Probability

[beretta28]

What the probability that in 20 spins Red and Black,for instace ,hit exactly ten times each?
See my new topic in Money Management section

[Bayes]

Hi beretta,

P = 17.62%

Use the binomial calculator at link:://:.stat.tamu.edu/~west/applets/binomialdemo.html for all such questions. 

BTW, did you used to post at the old VIP forum using the name "viola" or something like that?

[beretta28]

Thank for your answer.
This %,that is a bit better than to play 30 numbers, the MM I found is not very interesting.
NO I don't know viola

[Robeenhuut]

Hola Beretta

Can you elaborate a bit how you want to take advantage of a perfect split.  It happens not that often?

Regards

[beretta28]

The probability of 10 Black and 10 Red or other ECs is 17,62%.(See Bayes post)
Too high! Too risky the MM I mentioned  above.
Honestly speaking I thought % was lower.
There are a lot of progressions or systems that tend to exploit the fact that the equilibrium is difficult to achieve and the unbalance (ecart) is more frequent
All positive progressions,for example, count on unbalance.
At the opposite,one of the raison why other systems are considered too dangerous is because they are looking for the equilibrium(D'Alembert,Bread Winner etc),that is difficult to reach.
I' m still convinced that to find 10/10 is rare(1 session out of 5,86 sessions of 20 spins),but not enough for building up a roulette strategy-
.Once agin roulette demonstrates that math is on its side.

[Bayes]

beretta,

In general, the longer the sequence, the harder it is for perfect equilibrium. Would the idea work for longer sequences maybe?

For example, taking 40 spins instead of 20, the chance of exactly 20 reds/blacks comes down to 12.5%

Just a thought. But I know if you follow through the maths it always comes out negative.

[Robeenhuut]

beretta,

In general, the longer the sequence, the harder it is for perfect equilibrium. Would the idea work for longer sequences maybe?

For example, taking 40 spins instead of 20, the chance of exactly 20 reds/blacks comes down to 12.5%

Just a thought. But I know if you follow through the maths it always comes out negative.

I absolutely agree.  Take math out of equilibrium. You can not beat roulette by applying law of probability and distribution. You just can use them to prove that something wont work.
But you still get lots of systems based on law of the 3rd applied in a completely wrong way