EC

[TwoCatSam]

vile

When I was in pole climbing school I learned there was a lot of difference between being two feet off the ground with sawdust below you and being 90 ft. up with asphalt below you.

I find the same feeling when playing with # vs playing with E.  It is just not the same.  For me anyway.

Hopefully, someday, that will change.

Sam

[ego]

True, spins are independent events, but you have to be careful you don't end up like one of the "mathboyz" and end up saying things like "you could get 100 reds in a row". 

The mere fact that spins are independent can lead to illogical conclusions, if you don't understand the bigger picture. You have to take into account the binomial distribution and regression to the mean. A sequence with a strong deviation doesn't CAUSE the following sequence to be closer to the average, but that's what actually happens. The trick is to find the right entry point. 

Here's an example sequence I played this morning:

[attachimg=1]

It's not that Low was "due" for a comeback, only that strong deviations won't continue indefinitely. If they did, it would mean that the concept of a distribution governed by laws of probability is meaningless.

In my opinion, exploiting these kinds of events is the only way to make a long term profit from any "system", and there are countless such events occurring all the time in roulette, it's just a question of identifying them.

Strong deviations won't continue indefinitely - if they did - it would mean that the concept of a distibution governed by laws of probability is meaningless.

I agree.

I like the grahp you post as you can chart very effective using that method in Casino.

RRRR
R
BB
RRRRR
BBB
RRRR
BB
RR
BBB
R
B
R
B

Very nice ...

[Still]

[attachimg=1]

I use DosBox for a lot of things.  I'm wondering what this program is and why you use a Dos program.  Most of all, i'm wondering how i can get this software too!  It looks like point and figure.

[Drazen]

Here you go Still


Here is all you need


link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9376.0


Cheers


Drazen

[Still]

Here you go Still

Here is all you need

link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9376.0

Cheers

Drazen

Thanks drazen_cro, i just noticed that thread.  To thank you i'll point to a thread i know of that seems to make good use of the old point and figure method:


link:://:.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=122236&highlight=P%26F

[Drazen]

Thanks i ll check it out 


Drazen

[warrior]

Hi Bayes,

Your dosbox graph reminds me of this.



b dub vietnam



And this.


Chicken crossing the road



Now moving across the page treat each cell of the graph as a street to cross.

I think you will eventually find that it takes an average of about 9.5 spins to traverse each cell.

You will also see that it takes 4 chops to cross each cell.

From here you can create an EC bet for every time it takes 8 spins to show 3 chops. This bet can run continuously always watching for 3 chops over 8 spins.

Each time you see 3 chops over 8 spins you would bet for the 4^the chop. I suggest betting only twice with a 1.2 unit progression.

This is actually a very strong selection method that I’ve been watching for a long time. Your graph seems to reaffirmed my findings from a while back.

Cheers.

How do you mean bet onle twice?

[Robeenhuut]

Hello Warrior

You just bet 2 step for formation of 4th chop after you see 3 chops in 8 spins.
Just one more way 2 capitalize on trends in Ec's.
I personally always bet 4 repeat of last EC. The reason? I never saw chop sequence longer than 11 spins but saw more than 15 repeats few times. But some people will always disagree.
The chance of 2 events happening is of course d same. I just feel more comfy playing this way.

Regards

[warrior]

Hello Warrior

You just bet 2 step for formation of 4th chop after you see 3 chops in 8 spins.
Just one more way 2 capitalize on trends in ECs.
I personally always bet 4 repeat of last EC. The reason? I never saw chop sequence longer than 11 spins but saw more than 15 repeats few times. But some people will always disagree.
The chance of 2 events happening is of course d same. I just feel more comfy playing this way.

Regards

i have seen about 20 chops in row and a 0 into th mix.

[Robeenhuut]

Im not surprised  Warrior. I just flat bet against chops sometimes if i see them forming.  No prog whatsoever.

[Bayes]

Bayes

"deviations won't continue indefinitely."

What force in the Universe causes the deviations to cease?  Or is this action without underlying cause?  See, in my slowly-going-feeble mind, I say, "Well something caused the deviations to cease or they, themselves, decided to cease."

R. D. Ellison referred to this as "statistical pressure" in that the numbers "tried" to equalize themselves somewhat so as not to look so lopsided to the outside world.  He's a bit of a out-there guy, but he wrote some good stuff.

What do you think?  Is there "statistical pressure" or "numerical peer pressure"?  Dang!  I coined a phrase!

Sam

Sam, the probability answer to that is that there are more ways to "get to" a result which closer to the average (that's why it's an average). This may help (don't let the math put you off, the idea is quite simple):

link:://:.financialwebring.org/gummy-stuff/coin-tossing.htm

[Bayes]

Hi Bayes,

Your dosbox graph reminds me of this.



b dub vietnam



And this.


Chicken crossing the road



Now moving across the page treat each cell of the graph as a street to cross.

I think you will eventually find that it takes an average of about 9.5 spins to traverse each cell.

You will also see that it takes 4 chops to cross each cell.

From here you can create an EC bet for every time it takes 8 spins to show 3 chops. This bet can run continuously always watching for 3 chops over 8 spins.

Each time you see 3 chops over 8 spins you would bet for the 4^the chop. I suggest betting only twice with a 1.2 unit progression.

This is actually a very strong selection method that I’ve been watching for a long time. Your graph seems to reaffirmed my findings from a while back.

Cheers.

Skakus, I like the way you think! 

That's why I added the grid, in order to help with spotting patterns.

[Bayes]

I use DosBox for a lot of things.  I'm wondering what this program is and why you use a Dos program.

Hi Still,

I know Dosbox isn't ideal, my main OS is Linux but the programming language I use only has support for graphics in the DOS version, so rather than have to learn a new set of syntax and library routines, I decided to do it in DOS, so basically, the answer is laziness. 

[Bayes]

Does random really have any limits? mathematically speaking, it doesn't.

You might be mistaken for thinking that it does if you look at the standard bell curve:

[attachimg=1]

It SEEMS that the curve actually touches the horizontal axis, and that would correspond to some kind of limit, but actually the curve only ever gets closer to the horizontal axis, but never touches (this is what mathematicians call an "asymptote", meaning that it's a bit like a horizon which is ever-receding).

And of course the danger of "chasing equilibrium" is that by that very selection, you have thereby excluded a large number of "average" sequences, so in a sense you're seeking out those runs from hell. Nevertheless, outcomes WILL balance out, and the method is dangerous only to the extent that you haven't done the research and are using a progression which hits the house limit too quickly. If you take it slow and don't progress too quickly, you'll be ok. 

[Still]

Hi Still,

I know Dosbox isn't ideal, my main OS is Linux but the programming language I use only has support for graphics in the DOS version, so rather than have to learn a new set of syntax and library routines, I decided to do it in DOS, so basically, the answer is laziness. 

Now i must know what programming language you used for that!  Pascal?  Power Basic?

Dunno if it runs on Linux but Bulls-Eye Broker comes highly recommended for PnF...at least for financial media.