Faith play a role in your gambling?

[Gizmotron]

What a bunch of poop. So the math applies to us but not to you.

The house odds for Roulette, of 5.25% for an American wheel, have nothing to do with the bet size and frequency of bets - it's simply a theoretical number with lots and lots of statistical theory behind it.


Casinos probably have an actual house odds of 90% since that's what I see as I sit at the table.


The problem gamblers have is they just don't understand the fact that if you place a single bet of 35 to 1 payoff and your chance of winning is 1 in 38 then you have to play that same bet 38 times 30 or 1,140 times before the house odds of 5.25% start to show up.  Why 30 times?  I'm rusty at probability theory but that's my recollection of the minimum number of observations needed for a binomial distribution to start to just appear.


Don't hold me to that 30, it might be 60 or more.


That's why for a spin every 2 minutes you need 1 hour of play times 2, or 60 spins, for EC bets to start to have the laws of statistics to start to work.


95% of the time I'm the only one playing EC bets during an 8 hour day - everyone else is going to lose all they bring to the table - everyone - they just don't play long enough.....

[Gizmotron]

Save

I have no idea what you are babbling about - so what else is new?


What I'm saying is that for EC bets you have to play 2 hours for statistics to start to appear.


If you bet anything but EC you are looking at 3 hours minimum.  Play Dozens or Columns then you need 30 * 3 or 90 spins for the odds to appear.  At 2 minutes per spin that's 180 minutes or 3 hours before you approach that 5.25% house odds - before then the odds are way way more favorable to the house.


It's easy to calculate the number of hours you must play before the odds favor you at that 5.26% - just take the stated probability times 30 for the number of spins.  (I remember the number of degrees of freedom * 30, but that was from my statistical class of 40 years ago)


e.g.
Play a street with the probability of 7.89% of winning and it takes 1/.0789 * 30 or 380 spins and at 1 spin every 2 minutes that's 760 minutes or 13 hours of non-stop play.  Only then will you approach the house odds of 5.26% against you, until then it's much much higher.


Math is math and no amount of insanity can change the outcome...........

[TwoCatSam]

You're right, Maui.

[Proofreaders2000]

Hey guys remember me (thread starter)

Since the casino edge is the minimum a bettor would lose in a game of chance, a small bankroll (for entertainment value) would be sufficient (and not bet more than you're willing to lose?)

[MauiSunset]

Hey guys remember me (thread starter)

Since the casino edge is the minimum a bettor would lose in a game of chance, a small bankroll (for entertainment value) would be sufficient (and not bet more than you're willing to lose?)

This is a great question - how much should your bankroll be based upon the kind of bet you place.


Let's say the min bet is $5 and you want to play for 2 hours at 1 spin every 2 minutes = 60 spins.


The Standard Deviation is 2b*sqrt(npq)
b=$5 min bet
n=60 spins
p=18/38 (prob of winning EC)
q=20/38 (prob of losing EC)


1 Std = 2*$5*sqrt(60*18/38*20/38) = $10* sqrt(60*.474*.526)=$38.7

2 Std = 2*$38.7=$77.35; 2 Std should cover you for 60 spins 95% of the time

3 Std covering 99% of the time or $116.10


Now if you believe in Voodoo math then you just need $5 all day long............

[albertojonas]

This is a great question - how much should your bankroll be based upon the kind of bet you place.


Let's say the min bet is $5 and you want to play for 2 hours at 1 spin every 2 minutes = 60 spins.


The Standard Deviation is 2b*sqrt(npq)
b=$5 min bet
n=60 spins
p=18/38 (prob of winning EC)
q=20/38 (prob of losing EC)


1 Std = 2*$5*sqrt(60*18/38*20/38) = $10* sqrt(60*.474*.526)=$38.7

2 Std = 2*$38.7=$77.35; 2 Std should cover you for 60 spins 95% of the time

3 Std covering 99% of the time or $116.10


Now if you believe in Voodoo math then you just need $5 all day long............

just wonder what casino gives you those comps worth of 1500$

[ddarko]

MauiSunset could well be correct I don't know 

What I DO know is if you don't believe it is beatable THEN you have zero chance of beating it !!!!!

[Gizmotron]

just wonder what casino gives you those comps worth of 1500$

It's fairly simple arithmetic. The factors are $1500 comp, 40% comp rate, and 240 spins. From that, the average size for each bet can be calculated. With that calculation the amount of expected loss can be calculated. Basic arithmetic will show that more than $1,500 should occur. By the math alone the casino should take in more than they give back in comps. The good news is that mauiSunset believes otherwise. Now that's economical justification.

[GARNabby]

What I DO know is if you don't believe it is beatable THEN you have zero chance of beating it !

Or of wasting some much time, etc.

[ddarko]

Or of wasting some much time, etc.

ANOTHER positive post from GARN 

Whatever you say man.