a method, or methods, out there that can beat roulette.  I don't buy the conventional wisdom that it can't be beat.  The only time the HA is absolute is when our bet is static.  If you put 1 unit on 3rd dozen and hit auto spin for 1000 spins, you deserve to lose your money.

[Colbster]

Regarding the earlier post about how charting may not be applicable to roulette the same way it is to investing because people use charting in investing and it becomes a self-fulfilling principal, I would state that charting was invented after investing and had merit before investors were using it.  I understand your thought, but not all investors use the same charting, or even use the same charts in the same way to the same conclusion.  Different time frames and different conclusions stop charts from really driving the markets in a specific manner.

That doesn't mean that they are applicable to roulette, but I don't think it can be ruled out just yet.

[Colbster]

I just did 100 spins to test how the charting would actually be, and I was struck by the quality of the trends.  Look at the attached and tell me that we can't use investment strategies here! 

[kelly]

The only problem being: Is the moving average giving an advantage in trading ?  The tests i have seen isn`t giving any.


Anyway, if you wanna extend the idea, how about making 2 charts with different timeframes ?  Like you would do it in real trading. To save a long explanation read here about multiple timeframes:


link:://storage.saxosoft.net/sg/pdf/fx/2-4-multiple-time-frames.pdf

[Colbster]

Here is an example of Bollinger Bands applied to the same data as the previous chart

[kelly]

Personally i think Bollinger bands and the MA is lagging too much. How about inserting an Oscillator like the  Slow Stochastich (or RSI) and a Parabolich Sar ? Difffycult ? 


When the stochastich moves above 80,  you exit your position when the Sar is trigged.  Otherwise the Sar is ignored.  When the Sar is trigged, you bet opposit  until you are either stopped out or the stochastich goes below 20 and the Sar is trigging you to reverse  your betting.

[Colbster]

Kelly,
You are my hero!!  What a great bit of fun this thread is turning into for me.  I agree that the indicators are lagging behind the movements.  I have never figured this stuff out on my own - all the trading software just takes prices and generates these charts for me.  I will see if I can find a formula for a stochastic that I can incorporate into Excel.  I love the idea of overbought and oversold as betting indicators.  I am also a big fan of the CCI (Channel Commodity Indicator for people not familiar with it) as a leading indicator.  I will hunt around and see what I can find.  Thanks for the ideas!

[Colbster]

Here is the slow stochastic.  It was actually pretty easy to generate.

[Colbster]

When it broke below 20, I went H until a down-tick in the Stochastic.  When it was over 80, I went L until an up-tick.  With this bet selection, I won 29 and lost 23, a win rate of 55.77% and a z-score of just ever so slightly over 1.

[kelly]

Personally i always use the parabolich sar combined with the slow stochastich because a stock can stay overbought/sold for a pretty long time  where the parabolich sar executes the reversing only when the trend is actually changing. The stochastich gives you an alert signal that a trend might be reaching an end, and the sar gives you the actual "go ahead".


Yeah, CCI i use as one of the components for daytrading.  But also, multiple timeframes and the sar is helping tools.


Here is a trade setup for Vestas
Stoch.  indicate overbought/short and the parabolich sar gave a short signal at the same time.







This exact trade was shorted at 112 and closed in 91.

[Nickmsi]

 Yikes . . . you guys making my head spin with all these MACD, Stochastich and Bollinger Bands.


I need a “Band” Aid for my brain.


Your Chart of Roulette spins shows a fluctuating graph with high and low points which is exactly what we want.  From a high point to a low point is a downward trend and from a low point to a high point is an upward trend.


When I used to trade stocks, I would find a solid company with an upward trend and purchase it with a 10% sell order.  If the stock went up 10%, it was sold and I took a profit.  The same can be said for a downward trend and sell short.


Gizmotron hit it on the head when he said you have a 50/50 chance of getting on a trend at anytime. However, we have some indicators to show a trend may be starting or stopping and we can increase our chances of jumping on or off at a good time.


When you see your Chart of Roulette trend going down,  bet it for 1 or 2 spins and then stop and wait for another trend.


I have tested this method for 2 test of 10,000 spins each(100 sessions of 100 spins each).  I used all 3 EC simultaneously.  I used a 15 spin average.


If the EC showed a downward trend by going from 6-5-4 or lower or if it showed an upward trend by going from 10-11-12 or higher I would bet.


Both sessions showed a flat bet profit of 10 and 50 units respectively.  Attached is a chart showing the 50 unit profit.


When we break down the 50 unit profit session we get:


1^st Spin Win-----344
2^nd Spin Win-----164
3^rd Spin Win-----73
4^th Spin Win-----30
5^th Spin Win-----12
6^th Spin Win-----7
7^th & higher-----8


As you can see, you can easily play a 2 or 3 step martingale progressions to double or triple your wins.


The downside is that you only get 638 opportunities to bet per 10,000 spins.  You would need a tracker and patience and/or a bot.  This will probably pass the Van Keelen test if I carried out the placed bets to 1000.


And the fun continues . . .good grief Reddwarf, you've created a testing monster in me (just joking)

[Colbster]

Hand testing it, so it is slow going, but I am having remarkable results using MACD and the slow stochastic together.  Any time the stochastic is overbought/oversold, or within 1 spin of it leaving that condition, and the MACD is at 0 or favorable in the direction to correct the stochastic extreme, I am betting flat until the stochastic reaches/crosses 50%.  There are numerous betting opportunities in a session so far, but this is a fair amount of tracking before the conditions concur.  Several stretches of 4 straight wins and no real bad streaks. 

[GARNabby]

Have also a few investment analysts taken up roulette?






aka, the Streak Fighter

[Bayes]

Regarding the earlier post about how charting may not be applicable to roulette the same way it is to investing because people use charting in investing and it becomes a self-fulfilling principal, I would state that charting was invented after investing and had merit before investors were using it.  I understand your thought, but not all investors use the same charting, or even use the same charts in the same way to the same conclusion.  Different time frames and different conclusions stop charts from really driving the markets in a specific manner.

That doesn't mean that they are applicable to roulette, but I don't think it can be ruled out just yet.

Good point about charting having merit before investors were using it (the point and figure method is a good example - it's the oldest form of TA and was in use when there where very few traders). And in any case, there are different explanations as to why TA seems to work (although there's no conclusive evidence for that either - it's an area of controversy). Some say it's to do with the psychology of traders, other's say it's just a way of recording supply and demand.

I'm glad others can see some potential here, it's a vast field and deserves a forum to itself. 

I'll take a look at the Eggleston method, thanks for the link.