EC Money / JL Challenge

[Skakus]

 
To be honest, to run EC Money over 5 stages requires a bigger lifetime bankroll than I have here. The last lost game was at stage 5 of the betting, which was a very expensive loss. So I've been lucky to get away with it this far.

I'm thinking of compressing the stages back to only 3.

Losses will be less costly, and lost ground easier to make up. I'll think about the best way to do it for a while then get back to betting.

[Bayes]

I'm just experimenting with different ways to play, that's all.


Bayes,

>>> Current z-score is 1.57 (probability is about 1 in 17). <<<

Does that mean my results thus far is almost the same as if I had just put one big bet on 1 split and won? If so, then I'm in trouble despite the good start.

If its the other way around and its almost the same as if I had put one big bet on 35 numbers, then I might be able to claw my way to victory, but it will be tough, very tough.

You can't really make those kinds of comparisons. IF your bet selection has no advantage, then the average of the z-scores will tend towards zero, in the same way that over time the ratio of reds to blacks tends to 1. If the bet selection gives a flat bet advantage, no matter how small, then the z-score will increase as you make more bets, but the bottom line is, are you making a profit?

If you're just experimenting, then just carry on as you are, don't read too much into the z-score at this stage. It's not as if you have something to prove, like JL does.

[F_LAT_INO]

How do I get those test numbers Bayes,as wish to test on your numbers.

[Still]

I'm working on a more sophisticated spreadsheet to track all of this; charts and stats. 
One click does all. 
Any number of participants.
It'll query the web, run calculations, and make charts. 
Will need to know how to calculate the Z-Score.
Any other stats anyone wants to know PM me. 
It can calculate stats on an isolated period in the overall string of bets...and chart it.   

Proposed Stats:

Name
Description
Start_Date
Last_Date
Days
Sessions
Bets
Balance_Start
Balance_End
Balance_Flat
High_Managed
Low_Managed
High_Flat
Low_Flat
Units_Bet_Largest
Units_Bet_Average
Average_Units_Gain_Per_Bet
Avg_Win
Avg_Loss
Avg_Sessions_Per_Day
Avg_Bets_Per_Session
Bets_Since_Last_Refresh

[Bayes]

How do I get those test numbers Bayes,as wish to test on your numbers.

FLAT,

In the JL Challenge thread: link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9697.0

In reply #4 I uploaded a couple of thousand spins generated by the RNG. Or you can download a version of the software in reply #146.

[Bayes]

I'm thinking of compressing the stages back to only 3.

Good idea. 

Also, in my humble opinion, I would go easy on increasing the stakes too much after wins. I know a lot of people think that it's safer, but it really isn't. I keep the D'Alembert principle in mind at all times: every pair of W/L gives you 1 unit. Depending on how much I'm down and what my target is (in units per X spins - and this is flexible), I would use the different stages to recover the losses and achieve my target.

But, feel free to ignore any of the above. 

[Skakus]

Hi Still,

Thanks for offering to write the spreadsheet.
Can I suggest you post it in the main JL challenge thread? link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9697.195

After all, my challenge and this thread are only an aside to JL’s challenge.

Thanks again for your input.

[Skakus]

FINALLY!

At long last I have broken through the 900 units barrier today! I hope I can continue to go up from here with a slight increase in stakes from this point.   

[Skakus]

CRUD!

Every time I open my mouth I get beaten to a pulp by this game! LoL!


Got to +900 units then hit 2 wipeout sequences in a row that dropped me back to 654 units. Have since clawed it back to 735 units on the back of a 10 in a row win streak!

I just checked my wL registry and it shows 2590 total bets for 1307 wins and 1283 losses.

That's a flat bet profit of 24 units or .92%. I'll take that I guess.

The EC Money Management plan must be doing something right because the actual profit is 435 units. I haven't bothered to calculate the profit %, but it's likely to be a similar figure to the flat bet amount of .92%, but I hope it's at least a little bit more otherwise what's the point?

My z-score is about 1.9 I'll take that too I guess.

[amk]

CRUD! Every time I open my mouth I get beaten to a pulp by this game! LoL!


That's funny Skakus. Makes ya think. Sometimes during testing by hand I think to myself this method is about to start losing and it does. Usually around its averages. 


Can I find what method you are playing anywhere? Might have missed something. Hope we see JLs new playing style soon as well.


By the way, is your avatar from the old time machine movie? 

[Skakus]

CRUD! Every time I open my mouth I get beaten to a pulp by this game! LoL!


That's funny Skakus. Makes ya think. Sometimes during testing by hand I think to myself this method is about to start losing and it does. Usually around its averages.

Yes it makes you wonder. 


Can I find what method you are playing anywhere? Might have missed something. Hope we see JLs new playing style soon as well.

I'm playing a combination of up to 4 EC methods. Usually 1, often 2, sometimes 3, and very occassionally 4. Sorry, you won't find any of them on the forum. Well I did mention one of them once, but only fleetingly.

By the way, is your avatar from the old time machine movie?

Yes it is a Morlock! Mwahahahaha!

[amk]

May I ask if the EC methods are flat betting or perhaps some of them etc...  I think I might see something....


Morlocks are deceptively cleaver

[Skakus]

May I ask if the EC methods are flat betting or perhaps some of them etc...  I think I might see something....


amk, you could play them all flat betting. Tell us what you think you see?

Morlocks are deceptively cleaver

Scary too!

I tallied the betting up to the point of my previous post.


Factored Flat Bet:

Total outlay: 24704 units / 2590 bets = 9.54 units per bet average.

9.54 units x 1307 wins = 24937 units: Profit = 233 units: % = .93%



EC Money:

Total outlay: 24704 units / 2590 bets = 9.54 units per bet average.

Total return: 25139 units: Profit = 435 units: % = 1.76%.


So flat bets have earned about .93% while EC Money has earned 1.76%. Almost double.
 

I was hoping for a better edge than 1.76% but at least it has increased performance over flat betting so far.

[Skakus]

I've taken some chances and luckily reached 1000 units.

I've made some changes to the betting format, and now that I have a healthy bankroll will reduce the bets from this point, and just plod forward or backward from here.

I would normally increase the bets, but the 50 unit limit for this challenge is a bit too small for the new format so I might as well reduce the bets and just coast along.

[Stepkevh]

well done Skakus 

what betting format do you use now ?