Individual Permanence and the Myth of Hit and Run

[Rolletti]

I would like to discuss a thing that was in my mind for many years after I read first time about it in a German roulette forum. -
The individual Permanence.

The basic idea is that Random is not a thing that is independent from a person. Or more philosophically random materializes (becomes truth) only when perceived.

That means that Anyone can, in our case play roulette, at any time in any place at any table. Stop at one table continoue at an other table or at an other time. And the results will be the same for continous play and the socalled Hit and Run style.

For every person the result will be the same in the LONG RUN. And this means really many games 50.000 +

It is not possible to look at random as and person-independent thing. Like I read at this forum statments like:" Losses will occure, but with Hit and Run you will not be there to experience them".

As I'm a great fan of the work of JohnLegend I had to test and look for evidence.

So I got some 65.000 real wheel spins from Homborg casino and did some coding in visual basic in EXCEL so see how it works out in continous play and HnR by skipping about 50 spins after a game to simulate HnR.

The result: There was no difference. Random is Random, this or that way and sticks to the numbers (probability) in the long run.

That was tested for the 2 most promising Methods on this forum:
Pattern Breaker and Code 4 DC

So what ever divagation is observed or reported is normal based on the probaility for the methods. Just for example: I saw winning streaks from 2 games up to 500 games with Code 4 that has a 1/80 math strike rate. But at the end every game averaged and ate winnings.

Random is not blind for our games and spins.

So what to do?

The only chance is the bet size / staking. Because random is blind for the amount we bet.

So my very basic idea is to note down the personal Win / Lose sequence in order to deduce according to the probability of the game we play when to increase or decrease the stake level we play.

But I don't have a clue how to do that. This is where your brain power is needed.
What do you think?

cheers

[amk]

Hello Rolletti,

I think the thing we have to remember is that software testing by definition, is different from actual play. From your example one can only really say if HIT AND RUN works after 50,000/65,000 LIVE spins. I estimate that JohnLegend has played this many spins so his results would reflect if HIT AND RUN is effective.

[GARNabby]

The basic idea is that Random is not a thing that is independent from a person. Or more philosophically random materializes (becomes truth) only when perceived.

Einstein "wrestled" with, and lost, his own argument, loosely that, "A rat can not bring about the determination of a (quantum-mechanical) probability-based event simply by its looking to those outcomes."  Meaning that a computer, along with its external apparatus, can as-well observe such outcomes... to the extent in which involvement is possible.

[Rolletti]

Thanks for your posts.

Yes you are right. JL has about 45.000 spins as I just calculated approximate with 2000 games played on average duration 45 spins and 2 games H/L O/E simultaneously.

To may judgment he is still on the positive "lucky" side of naturally occurring swings. But we will see at his next update, how it develops.

As I said I'm a fan of JL so I'm trying to confirm his theory of HnR for big numbers. So don't misunderstand my efforts.

I will put in more time and efforts to simulate his play.

amk would you agree that it is proper to take a real wheel permanence from Homborg Casino Table, randomly find a entry point, simulate the game, randomly pause and start over for a later entry spin again. 5 times per 1-day permanence???

This it not a pure computer testing. It requires some manual manipulation of the data, at least with my current coding skills.

So give me some days, I will try for 100.000 spins if you agree with the procedure to be realistic in order to test HnR.

cheers

[amk]

Hello Rolletti,

It might be best to contact JohnLegend and see what he thinks. If you haven't read JL's last few posts you should, gives good insight into his HIT AND RUN approach. Have you looked at my latest posts on OPPOSITE? There are about 360 four wide dozen patterns PER 24 HOURS on a roulette wheel, only about 3 to 6 of these patterns will make us lose. If we only play five to ten times per day we have a good chance of avoiding these patterns for a very longtime.

[Bayes]

Einstein "wrestled" with, and lost, his own argument, loosely that, "A rat can not bring about the determination of a (quantum-mechanical) probability-based event simply by its looking to those outcomes."  Meaning that a computer, along with its external apparatus, can as-well observe such outcomes... to the extent in which involvement is possible.

Randomness is just an expression of our ignorance, there is nothing inherently random in any event or object, the concept itself is incoherent. See

link:://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0611245

[Bayes]

amk would you agree that it is proper to take a real wheel permanence from Homborg Casino Table, randomly find a entry point, simulate the game, randomly pause and start over for a later entry spin again. 5 times per 1-day permanence???

Hi Rolletti,

I already did that with actual spins, the result showed that hit & run gave no advantage whatsoever. And it seems that no-one else has been able to replicate JL's results. Draw your own conclusions.

[GARNabby]

Randomness is just an expression of our ignorance, there is nothing inherently random in any event or object, the concept itself is incoherent. See

link:://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0611245

An excerpt, from the above excerpt, "Quantum mechanics generally does not permit all the information to be obtained, even in principle, just as in relativity information from outside the past light cone cannot be obtained. But probabilities do not imply indeterminism. Instead, quantum mechanics is more deterministic than classical mechanics."

Randomness isn't quite the same as indeterminism. Roughly, the latter is the state of several, or infinite, as-possible recourses; and the former as the sequential decimals of an irrational number, e.g., however deterministic such a number may be in concept.

Asfaras even the absolute being "an expression of our ignorance", blah, blah, i think we really ought to wait a bit more on that before arguing upon which of the others is more-actually deterministic.

[Rolletti]

Hi,

I have simulated  Pattern breaker for 150.000 real wheel spins. 1 year of Homborg Casino.

HnR simulation gave me about 5000 games.
Strikerate 1:8
with zero cover still profitable thanks to low double loss rate.

will the next days compare with continous play.

cheers

[Gizmotron]

Sometimes to understand something you need to see it in simplest of terms. A Roulette wheel is nothing more than  a mechanical devise that produces independent results. At a casino it also produces sequences over time.

If you deploy the same bet selection proceess against a sequence of spins you will get a stream or flow of typical results that have only a few characteristics that are in common. These are chaotic, win streak, and losing streak.

Hit and run has little effect with these types of characteristics. Bet high or bet low is the more effective method.

[Bayes]

Randomness isn't quite the same as indeterminism. Roughly, the latter is the state of several, or infinite, as-possible recourses; and the former as the sequential decimals of an irrational number, e.g., however deterministic such a number may be in concept.

Asfaras even the absolute being "an expression of our ignorance", blah, blah, i think we really ought to wait a bit more on that before arguing upon which of the others is more-actually deterministic.

It's going off-topic, and this is a philosophical can of worms, but what is 'random' to one person may not be to another - randomness is a matter of information.

If something is 'random' to everyone, which is ONE interpretation of Quantum theory, does that mean that it's indeterminate (in the sense of not CAPABLE of being determined)? Isn't it more sensible to admit that no-one knows (yet) what the causes are?

You'd think so, but according to the Copenhagen interpretation, randomness is an inherent property of particles - so it's a waste of time looking for 'causes'. That's a poor way of doing science and has more to do with the politics and philosophy of 1920s Germany.

[maestro]

if random is different to different people and we call roulette random and since every one loses on roulette so i guess either roulette is not random or random acts the same for everyone...

[Bayes]

Hi maestro,

Well, I suppose if we all really believed that random acts the same for everyone then no-one would be here. 

Theoretically, if you were able to accurately measure all the variables in roulette, then you would be able to predict the next spin because the movement of the ball follows Newton's laws, which are deterministic. The problem is the sensitivity to initial conditions (chaos).

My point was that if you have the knowledge, then roulette is no longer random, so "random" can't be a property of the game itself. Random begs the question - to whom is it random?  It really makes no sense to talk about "reading randomness", because if randomness is read, then random no longer exists, it's been replaced by knowledge.

[kelly]

When it comes to reading random im setting up the scam stove, I realized that the volume dial had wrenched its colors off of the bloom- thereby flanking the impending bell, and setting the whole engine into fits of spurious contention. This coming after words and bleepings heard in the surrounding shops had already set sail!


Got it ?


Right, go read some real random in the casino and make some money.

[vile]

When it comes to reading random I'm setting up the scam stove, I realized that the volume dial had wrenched its colors off of the bloom- thereby flanking the impending bell, and setting the whole engine into fits of spurious contention. This coming after words and bleepings heard in the surrounding shops had already set sail!


Got it ?


Right, go read some real random in the casino and make some money.

Said as real professional.Me, reading it every night on several tables for years now.