The JL Challenge

Robeenhuut · Aug 08, 02:50 AM 2012

Hello John

It seems that you changed your progression from 1,3,9,27 to other staking plans for double dozens.
How many games in a row did you win using 1,3,9,27 ? Congrats on your progress.

Regards

Bayes · Aug 08, 03:38 AM 2012

John,

There are couple of changes I want to make to the program, sorry to be a pain but it will actually make life a bit easier for you. Firstly, I need to change the "house limit" to 100 units. I thought I'd made it 100 u when I coded it, but for some reason it ended up at 50. Also, although it's a bit slow incrementing the stakes one u at time, I'll leave this the way it is - it's probably not a good idea to make it too easy to bet large stakes.

Second, at the moment the results are saved to just one file which records all bets since you started, but it will be easier for you to post the ongoing results if I create a second file which only saves the results of the last session by date. By that I mean it will reset the file every time the date changes (rather than by session, which will mean you have to save the file every time you close and restart the program).

Also, another reason why I'm doing this is because at the moment you might accidentally change the main file when copying parts of it to post here, so it's probably better if you either don't open it at all or just open it for looking at the overall results.

Carry on as you are for the moment, I'll send you a pm when I've coded the changes.

Bayes · Aug 08, 04:13 AM 2012

Quote from: TwoCatSam on Aug 07, 04:50 PM 2012
So is this the latest deal...........

John posts his play and Bayes verifies it?

Sam

Sam, yep, that's the deal.

I've put quite a bit of effort into making sure that they can't cheat, or rather, not that they CAN'T cheat (I can't stop that) but that if they do, then I'll know about it.

I mentioned the hash function in a previous post, which ensures that if any data is changed, a completely different hash number will be generated. The hash numbers are saved to a file, so when JL and Skakus send me the files (the results file and the hash file) I will run through the results and check that they do generate the same hash numbers. The hash numbers are generated at random times when the program is running and are saved immediately to a file.

Now suppose that JL's had a few beers and has a really bad session - he's lost half his bank. Since the results are written to the file only when the program quits, what's to stop him from opening the results file and deleting the last session? Nothing, but as the hash numbers have already been written, it means that I'll know something's missing when I run the verification. Note that it won't help JL to force the program to quit (maybe by switching off his computer or using the task manager), because in that case, the file may not have been updated, but the hash numbers will still be there.

But what about the hash file itself? can't that be modified? Yes, but you won't know which hash number corresponds to which part of the results file, and if you change anything here then the verification will also fail.

The only way they could cheat and I wouldn't know about it is at the start. So suppose the very first session is a big loss. You could then completely erase BOTH files and start over. Rinse and repeat until you get the results you want.

But in a long term test like this one, it won't count for much.

Bayes · Aug 08, 04:32 AM 2012

Quote from: Skakus on Aug 07, 06:11 AM 2012
I've been thinking about the +5000 or -500 challenge limits put forward by JL, and I'm not sure if it's the best option, especially because we are playing different probabilities/progressions?

What about a placed bet amount total instead?

What would be an acceptable number of bets for EC or DOZ/COL bets using progressions?

For example 10,000 placed EC bets with a bankroll still intact? What about 20,000 placed EC bets with a bankroll still intact?

Any opinions?

I've been thinking about this. It would be nice to a have good reason for setting a number of bets. More is better of course, but we have to be practical. I remember Kelly saying that you need at least 50,000 placed bets to "prove" that a EC system is a winner. I think it was based on 3 STD but can't remember the details of how he came to that number.

On thing I could do is to write a simulation to find out how many bets are necessary for the house edge to "catch up" and eliminate every player. i.e. - The program will simulate say 1000 sessions flat betting. Each session will last for 1000, 2000, 3000 etc spins. When I've found a number such that EVERY session ends in a loss, then using that number of spins should eliminate winning purely by chance.

Johnlegend · Aug 08, 05:41 AM 2012

Quote from: Skakus on Aug 08, 02:48 AM 2012
That is a very impressive final section on those charts!

Hey JL, can you PM me your new MO?

I want to change from mine to yours so you can't catch me >>

Skaks whats MO? Cheeky. Let me do a Usain bolt on you first then youll get it. DOUBLE MATCH is finally showing its power. I now have a fairly powerful BR. So I can play it with pure confidence. About to upload todays play.

Johnlegend · Aug 08, 05:46 AM 2012

03/08/2012
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08/08/2012
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08/08/2012
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08/08/2012
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08/08/2012
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08/08/2012
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08/08/2012
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08/08/2012
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08/08/2012
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DOZ3 4 W 800

Good seesion today. DOUBLE MATCH is finally doing what I expect of it. I have the power base now to push it properly and not play tentatively at the wrong times. Its given me a nice increase of 180 points for the day. I got my play in early today. As I have a lot to do. Cheers.

Stepkevh · Aug 08, 06:04 AM 2012

Johnlegend · Aug 08, 06:07 AM 2012

Quote from: Robeenhuut on Aug 08, 02:50 AM 2012
Hello John

It seems that you changed your progression from 1,3,9,27 to other staking plans for double dozens.
How many games in a row did you win using 1,3,9,27 ? Congrats on your progress.

Regards

Hi Hutt. I won about 380 games with that progression. I am playing more loosely now. More instinctively because. A, I am playing DOUBLE MATCH which is a double dozen perecentage method. And B, I have a fairly strong BR. So I can stake big at the right times and not Have to be too careful. The bigger the bankroll the more confidence you have. So I will be aiming for bigger wins each session now. I will aim to break 4 figures by the close of play this friday.

Johnlegend · Aug 08, 06:29 AM 2012

Quote from: Bayes on Aug 08, 03:38 AM 2012
John,

There are couple of changes I want to make to the program, sorry to be a pain but it will actually make life a bit easier for you. Firstly, I need to change the "house limit" to 100 units. I thought I'd made it 100 u when I coded it, but for some reason it ended up at 50. Also, although it's a bit slow incrementing the stakes one u at time, I'll leave this the way it is - it's probably not a good idea to make it too easy to bet large stakes.

Second, at the moment the results are saved to just one file which records all bets since you started, but it will be easier for you to post the ongoing results if I create a second file which only saves the results of the last session by date. By that I mean it will reset the file every time the date changes (rather than by session, which will mean you have to save the file every time you close and restart the program).

Also, another reason why I'm doing this is because at the moment you might accidentally change the main file when copying parts of it to post here, so it's probably better if you either don't open it at all or just open it for looking at the overall results.

Carry on as you are for the moment, I'll send you a pm when I've coded the changes.

Okay Bayes I will look out for it.

TwoCatSam · Aug 08, 08:13 AM 2012

Bayes said:

"I've put quite a bit of effort into making sure that they can't cheat, or rather, not that they CAN'T cheat (I can't stop that) but that if they do, then I'll know about it."

I know you have, Bayes. And I totally appreciate it. I guess I'm being a bug.

But here's the deal...............

If JL is totally on the level, he will have done something truly noteworthy. He may deserve a place in history. We would not want him to achieve this lofty goal with a spot on his shirt, would we?

In fact, I suggest a urine test at the finish line to see if he's doping!!

Again, thanks to both of you.

Silly Sam (As John calls me.)

Ralph · Aug 08, 08:47 AM 2012

I use to think a 2 doz system is hard to run for long. I have today start test a method using two cols, which of course can be run on dozens. Got 200 unit plus today, so there may be system which can work. I will test it more and come back if it holds to 1000.

(I will not post it here!)

superman · Aug 08, 09:15 AM 2012

QuoteI will test it more and come back if it holds to 1000

If it does Ralph, start a new thread for it so this thread can remain on the JL Challenge

Bayes · Aug 09, 07:55 AM 2012

I've just realized that this method I'm using with the hash isn't such a good idea.

You can easily generate a SHA-1 online, so if you wanted to cheat you could do this:

1. Find a line in the results file you want to change.
2. Generate the hash for it using the online generator
3. Search the hash file for the number generated in (2)
4. Go back to the results file and make the changes
5. Generate the hash for this new text using the online generator
6. replace the hash found in (3) for the new one generated in (5)

Job done. So now you have successfully modified the file and all the hash numbers will match the corresponding text!

Ralph · Aug 09, 08:10 AM 2012

Will then the salt be the same for both encrypted files?

TwoCatSam · Aug 09, 08:38 AM 2012

Quote from: Bayes on Aug 09, 07:55 AM 2012
I've just realized that this method I'm using with the hash isn't such a good idea.

You can easily generate a SHA-1 online, so if you wanted to cheat you could do this:

1. Find a line in the results file you want to change.
2. Generate the hash for it using the online generator
3. Search the hash file for the number generated in (2)
4. Go back to the results file and make the changes
5. Generate the hash for this new text using the online generator
6. replace the hash found in (3) for the new one generated in (5)

Job done. So now you have successfully modified the file and all the hash numbers will match the corresponding text!

Bayes

Your post begs the question: Is John very good at roulette or very good at doing the above? If I read your post correctly, the whole test could be flawed. The verb is could be, not is, John.

Seriously, how will we ever know?

Sam

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