EC

[albertojonas]

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@ albertononas you understand it wrong ...

regarding what EGO?

[Robeenhuut]

Hello Ego

Your idea does not show any advantage over betting against any pattern.
And such betting against any pattern of EC's never worked.
You made a wrong assumption about a probability and you just hope to string up
few wins and get out. You can use any progression you want or flat bet but it comes
down to pure luck. You showed some examples of betting but they are small samples.
As to a probability its a mistake most people make in roulette. Example:
You see 10 R in a row on a board. You bet 5 step Marty against it becoming 15 R in a row.
Probability of 15 R in a row is roughly 1/30000 so you think that you need only 32/1 probability of success to beat such a rare event. Wrong.. you lost already 10 virtual bets and it becomes just  like regular 5 step Marty against any EC.

Regards   
 

[ego]

Hello Ego

Your idea does not show any advantage over betting against any pattern.
And such betting against any pattern of ECs never worked.
You made a wrong assumption about a probability and you just hope to string up
few wins and get out. You can use any progression you want or flat bet but it comes
down to pure luck. You showed some examples of betting but they are small samples.
As to a probability its a mistake most people make in roulette. Example:
You see 10 R in a row on a board. You bet 5 step Marty against it becoming 15 R in a row.
Probability of 15 R in a row is roughly 1/30000 so you think that you need only 32/1 probability of success to beat such a rare event. Wrong.. you lost already 10 virtual bets and it becomes just  like regular 5 step Marty against any EC.

Regards   

Exactly what i have been saying there is no other bet selection on this forum for EC that produce better results or higher strike ratio and you still not have to use Marty to win.
There does not exist any roulette system in the world that has advantage or edge over the house.
So i agree with you.
I have run 800 000 and 1M with out using Marty and does end up with profits, so my statment is valid.
Been testing Fibo witch is much better then Marty.

I would never recommend any one playing a roulette system - its a wast of money.

[Bayes]

As to a probability its a mistake most people make in roulette. Example:
You see 10 R in a row on a board. You bet 5 step Marty against it becoming 15 R in a row.
Probability of 15 R in a row is roughly 1/30000 so you think that you need only 32/1 probability of success to beat such a rare event. Wrong.. you lost already 10 virtual bets and it becomes just  like regular 5 step Marty against any EC.

True, spins are independent events, but you have to be careful you don't end up like one of the "mathboyz" and end up saying things like "you could get 100 reds in a row". 

The mere fact that spins are independent can lead to illogical conclusions, if you don't understand the bigger picture. You have to take into account the binomial distribution and regression to the mean. A sequence with a strong deviation doesn't CAUSE the following sequence to be closer to the average, but that's what actually happens. The trick is to find the right entry point. 

Here's an example sequence I played this morning:

[attachimg=1]

It's not that Low was "due" for a comeback, only that strong deviations won't continue indefinitely. If they did, it would mean that the concept of a distribution governed by laws of probability is meaningless.

In my opinion, exploiting these kinds of events is the only way to make a long term profit from any "system", and there are countless such events occurring all the time in roulette, it's just a question of identifying them.

[Robeenhuut]

True, spins are independent events, but you have to be careful you don't end up like one of the "mathboyz" and end up saying things like "you could get 100 reds in a row". 

The mere fact that spins are independent can lead to illogical conclusions, if you don't understand the bigger picture. You have to take into account the binomial distribution and regression to the mean. A sequence with a strong deviation doesn't CAUSE the following sequence to be closer to the average, but that's what actually happens. The trick is to find the right entry point. 

Here's an example sequence I played this morning:

[attachimg=1]

It's not that Low was "due" for a comeback, only that strong deviations won't continue indefinitely. If they did, it would mean that the concept of a distribution governed by laws of probability is meaningless.

In my opinion, exploiting these kinds of events is the only way to make a long term profit from any "system", and there are countless such events occurring all the time in roulette, it's just a question of identifying them.

Yeah regression toward the mean is one of most misunderstood concepts in the gaming.
Nothing is really due in short term and only way to capitalize on it is to sort of bet against it by trying to ride the event that for relatively short time has a highly unusual distribution rate.

[TwoCatSam]

Bayes

"deviations won't continue indefinitely."

What force in the Universe causes the deviations to cease?  Or is this action without underlying cause?  See, in my slowly-going-feeble mind, I say, "Well something caused the deviations to cease or they, themselves, decided to cease."

R. D. Ellison referred to this as "statistical pressure" in that the numbers "tried" to equalize themselves somewhat so as not to look so lopsided to the outside world.  He's a bit of a out-there guy, but he wrote some good stuff.

What do you think?  Is there "statistical pressure" or "numerical peer pressure"?  Dang!  I coined a phrase!

Sam

[Robeenhuut]

To me he is not an authority on roulette systems 4 sure. I know that you like his "Angels" system but i hope you tweaked it because lots of people put it down.  I know that most systems out there are  proven to be the losers but certainly i would not trust his opinion blindly.
I like GUT on other hand 4 some inexplicable reason 

[TwoCatSam]

Rob

The system is called the A3q or some combination of those and yes, I did tweak it a bit.  I made it tougher to bet.  I demand three out of the last five and for the target group to not have hit back to back. For me it always worked pretty well, but it takes far too long to find a bet.  You can get As and non-As for ages or vice-versa.  It's like a code in it's waiting time.

I'd rather just bet the penultimate dozen and be done with it.

But Ellison raises some very interesting points, one of which I asked above.  Few will even try to answer it. 

Sam

[Robeenhuut]

Rob

The system is called the A3q or some combination of those and yes, I did tweak it a bit.  I made it tougher to bet.  I demand three out of the last five and for the target group to not have hit back to back. For me it always worked pretty well, but it takes far too long to find a bet.  You can get As and non-As for ages or vice-versa.  It's like a code in it's waiting time.

I'd rather just bet the penultimate dozen and be done with it.

But Ellison raises some very interesting points, one of which I asked above.  Few will even try to answer it. 

Sam

Thanks Sam.  What about GUT?  You mentioned recently that you were still playing it?  Do you use this KonFuSed tracker?  I know that you can not play it blindly....

[TwoCatSam]

Rob

I love to play the G.U.T on Dublin.  Play money, for sure.  I use the Track4 written by droidman.  The other only goes to fifty spins and sometimes I hang in there to 60 or more if I've got a good crossing coming up.  Like 12 v 11.  It happens, but not often.

I actually use little yellow post-it arrows under the columns on Track4 because it is less tedious than always thinking...it's 1 vs 2; never >1 vs 1.  >1 is never a crossing unless it is on the right...1 vs >1

Maybe it'll all be clearer after next Tuesdays cataract surgery and new glasses.



Sam

Don't mean to brag, hak-kaff, but I'm almost at #4,000 profit using my methods on Dublin.

[Robeenhuut]

Rob

I love to play the G.U.T on Dublin.  Play money, for sure.  I use the Track4 written by droidman.  The other only goes to fifty spins and sometimes I hang in there to 60 or more if I've got a good crossing coming up.  Like 12 v 11.  It happens, but not often.

I actually use little yellow post-it arrows under the columns on Track4 because it is less tedious than always thinking...it's 1 vs 2; never >1 vs 1.  >1 is never a crossing unless it is on the right...1 vs >1

Maybe it'll all be clearer after next Tuesdays cataract surgery and new glasses.



Sam

Don't mean to brag, hak-kaff, but I'm almost at #4,000 profit using my methods on Dublin.

You need 2 do something 2 start playing 4 real money online. I use GUTCBA tracker and it works fine.. But you need 2 get a feel of GUT. I would not trust any software  2 make any decision 4 me especially in a such complex system as GUT.

Regards

[vile]

Maybe it'll all be clearer after next Tuesdays cataract surgery and new glasses.
--Did both eyes/with intervals of 1 year/now reading without glasses.
  Good luck Sam on tuesday.



Sam

Don't mean to brag, hak-kaff, but I'm almost at #4,000 profit using my methods on Dublin.
--Fun or real dough.
[/quote]

[TwoCatSam]

Thanks Vile

It's funny money  #s, as Dublin calls it.

This brings up a point.  What a person can do with #1,000 they may or may not be about to do with 1000E in real money.

My eyes are being done 25 days apart.  Now one sees one way and one another!   

Sam

[vile]

This brings up a point.  What a person can do with #1,000 they may or may not be about to do with 1000E in real money.
--[color=blueThey should be on DB/fair casino/provide it is played with confidence
and proven method./I hear already......no such method exists/and my unswer is
depends to whom.[/color]


Sam
[/quote]

[Skakus]

Hi Bayes,

Your dosbox graph reminds me of this.



b dub vietnam



And this.


Chicken crossing the road



Now moving across the page treat each cell of the graph as a street to cross.

I think you will eventually find that it takes an average of about 9.5 spins to traverse each cell.

You will also see that it takes 4 chops to cross each cell.

From here you can create an EC bet for every time it takes 8 spins to show 3 chops. This bet can run continuously always watching for 3 chops over 8 spins.

Each time you see 3 chops over 8 spins you would bet for the 4^th chop. I suggest betting only twice with a 1.2 unit progression.

This is actually a very strong selection method that I’ve been watching for a long time. Your graph seems to reaffirmed my findings from a while back.

Cheers.