opinions please

[Skakus]

If you could absolutely 100% guarantee a long term 2% edge over roulette by flat betting would that be enough for you to take up semi or full time play?

You would need an average total wager of $10,000 to earn $200. Seems like a lot for a little but don’t forget, it’s a guaranteed profit.


You could expect to bet anywhere from $6000 to $14,000 on any session you play.

If you stepped it up to $30,000 then you’d earn $600 a day.

Bigger table limits and the sky’s the limit!

Do you think casinos would notice someone skimming off such a small %?

[flukey luke]

An interesting post which raises a few questions.

A 2% edge sounds great on the face of things. BUT......

How much bankroll would one need.

How much spare time does someone have. (I am playing online at the moment between 50-60 hours a week. You can't really just nip in and out for 5 minutes with a 2% edge)

A few online casinos are now stating in their terms and conditions that they can refuse to pay out winnings to anyone they consider to be a professional player. In other words, recreational (mug) players only. So you have to ask yourself what constitutes a professional player. I would say someone who treats it like a business. Someone who flat bets and wins the majority of sessions grinding out small wins with the occasional 'lucky' session thrown in.

Will the casinos notice?

I am pretty sure they will have someone flagged as a consistent winner soon enough. There are ways around that if you are creative and have friends who are happy to take a small percentage of winnings for services rendered. Some online casinos tend to come down on the winners more or less straight away making the little things more complicated than they need to be.

*The above is based on online play. I suppose playing at live B+M casinos will limit your exposure a bit however you then have to factor in expenses and such. I find playing at home more relaxing and stress free without feeling the need to win because of any time constraints.

You owe it to yourself to give pro play a try if you have spent many years studying the game and feel confident that you have an edge. Just don't throw the baby out with the bath water and hang on to what you could not afford to lose should things go pear shaped.

Just to add. I have turned over 500k over the last 6 months and I am not betting in big units either. You could say that I should have lost about 15-20k. I am making more than 5% profit on turnover and going strong. IT CAN BE DONE. It is just another job which you can argue gives you more flexibility as you are working for yourself. The downside is no sick pay, no pension plan. Some of these things mean nothing in the world we live in today anyhow.

good luck and good timing. (you still need a little bit of both)

[Steve]

You have to consider the style of betting. For example, a 2% edge when you need to constantly bet after ball release is likely to get attention from staff before you made enough money. But if it was completely covert (ie red/black etc) then of course it is worthwhile. It is not much different to the edge the casino has over average players.

[beretta28]

Steve answer is OK,but I'd say something in addition.
Even with 2% edge and playing flat bet,you need a huge bankroll,otherwise you can't offset the negative unbalance that for sure you have to "tolerate"!
I think that you need 5 times the highest negative balance you have met in your test.

[6th-sense]

interesting thoughts ...i,ve recently had a debate with someone i know about if you were guaranteed an edge of 15% or even less you could compound your winnings and add it to the total bank them get 15% of that etc keep adding it on and you would pretty soon be making a lot of money.. link:://:.moneychimp.com/calculator/compound_interest_calculator.htm here is a compound interest calculator..urrent principal would be 100 as a start bank...years to grow would be the number of sessions..interest rate would be your guaranteed edge say 2%...compound interest would stay at 1 ....so 100 start bank ...50 sessions ....interest rate 2%..compounded after 50 sessions gives you a total of..269.16....100 sessions would tally up to 724.46.....200 sessions would tally up to 5,248.49...even a 1% guaranteed edge you would make a fortune....the debate came from making money from roulette odds betting...ie arbing.....or lay betting...which is completley possible with a bit of know how....

[Steve]

Beating the casino is not that hard. The main issues are time, and avoiding detection. 2% is definitely worthwhile considering the points raised, but you can get much better.

[Skakus]

Thanks for your opinions.

Because 2% is such a small return the betting volume needs to be high, so you could always throw the occasional few bets down before ball release without affecting the 2% profit to any great degree.
So 2% is enough if flat betting before ball release?

As for compounding, it’s a proven approach but I’m not sure it’s practical for roulette when playing for a living. You would probably want to spend whatever you won.

So a big initial bank is probably a prerequisite. Maybe 3 times the greatest expected drawdown would be enough. In this case that would be about $42,000 bankroll just to win $200 a day! So 84k for $400 and 126k for $600!

I wouldn’t bother for $200, but $400 a day is tempting.

Would you start a legitimate business if I told you it will earn $400 dollars a day after tax, but you need $84,000 to set up the business and remain liquid? You would need to work for 200 days to return your initial commitment?

[Steve]

So 2% is enough if flat betting before ball release?

Yes. Blackjack players used to wet their pants with a 1% edge. 2% is enough. You would basically win at roughly the rate other players would lose if they flat bet.

If you are talking about casino play, 200 days is not easy. You will be so over the casino by then, winning or not. But more feasible if you work in a team. Especially with just a 2% edge, you will be over it quickly.

With a starting investment of over $80,000 you can do better though, and probably with a lot less risk. I dont know enough about what you're talking about though.

[iggiv]

if u make 2% every day starting from 100 bucks then probably in a year or so u r a millionaire.
no need for a big bankroll, u will grow it up yourself.

[Skakus]

if u make 2% every day starting from 100 bucks then probably in a year or so u r a millionaire.
no need for a big bankroll, u will grow it up yourself.

On paper 2% every day from $100 and you would be rich in 12 months.

Sadly in the real world it don't work that. You need to live, eat, pay your bills, etc. So you need to earn as you go.

The big bankroll is needed to offset drawdowns. The 2% would be average earnings on dollars invested.

There is also the double edged sword of casino table limits and detection. They would not let you come in there and start betting thousands of dollars per number then walking off with 2% profit day in and day out, which is what you would have to do to turn $100 into a fortune in one year.

Slow and steady wins the race.

[iggiv]

to tell u the truth betting 10K for 200 bucks looks a bit risky. There is no such a thing as anything guaranteed in roulette. Something can happen for whatever reason.

[Skakus]

I agree it sounds scary but the point of this thread is to suspend reality and imagine a guaranteed profit.


Also don't forget it's an average earning. Sometimes you might only spend $6000 and profit $3000. Other times you might lose $14000. End of the day you will profit $200 per day regardless.

Now, is it worth it, and would you do it?

[Steve]

$200/day isnt a lot these days, especially if you spend the whole day to get it. For an $80,000 investment, there are better ways to make money that dont take so much time.

[Skakus]

 
$80,000 is for $400 a day.

On any given day you would only invest between 12k and 28k. The 80k is a drawdown buffer.

The most you could ever lose in 1 day is about 10k.

Yes there are much better earners out there, but this is about roulette, and more specifically, roulette for a living, and is 2% good enough?

Don't forget you could always have the bulk of your bankroll invested elsewhere while it's not needed.

[6th-sense]

pretty interesting points of view....just have to say the person in question i am talking about does this for a living..he will put money o n an outcome on both teams in any kind of game..using the odds given he will win regardless of who wins or loses..he thinks nothing of betting 4000 to win 10 or 20 units ..its a guaranteed win and multiples a day add up to a good earner...anything guaranteed even 50 or 80 a day is worth the effort tax free if your a pensioner its a fortune and if you have no work and built this up its your pension its the difference between a good life or not...anything won from a bankroll is a plus...a bankroll just being spent will deplete in time..i know which i prefer...
as to a percentage is not guaranteed beouse of the nature of his proffesion this is what its all about..with so many things he does he was asking me my ideas on roulette and how to guarantee a profit.....we talked and argued a while then he told me what and how he was going to make money from this game...he was going to start lay betting through his affiliate sites...an affiliate site gets 25% return on a customers losses..live casinos use same feeds ....you would bet 100 on red and 5.5 on green...on one site then 100 on black on another site using the same live casino and on the same spin...win or lose you would win 25% of losses from one side minus 5.5 for the green...a total of 19.50 win....depending on how much you wan to bet at once this is a good return for one account...many accounts will quadruple this....you get paid at the end of the month from the sites so its one bet only for the month per customer...thats the easy bit there is a bit more to avoid detection but for numerious reasons i can,t explain them online...but i think you get the idea