The JL Challenge

[GARNabby]

Finally in the black! 

Ya, that's how the casino-games are set up.  Likely a 99% chance that a persistent gambler will find himself ahead, and on several occasions.  And a 100% chance that eventually, without a well-documented mathematical method, that he will find himself completely-broke.  (The luckiest of them learn that lesson very early-on.)

Well done John.And well done, Skakus, nearly 3,000 bets and your z-score has been consistently high. Currently at 2.00.

What else would you expect from someone who has one of those "plain 5% bank accounts", and has to rely on something called a "z-score (to make sense of probability at a casino)".


P.S.  Great entertainment, will drop in again in a month, or two.  Lol.

[TwoCatSam]

***but I'm not sure if Bayes rng carries on from where it left off or starts fresh each time you open the program.***

If it carried on, would it be an RNG?

I second F's statement:  What is different about "Bayes RNG" and any other.  If RNGs are truly random, how can they be different?

You all think about this:

If you had a cement mixer with a thousand red balls and a thousand black balls in it and you ran it for ten minutes, would the mix be random?  Now if you poured it into a sack and thoroughly shook the sack, would it be more random?

The question is:  How random can random get?  Is there randomer and randomest?

JL keeps insinuating the test is him against "Bayes RNG".  The test should be can JL profit from a stream of random numbers.  Where they came from is of little matter.

Sam

[Bayes]

What else would you expect from someone who has one of those "plain 5% bank accounts", and has to rely on something called a "z-score (to make sense of probability at a casino)".

He's not "relying" on the z-score, I just calculated it because it gives an objective measurement of the success or otherwise of a bet selection.

[Bayes]

***but I'm not sure if Bayes rng carries on from where it left off or starts fresh each time you open the program.***

I'm not sure what this means, to be honest. The RNG is obviously a pseudo RNG unlike the RNG from random.org which uses hardware (radioactive decay, I think). Pseudo RNG means that the numbers will EVENTUALLY repeat (but only after billions of spins), so for all intents and purposes it doesn't matter that the outcomes are deterministic. Usually what happens is that a "seed" is taken from the system clock and determines the start of the cycle, so in that sense it will start afresh each time you run the program, but it shouldn't make any difference to the randomness of the numbers.

@ Sam,

There are lots of ways you can test for randomness, all RNG's have to pass a suite of statistical tests to be deemed "truly" random. But then, what is "true" random, no-one knows!

barcode posted a link recently to a site where you can enter numbers and run tests on them for randomness, but I forget which thread it was in.

[TwoCatSam]

Bayes

I saw that test and took it for a few tries.  I am very random!!

I have heard it said that if a mosquito farts near an RNG it will change the out come.  Chaos!

But who pays attention to mosquito farts?  Mrs. Mosquito, that's who!!

I gotta go.....

Sam

[Bayes]

Looks like there are problems again on the web page. 

Complete gibberish being uploaded there now. I'll look into it tomorrow. I think the best solution is to have a database like I suggested before.

[Still]

Looks like there are problems again on the web page. 

Complete gibberish being uploaded there now. I'll look into it tomorrow. I think the best solution is to have a database like I suggested before.

There's a big difference between Skakus updates and JL updates. Skakus is doing fine.  It can't be true that they are both the same software.  When i try to load JL updates into Excel, there are gaps between the sessions.  Each session has one additional blank between the last session.  After 15 sessions, for example, there might be 15 blank lines in between sessions.  Skakus is fine.  Has not lost any data, even though he has as many or more bets than JL had when his software first started messing with the already uploaded data.  It just doesn't make sense to me why already uploaded data should be deleted, and in the latest case, it truncated "283" to "28". 

So my suggestion is to copy Skakus version over to JL and of course reset where he is currently at. 

[Johnlegend]

There's a big difference between Skakus updates and JL updates. Skakus is doing fine.  It can't be true that they are both the same software.  When i try to load JL updates into Excel, there are gaps between the sessions.  Each session has one additional blank between the last session.  After 15 sessions, for example, there might be 15 blank lines in between sessions.  Skakus is fine.  Has not lost any data, even though he has as many or more bets than JL had when his software first started messing with the already uploaded data.  It just doesn't make sense to me why already uploaded data should be deleted, and in the latest case, it truncated "283" to "28". 

So my suggestion is to copy Skakus version over to JL and of course reset where he is currently at.

Yes that's been the cutoff pattern since it first occurred. Still. After about 50 uploads it will cut back to the first 15--20 plays first entered and only have your most recent upload under that. But I have all results from 203 to my new balance 430 saved anyway. If you still want me to send you them for analysis purposes Still??

[Johnlegend]

Looks like there are problems again on the web page. 

Complete gibberish being uploaded there now. I'll look into it tomorrow. I think the best solution is to have a database like I suggested before.

Whatever solves the problem Bayes I dont mind.

[Johnlegend]

***but I'm not sure if Bayes rng carries on from where it left off or starts fresh each time you open the program.***

If it carried on, would it be an RNG?

I second F's statement:  What is different about "Bayes RNG" and any other.  If RNGs are truly random, how can they be different?

You all think about this:

If you had a cement mixer with a thousand red balls and a thousand black balls in it and you ran it for ten minutes, would the mix be random?  Now if you poured it into a sack and thoroughly shook the sack, would it be more random?

The question is:  How random can random get?  Is there randomer and randomest?

JL keeps insinuating the test is him against "Bayes RNG".  The test should be can JL profit from a stream of random numbers.  Where they came from is of little matter.

Sam

That's true Sam. I only refer to it as Bayes RNG because well... it is. I know there shouldnt be any difference regardless of where your source comes from.

[Still]

Yes that's been the cutoff pattern since it first occurred. Still. After abut 50 uploads it will cut back to the first 15--20 plays first entered and only have your most recent upload under that. But I have all results from 203 to my new balance 430 saved anyway. If you still want me to send you them for analysis purposes Still??

Yes, i'd like to have the data from 203 thanks very much.  And i hope whatever system you are using keeps going up to 2000.   

[Johnlegend]

Yes, i'd like to have the data from 203 thanks very much.  And i hope whatever system you are using keeps going up to 2000.

Still PM me your email please. Well I am using FIVE. All the way. Its been tested once tonight in 80 games. I dont want to say its holy just yet. But its done alot better than anything else I could throw at this RNG. And to use one of Twisters expressions. If it even gives me 400/1 Its supernova proof in my book. I am currently 288 and 0.

[amk]

Keep it going JL!!


Sorry to have been out of touch, working on some things as usual.

[Johnlegend]

Ya, that's how the casino-games are set up.  Likely a 99% chance that a persistent gambler will find himself ahead, and on several occasions.  And a 100% chance that eventually, without a well-documented mathematical method, that he will find himself completely-broke.  (The luckiest of them learn that lesson very early-on.)
What else would you expect from someone who has one of those "plain 5% bank accounts", and has to rely on something called a "z-score (to make sense of probability at a casino)".


P.S.  Great entertainment, will drop in again in a month, or two.  LoL.

We cant wait geez. Whered they get this guy from? .

[Johnlegend]

Keep it going JL!!


Sorry to have been out of touch, working on some things as usual.

Good to hear from you again AMK. Its all good. Had a tough ride. But I think I've hit calmer waters now. I don't give up easily. From a dangerous low of 57 points. I've pulled it back to a decent figure. Still a mountain to climb to reach 5000 points. But lets hope FIVE is as good as I think it is.