Dynamic Differential Betting

[superman]

Just wanted to give full disclosure of a losing session, as I hate those threads that claim 32,000 consecutive wins and I bust out on my second go

Yeah me too mate and others I know will agree, it's a good thing you have had that "bad session" now you need to continue and see how far appart they are, you say this happened on the second session, but you are still ahead in bank that could mean you can handle plenty of bad sessions versus the good ones, time will tell as always.

Maybe if you could post a psuedo version of your method I may bot it for a long test, something like

track until ?
then do what
if win
if lose
etc, I havent kept up with the thread but do now read new posts on it, but not exactly sure what you are doing mate.

[Colbster]

Here is the basic premise of what I am doing:

Bet selection - 3 or 4 out of the last 4 gives us our next bet.  For example, if we have HHLH, I would bet H.

Money management - This is the guts of this thing and way more important than the bet selection.  We play differential bets on "winning" and "losing" the bet according to the bet selection above.  The progression is a straight d'Alembert.  +1 on a loss, -1 on a win.  When we reach level 11 on one or the other side of the differential, we swap them.  For instance, if our "wining" side is 1 and our "losing" side is at 11, that shows this EC is presently favoring "winning".  We swap the 11 to the "winning" side and the 1 to the "losing" side in the anticipation that the trend will continue and the uneven results will balance out.

If I lose at level 20 on any bet, I stop playing that EC for the session and look for the other ECs to make up the loss and then some profits for my efforts.

I don't have a drop dead win goal.  Right now, I seem to be happy playing for about 300 spins online for a session.  I am testing on BV NZ.  As I don't play with zeros, someone else might have a good idea how to deal with the zeros for those on other tables.

Thanks for the interest!  PM me if you have questions or need some clarification.

[Colbster]

Yeah me too mate and others I know will agree, it's a good thing you have had that "bad session" now you need to continue and see how far appart they are, you say this happened on the second session, but you are still ahead in bank that could mean you can handle plenty of bad sessions versus the good ones, time will tell as always.

This was my second session testing all three ECs at the same time.  The R/B seems the most volatile, having both big wins and big losses.  The E/O seems the most solid and consistent, but that remains to be seen.  I began with the H/L and had phenomenal results with just that EC, with a total of 2 busts during about 15 sessions.  I was very much in the money with that testing, being up probably around 1,000 cumulatively, even after the losses.

[superman]

I am testing on BV NZ

I'll do it for that table no problems there, I may have questions over the progression method later, will let you know.

[Tomla021]

there is def something here,, i have hand tested about 20 bacc shoes...its still hard for me to do them--confusing at the least ....
18 shoes where positive 2 small losers
I will attempt some more this week

[Colbster]

Tomla,

I am sorry for my ignorance of baccarat.  How many results come from a single shoe?  I am curious what sort of returns could be expected from a round at the table.  I might give a go at BV baccarat just for the sake of testing my system.  Sounds like a nice break from my routine.

Thanks for the feedback once again!  Glad you see the potential here like I do.

[Tomla021]

baccarat has about 60-70 hands depending on amount of decks and how many cards are dealt. You bet Banker or Player or tie (disregard tie). the great thing is the odds(about 1.25% house advantage banker has a 5% commission)  are way better than 00 roulette and its twice as fast. The game is a bit different as I believe its way choppier than roulette.
The way I would bet baccarat with a differential would be bpbpbpbpbp vs pbpbpbpbpb
the hard part is I can struggle thru with the diff bet on paper but think it would take a long time to set it up and play it in a live casino
As for know I think it has something special so I will keep on looking at it...
In Bacc im not sure if after the 10 losses to switch the column amounts as Bacc seems to even out and bounce back faster than roulette.....

[Colbster]

A cleaner implementation of my idea as you have described baccarat is as follows:

Rather than doing 3 out of 4 tracking, take an easy system that works for what you describe as the choppier game, such as opposite-of-last or penultimate, your preference.

Tracking is very easy with a piece of paper and a pencil and two lines.  Put a 1 on both the top and bottom line.  Wait for the first result to come up (1 tracking hand).  Now wait for the second hand to be played.  Let us say for this example you are playing opposite-of-last.  The first hand went banco.  Our betting system expects the opposite, punto.  If punto comes, we have a win.  If banco comes, we have a loss.  Increase whichever line did not win.  If we got a win with punto, you would increase the losing line (bottom line) by 1.  You now have a 1 over a 2.

Since our last result was punto, our system says that we are looking for the opposite, or banco.  However, we need to consider the differential bet.  We have a 2 on the losing line, a 1 on the winning line.  We subtract the 1 from the 2, leaving us a 1 unit bet on the losing line.  A win would mean a result of banco, but we are looking for a loss.  We bet 1 unit on punto to repeat. 

Let's say it does come up punto.  This means we are up 1 unit.  We had a "loss" (since our bet selection expected banco).  Since we had a loss, we increase the 1 on the winning line to 2 and we reduce the 2 on the losing line to a 1 on the losing line.

Our differential bet now suggests that we bet 1 unit on the winning line (2 on winning - 1 on losing).  We expect opposite of our last result of punto, so we place 1 unit on banco.  We get punto again.  Again, this is a loss according to our bet selection method of opposite-of-last.  We leave the losing line at 1 and increase the winning line to 3.  Our next bet would be 2 units on a win (3 on winning - 1 on losing).  We place 2 units on the opposite-of-last,  or banco.

Banco shows and we gain 2 units.  We reduce the winning line 1 unit from 3 down to 2 and increase the losing line up from 1 unit to 2.  This next hand, we don't bet because our differential values cancel each other out (2 units on winning - 2 units on losing).  Win or lose, we will increase 1 line to 3 and decrease the other to 1.  Our next hand will be 2 units on either winning or losing, depending on the result of the last hand.

Since you say that baccarat can be quite choppy, I would expect that the winning line would win more often than the losing line.  If that is the case, we will eventually have a 1 on the top winning line and an 11 on the bottom losing line.  We would swap those values for the next hand and would now have a 10-unit bet on whatever the winning result would be.  We allow the winning choppy tendencies of the game to bring us back in line.  Eventually, you might get back to the 1 on top and 11 on the bottom with a very strong chop session, or some other variation.  By this time, you would be solidly up for the session.  You could reset, pocketing the money, end the session, again pocketing the money, or swap back for another leg of this session in the hopes of even greater wins.

I hope that makes the method a little clearer for your application.  If not, just shoot me a PM and I will be glad to help you however you need.  Since you are not using a computer for your testing, a simple bet selection will make tracking a lot easier and you can concentrate on the progressions.  Good luck!

[Tomla021]

what is considered a blowout on this system? It is not one getting ahead by 10 , so what exactly is the i give up point:),, you mentioned at the start of this thread that you had a loss but where still 14 or 17 units up?

[Colbster]

The most you can possible lose in a session playing how I play is 190 units.  I play to a loss at level 20 in the progression, which is 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11+12+13+14+15+16+17+18+19+20, or 210 units.  Since a loss on 1 side of the equation is a win on the other side of the equation, the only possible way you could have 20 losses is with 20 wins.  Worst case scenario, this is 1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1, or 20 units.  The 210 units lost - the 20 units lost is 190 units.  This could only happen if you lost the first 20 consecutive bets.  I look at my progress when I hit my loss at the 10th level.  If I am up, rather than swapping progressions, I typically take my wins and reset for another go.  If I am down, I will do the swap and continue as before.  Chops are actually the best possible world because you are moving up and then back down on each progression evenly, with a +1 on each hand on one progression or the other.  It is completely possible to have positive balances on both progressions at the same time.  After a period, you will have won enough that even a total blowout of the 210 units will end in a positive balance because you have earned more than that in the plays up to the loss.

[Tomla021]

ok now i have it:) thanks so much

[Colbster]

Another session, another nice win!  Total spins: 200, ending balance: 144.  Each of the ECs performed well on this: 44, 50 and 50 unit wins.  Largest drawdown came at spin 30, with a negative 55 units.  The B/R EC went on a mad streak to start the session and moved into larger bets early on.  After switching the progressions, it had another mad streak in our favor and quickly recovered all that it had lost early on.  This one never even made me sweat!

[Colbster]

Without a doubt, my best session yet!  Over +1 unit per spin! 

Total spins: 200
H/L Progression +68
E/O Progression +65
B/R Progression +105
Total Bank +238

Lowest point -9
Only 4 spins during this 200 spin session were below 0!!!!

This was one of those rounds where you can feel how much potential this method has.  Glad to see it perform so brilliantly.

[vladir]

I'm playing this with a tweak. I reset bets whenever I'm in a new plus.
I think it adds safety to the system. Haven't lost any session yet.
Maximum I betted until now was 12.

Cheers and thank you for sharing this. Hope I'm not banned from casino for playing this way

[Colbster]

Another member on here is testing it with resetting on +1 unit as well.  I think you are correct about the safety factor and that this might be a great variation.  My actual system relies on the swap of the progressions, which is unlikely to ever happen resetting that early.  I am looking forward to seeing your results on your change.

Good luck and thanks for the idea!